Could John McCain have won the New York State in 2000?

[UWS]

According to these series of polls published by Quinnipiac, John McCain was polling better than George W. Bush against Al Gore and Bill Bradley in the New York State, a Democratic stronghold. In the last Quinnipiac poll released in New York on March 1 2000 before McCain dropped out of the Republican presidential primary race, Bush trails Gore with 36 % of the voting intentions and 53 % for Gore while McCain trails Gore by only one percentage point (44 % for Gore and 43 % for McCain) and even tops Bill Bradley with 44 % of the voting intentions over Bradley's 39 %.

So the question is due to his maverick and moderate faith and his better ability to attract independent voters than Bush, could John McCain have won the New York State or just made it  ompetitive if he won the Republican nomination in 2000?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York,_2000#Polling_2

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Against Jesse Jackson, maybe.

[Lord Admirale]

It's possible, but it'd be by the same margin that Bush won Florida OTL.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

John McCain would have won WI

[Lord Admirale]

John McCain would have won WI

West Virginia was Bush/Rove's idea, so it'd go Democrat. It went for Dukakis, for God's sake. Dukakis.

Gore does better in the south, while McCain does better in the north. Something like this.

Senator John McCain (R-AZ)/Governor John Engler (R-MI) - 324 EV
Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)/Senator Bob Graham (D-FL) - 214 EV

Gore wins New York 48-47. McCain, who was a very moderate Republican in 2000, wins the suburban vote (hence New Jersey goes Republican and Connecticut is close), and actually spends time in California (which was still considered a swing state in 2000 with McCain leading in some polls to boot). Pete Wilson's damage, however, still drives Latinos to vote Democrat there. As McCain is not a strong conservative, southerners vote more in favor of Gore, causing Arkansas, Tennessee, and Missouri to stay Democratic this election.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

According to these series of polls published by Quinnipiac, John McCain was polling better than George W. Bush against Al Gore and Bill Bradley in the New York State, a Democratic stronghold. In the last Quinnipiac poll released in New York on March 1 2000 before McCain dropped out of the Republican presidential primary race, Bush trails Gore with 36 % of the voting intentions and 53 % for Gore while McCain trails Gore by only one percentage point (44 % for Gore and 43 % for McCain) and even tops Bill Bradley with 44 % of the voting intentions over Bradley's 39 %.

So the question is due to his maverick and moderate faith and his better ability to attract independent voters than Bush, could John McCain have won the New York State or just made it  ompetitive if he won the Republican nomination in 2000?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York,_2000#Polling_2

The poll gave Bush 36%, very close to Bush's result in NY, but Gore picked up 7 pts versus the poll.   In line with this, about 44% for McCain versus 52% for Gore is a reasonable guess.

[The Govanah Jake]

No way. McCain would do better in the suburbs and in downstate New York and Long Island (And Probably also win Richmond County and maybe Suffolk in the process) and do around the same in Upstate New York or a little Better but that wouldn't be enough to outvote New York City and the Upstate City's which hold a lock on state politics. I could see he could get it to 54-41/2 at best or something like 57-39 at worst. Doing better then bush of course but losing the state by a good margin. Bill Bradly too if he was the nominee would still win here by a good margin but probably more towards the best McCain Percentage then the worst.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Gore/Lieberman  (D)     51.4%
McCain/Kasich     (R)    43.1%
Nader/LaDuke     (G)      3.7%
Buchanan/Foster (RTL)   1.2%

[Lechasseur]

No, not against the Democrats who ran IRL (Gore and Bradley) at anyrate

[darklordoftech]

I don't think New York would vote Republican under any circumstances whatsoever after 1984.

[Suburbia]

Yes

Enough to pull Lazio and Franks in the Senate as well

[Asenath Waite]

John McCain would have won WI

West Virginia was Bush/Rove's idea, so it'd go Democrat. It went for Dukakis, for God's sake. Dukakis.

Gore does better in the south, while McCain does better in the north. Something like this.

Senator John McCain (R-AZ)/Governor John Engler (R-MI) - 324 EV
Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)/Senator Bob Graham (D-FL) - 214 EV

Gore wins New York 48-47. McCain, who was a very moderate Republican in 2000, wins the suburban vote (hence New Jersey goes Republican and Connecticut is close), and actually spends time in California (which was still considered a swing state in 2000 with McCain leading in some polls to boot). Pete Wilson's damage, however, still drives Latinos to vote Democrat there. As McCain is not a strong conservative, southerners vote more in favor of Gore, causing Arkansas, Tennessee, and Missouri to stay Democratic this election.

Pat Buchanan probably gets more votes ITTL from disgruntled evangelicals in the south. This actually may be a timeline in which Buchanan and Nader combined get close to 10% since there'd be more disgruntled progressives willing to risk a McCain presidency then a Bush one OTL.

[Agonized-Statism]

That's a hard sell. If nothing else, why would a state that reelected Clinton/Gore by 59% feel the need to vote against the incumbent Vice President? What would McCain have brought to the table to flip so many New Yorkers?

[Suburbia]

McCain wins NY because he is a good fit for the state. McCain does well on Long Island.

[bagelman]

Yes

snip
Enough to pull Lazio and Franks in the Senate as well

You bump a 3 year old topic to post a map where McCain wins NY and loses IA and NM. Intentional trolling. Please let this be the last response.

[MATTROSE94]

I don't think New York would vote Republican under any circumstances whatsoever after 1984.

New York might have went Republican if George H.W. Bush selected Jack Kemp as his running mate in 1988.

[Left Wing]

Yes

snip
Enough to pull Lazio and Franks in the Senate as well

You bump a 3 year old topic to post a map where McCain wins NY and loses IA and NM. Intentional trolling. Please let this be the last response.

Bronz has been doing tons of necromancy on this board recently it’s getting really annoying.

[Suburbia]

Yes

snip
Enough to pull Lazio and Franks in the Senate as well

You bump a 3 year old topic to post a map where McCain wins NY and loses IA and NM. Intentional trolling. Please let this be the last response.

Why can't we get our minds off reality and look back at what could have been?

[Suburbia]

Yes

snip
Enough to pull Lazio and Franks in the Senate as well

You bump a 3 year old topic to post a map where McCain wins NY and loses IA and NM. Intentional trolling. Please let this be the last response.

Bronz has been doing tons of necromancy on this board recently it’s getting really annoying.

It's not annoying, it is discussion. It is good to look back at what could have been. Period.