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April 24, 2014, 08:38:38 pm
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| |-+  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: True Federalist)
| | |-+  Exit polls show Clinton would have carried CO in 1996 with no Perot
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Author Topic: Exit polls show Clinton would have carried CO in 1996 with no Perot  (Read 188 times)
ShadowOfTheWave
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« on: April 22, 2014, 05:38:24 pm »
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The consensus is that Perot took votes mostly from Dole, but in CO it appears he took at least 3% off of Clinton: http://www.cnnstudentnews.cnn.com/ELECTION/COPxp.html
« Last Edit: April 22, 2014, 06:13:52 pm by ShadowOfTheWave »Logged
Meursault
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« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2014, 06:01:23 pm »
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Perot probably hurt Clinton more generally in 1996 than Dole, owing to NAFTA.
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #2 on: April 22, 2014, 07:32:27 pm »
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The consensus is that Perot took votes mostly from Dole, but in CO it appears he took at least 3% off of Clinton: http://www.cnnstudentnews.cnn.com/ELECTION/COPxp.html

That exit poll also showed Perot voters splitting 34-28 Dole (with 34% abstaining), so I would think that result speaks more to flaws in the exit poll than Perot costing Clinton votes.
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« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2014, 09:14:35 pm »
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CO was too close in '96 to really take exit polls seriously. It would have come down to final count. Who knows?
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"'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry 2016!
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« Reply #4 on: April 22, 2014, 09:26:13 pm »
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The consensus is that Perot took votes mostly from Dole, but in CO it appears he took at least 3% off of Clinton: http://www.cnnstudentnews.cnn.com/ELECTION/COPxp.html

That exit poll also showed Perot voters splitting 34-28 Dole (with 34% abstaining), so I would think that result speaks more to flaws in the exit poll than Perot costing Clinton votes.

Yeah, the exit poll is wrong - if you do the math on the gender split, Clinton does better in the exit poll (44.76%) than he did IRL (44.43%). I've noticed the same thing happens with 2000  - the "revised" exits overestimated Bush in Florida and New Hampshire, so you sometimes get arguments that Nader didn't really cost Gore those states.

Speaking of Nader, he was on the ballot in CO in '96 and did rather well (almost 2%). So that would explain part of Clinton's loss.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2014, 09:31:54 pm by "'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry 2016! »Logged
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