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Question: Which VP pick moved the needle more in their home state?
John Edwards (D-NC) in 2004   -20 (38.5%)
Paul Ryan (R-WI) in 2012   -32 (61.5%)
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Total Voters: 52

Author Topic: Which VP pick moved the needle more in their home state?  (Read 1222 times)
JRP1994
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« on: August 22, 2014, 08:27:29 pm »
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Voe!
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mollybecky
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« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2014, 09:47:30 pm »
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Of the VP picks from the last 50 years, probably Ed Muskie in 1968 did the most to help his ticket--winning Maine, a state that almost always went Republican (and would do so again for the next 20 years).

After that--until Sarah Palin was chosen as McCain's running mate, Alaska was considered to be a somewhat competitive state in 2008.
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BeyondTruthAndIdeals
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« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2014, 10:16:01 pm »
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Paul Ryan. He actually put Wisconsin into play despite all his faults.
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Lol - you guys are unbelievable.

A poll shows Brown up 1 in NH? Throw it in the trash.
A poll shows Begich up 10 (?!?) in Alaska? MUST BE GOOD,DEMS GUNNA KEEP THE SENATE
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Winfield
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« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2014, 12:39:58 am »
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Ryan.

Kerry's southern strategy with Edwards didn't help him at all.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2014, 08:41:12 am »
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Paul Ryan. He actually put Wisconsin into play despite all his faults.

Yes, the ticket lost Wisconsin by seven points instead of ten.  That is quite an improvement (snicker).

Though yes, it was a lot better than what Edward brought for Kerry, which was almost absolutely nothing (.38% shift is certainly great, amirite guise?).
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bronz4141
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« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2014, 10:19:00 am »
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Ryan moved the needle in Wisconsin because it was somewhat competitive until the end.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2014, 12:28:12 pm »
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Ryan gave Romney a small bump in Wisconsin once he picked him, which ended up dissipating and had no effect whatsoever on the final margin. But I don't think Edwards even gave Kerry a temporary bump. Of VP nominees from the last 4 elections, ironically, Sarah Palin probably gave the biggest home state boost.
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Heimdal
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« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2014, 01:25:44 pm »
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Of the VP picks from the last 50 years, probably Ed Muskie in 1968 did the most to help his ticket--winning Maine, a state that almost always went Republican (and would do so again for the next 20 years).

It is a bit more than 50 years, but Texas in the 1960 Election probably falls into the same category. The reason the Democrats won it was Lyndon Johnson.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2014, 04:04:44 pm »
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Both of them ended up affecting almost nothing in both of those states. But Wisconsin trended R in 2012 whereas North Carolina trended D in 2004, so I'll go with Ryan.
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Endorsements:

WI-1: Paul Ryan
Gov/Lt. Gov: Scott Walker/Rebecca Kleefisch
AG: Tom Nelson
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Treasurer: Matt Adamczyk
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TDAS04
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« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2014, 05:06:32 pm »
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Ryan gave Romney a small bump in Wisconsin once he picked him, which ended up dissipating and had no effect whatsoever on the final margin. But I don't think Edwards even gave Kerry a temporary bump. Of VP nominees from the last 4 elections, ironically, Sarah Palin probably gave the biggest home state boost.

Palin and Biden, and possibly Cheney.  Palin and Biden clearly helped their respective tickets overperform in Alaska and Delaware, respectively, in 2008.  The home state boost tends to be most significant in small states.   
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johnbuterbaugh
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« Reply #10 on: August 24, 2014, 01:53:20 pm »
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Cheney's home state of Wyoming saw the biggest trend toward Republicans of any vice presidential nominee's home state since 1960. However, there were other Mountain West states that were part of this trend. Part of this is due to the fact that Mountain West ranchers disapproved of Al Gore's environmental policies. The question of which vice presidential nominee moved the needle more in their home state is rather difficult to quantify considering that there are so many variables.
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MormDem
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« Reply #11 on: September 03, 2014, 11:13:28 pm »
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This question is very ambiguous, taken the way I think the OP wanted it,I'd vote that Ryan did more to help the ticket.

But the question could be asking which VP moved the needle against in general too,in which case I wouldn't be surprised if Edwards managed to make North Carolina more Republican than before,moreso than Ryan may have helped bring Wisconsin to Romney for a bit.

But I'd go with either  George Bush, or Walter Mondale overall in the past 50 years.
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sg0508
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« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2014, 06:55:02 am »
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It's not often who you pick, but rather who you don't pick.  Ford's choice of Dole in '76 could have decided the election.  Rockefeller would have helped immensely in the industrial states, not to mention Ford's wins in the midwest and plains were still relatively weak with Dole. 

WI was voting Democratic again anyhow this time around.  Edwards did little for Kerry, but Kerry's campaign was inept to begin with.  He never put enough pressure on George Bush to begin with.
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SJG
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« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2014, 03:35:24 pm »
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Ryan barely affected the margin in Wisconsin at all (he was worth a few points in his own congressional district, and nothing outside of it), but that's still better than Edwards, who did not affect the margin in North Carolina whatsoever, except with his own personal vote.
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Wulfric
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« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2014, 07:38:53 pm »
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Let's compare:

Wisconsin 2008: Obama +13.9
Wisconsin 2012: Obama +6.9
2012 National Swing: Romney +3.3

If Wisconsin only swung with the nation, it would have been Obama +10.6. Clearly, Paul Ryan was a significant help, but not significant enough to make Romney actually win the state. On the other hand:

North Carolina 2000: Bush +12.8
North Carolina 2004: Bush +12.4
2004 National Swing: Bush +2.9

So, Edwards kept NC from swinging with the nation, and even narrowed the margin a bit from 2000, but the overall effect was far less than Ryan in WI.

Let's look at another: Sarah Palin

Alaska 2004: Bush +25.6
Alaska 2008: Bush +21.5
2008 National Swing: Obama +9.6

So, Alaska swings, but not nearly as much as the nation did. Palin definitely helped.

And to close this off, let's look at Cheney. 1996 was crazy (Perot), so let's compare the Wyoming margins of the 21st century:

Wyoming 2000: Bush +40.1
Wyoming 2004: Bush +39.8
Wyoming 2008: McCain +32.2
Wyoming 2012: Romney +40.8

So, it looks like Cheney's effect in Wyoming wasn't much - Romney achieved an even bigger margin, and 2008 can be explained by that year's national swing. But to answer the question in the poll, Ryan definitely wins over Edwards.
« Last Edit: September 23, 2014, 07:59:25 pm by Wulfric »Logged

2014 Election Analysis (Last Updated 10/23)
House Majority: Safe R
Senate Analysis: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1P4ZVwqad-wGL8AkJttKX0KC5nR1Vosm55-7rwwKm3vc
Gubernatorial Analysis: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1A1mu7pFB0ToHuKAC2K_iu_cFbRlM7qRMGeFblSgRuDU



IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: September 23, 2014, 07:41:43 pm »
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Let's compare:

Wisconsin 2008: Obama +13.9
Wisconsin 2012: Obama +6.9
2012 National Swing: Romney +3.3

If Wisconsin only swung with the nation, it would have been Obama +10.6. Clearly, Paul Ryan was a significant help, but not significant enough to make Romney actually win the state. On the other hand:

North Carolina 2000: Bush +12.8
North Carolina 2004: Bush +12.4
2004 National Swing: Bush +2.9

So, Edwards kept NC from swinging with the nation, and even narrowed the margin a bit from 2000, but the overall effect was far less than Ryan in WI.

Let's look at another: Sarah Palin

Alaska 2004: Bush +25.6
Alaska 2008: Bush +21.5
2008 National Swing: Obama +9.6

So, Alaska swings, but nearly as much as the nation did. Palin definitely helped.

And to close this off, let's look at Cheney. 1996 was crazy (Perot), so let's compare the Wyoming margins of the 21st century:

Wyoming 2000: Bush +40.1
Wyoming 2004: Bush +39.8
Wyoming 2008: McCain +32.2
Wyoming 2012: Romney +40.8

So, it looks like Cheney's effect in Wyoming wasn't much - Romney achieved an even bigger margin, and 2008 can be explained by that year's national swing. But to answer the question in the poll, Ryan definitely wins over Edwards.

But Michigan swung by pretty much the same margin as Wisconsin did, so it isn't a perfect comparison.
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Wulfric
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« Reply #16 on: September 23, 2014, 07:58:51 pm »
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Let's compare:

Wisconsin 2008: Obama +13.9
Wisconsin 2012: Obama +6.9
2012 National Swing: Romney +3.3

If Wisconsin only swung with the nation, it would have been Obama +10.6. Clearly, Paul Ryan was a significant help, but not significant enough to make Romney actually win the state. On the other hand:

North Carolina 2000: Bush +12.8
North Carolina 2004: Bush +12.4
2004 National Swing: Bush +2.9

So, Edwards kept NC from swinging with the nation, and even narrowed the margin a bit from 2000, but the overall effect was far less than Ryan in WI.

Let's look at another: Sarah Palin

Alaska 2004: Bush +25.6
Alaska 2008: Bush +21.5
2008 National Swing: Obama +9.6

So, Alaska swings, but nearly as much as the nation did. Palin definitely helped.

And to close this off, let's look at Cheney. 1996 was crazy (Perot), so let's compare the Wyoming margins of the 21st century:

Wyoming 2000: Bush +40.1
Wyoming 2004: Bush +39.8
Wyoming 2008: McCain +32.2
Wyoming 2012: Romney +40.8

So, it looks like Cheney's effect in Wyoming wasn't much - Romney achieved an even bigger margin, and 2008 can be explained by that year's national swing. But to answer the question in the poll, Ryan definitely wins over Edwards.

But Michigan swung by pretty much the same margin as Wisconsin did, so it isn't a perfect comparison.
The reason why Michigan swung by more than the nation did is simple: Romney birth state effect
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2014 Election Analysis (Last Updated 10/23)
House Majority: Safe R
Senate Analysis: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1P4ZVwqad-wGL8AkJttKX0KC5nR1Vosm55-7rwwKm3vc
Gubernatorial Analysis: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1A1mu7pFB0ToHuKAC2K_iu_cFbRlM7qRMGeFblSgRuDU



pendragon
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« Reply #17 on: September 23, 2014, 08:36:43 pm »
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VP picks who may have flipped their home states (with margin of victory):

Al Gore, TN, 1992 (4.65%) and 1996 (2.41%)
Dan Quayle, IN, 1992 (6.11%)
Walter Mondale, MN, 1980 (3.94%)
Bob Dole, KS, 1976 (7.55%) - an unusually poor showing for a Republican in Kansas, so Dole may have actually hurt
Ed Muskie, ME, 1968 (12.23%) - a large margin of victory, but ME was very Repub at the time, so Muskie probably delivered it
Lyndon Johnson, TX, 1960 (2.00%) - helped by Johnson's popularity amongst the dead as well as the living
John Bricker, OH, 1944 (0.37%)
Harry Truman, MO, 1944 (2.94%)
Joseph Robinson, AR, 1928 (20.96%) - Hoover won 4/6 neighboring states due to anti-Catholicism
Charles Fairbanks, IN, 1916 (0.97%)
Hiram Johnson (Progressive), CA, 1912 (0.03%)
Theodore Roosevelt, NY, 1900 (9.27%) - I'm including all where the margin is under 10%
Adlai Stevenson I, IL, 1892 (3.09%)
Levi Morton, NY, 1888 (1.09%) - decided the election!
Thomas Hendricks, IN, 1884 (1.32%)
John Logan, IL, 1884 (3.73%)
Chester Arthur, NY, 1880 (1.91%) - decided the election!
Thomas Hendricks, IN, 1876 (1.26%)
B. Gratz Brown, MO, 1872 (11.81%) - Grant won VA (where Democrats had already replaced the Reconstruction administration), DE and WV, and only lost MD, KY, and TN by small margins
Schuyler Colfax, IN, 1868 (2.79%)
John Breckinridge, KY, 1856 (5.09%)
Theodore Frelinghuysen (Whig), NJ, 1844 (1.08%)
George Dallas, PA, 1844 (1.91%)
Martin Van Buren, NY, 1832 (4.21%)
John Calhoun (Republican), SC, 1824 - may have been the reason SC gave its electoral and house votes to Jackson instead of Crawford
Aaron Burr (Republican), NY, 1800 - Burr led a takeover of the Federalist state legislature by the Republicans, NY decided the election

Joseph Robinson in 1928 was probably the "MVP" (pardon the lame pun) in the 20th century for how much he probably swung AR to Al Smith, followed by Ed Muskie in Maine. Aaron Burr is probably a good all-time pick, since the (Democratic-)Republican/Democratic machine he created ran the state completely uninterrupted until it split over slavery in the late 1830s.
« Last Edit: September 23, 2014, 09:13:23 pm by pendragon »Logged
nclib
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« Reply #18 on: September 28, 2014, 09:12:38 pm »
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Both of them ended up affecting almost nothing in both of those states. But Wisconsin trended R in 2012 whereas North Carolina trended D in 2004, so I'll go with Ryan.

Wouldn't this mean that both states trended towards their VP candidate? FTR, NC trended more Dem in 2004 than 2008.
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