What past election could 2020 be most similar to?

[History505]

Just going through the events of the last several months.

[SingingAnalyst]

Just going through the events of the last several months.

With any luck, 1912 (except that Trump has no chance of winning VT). Trump = Taft, Kasich = Roosevelt, generic Dem = Wilson, Green = Debs, plus we'll have the Libertarians.

[heatcharger]

Hopefully 1980, but I'll settle for 1992.

[MT Treasurer]

I think it will be another 2004, with Trump narrowly winning the EC but losing the PV by 2 or 3 points. I could also see it being another 2008 (if Trump isn't the nominee) or 2000. Who knows.

Also: GA 2020 = VA 2004.

[SingingAnalyst]

I think it will be another 2004, with Trump narrowly winning the EC but losing the PV by 2 or 3 points. I could also see it being another 2008 (if Trump isn't the nominee) or 2000. Who knows.

Also: GA 2020 = VA 2004.

I sure hope it isn't another 2004, with the outcome you describe. I can't think of anything worse for the country. The protests and civil unrest would probably worse than in 2016.

[Medal506]

I would say 1976 at least in terms of the presidential election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2020 will be compared to 2006, because whoever the Dems will nominate will be ethically-free and a ethically challenged Clinton wasn't strong enough, unlike a Bernie Sanders, to beat Trump.

Dems will win the House of Rep and go on and beat Trump

[Bull Moose Base]

68, 80, 04 all still in the mix.

[The_Doctor]

A closer 1924.

[Frodo]

Probably 2000.  I agree with TD that 2024 will be most similar to 1980 (with Democrats driving the realignment this time).   

[Suburbia]

2004. The 2024 election will be like a 2000-like election.

[Skill and Chance]

Bad Economy: 1912 with a Romney-flavored independent or 1932

Good Economy: 1996, 1904 or 1924 with a Bernie-flavored independent

Impeachment Level Trump Scandals: 1976 or reverse 1868

Still think it will be one of the first 2, but a narrow Trump loss based on his personal failings is looking more possible now, and would probably involve a historically weird Dem coalition.  I think Trump winning narrowly again is the least likely outcome.  Either way, party ideologies are starting to get scrambled enough that I expect to see a yuge blowout election for one side or the other by 2024 at the latest.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I think it will be another 2004, with Trump Pence narrowly winning the EC but possibly losing the PV by 2 or 3 points. I could see it being a 1980 style realignment though

[Mr. Smith]

1980, regrettably without the the 3rd party to steal away 6% of the vote mostly likely. [So basically, an inverse of 1980 if Carter had gotten 47% of the vote, kept The South, MA, flipped Maine and Oregon]

If the GOP manages to find some other short-term crisis, or the 2018 takeover works as well the Tea Party, then probably 2004.

[Skill and Chance]

What would a modern 1976 even look like?  Moderate Republicans bail on Trump due to his scandals while he actually increases his crossover support with working class Dems and independents?  Then the Dems go the way of Bernie and win back the Midwest in 2028 and beyond while the GOP goes back to G.W. Bush values and wins back the West in 2024?

 Something like this?

[pbrower2a]

Let's look at those going back to 1920.

2016, 2000 -- I don't see Donald Trump winning in the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote again. He must win more of the popular vote to get re-elected. This will not be a double-open-seat election.

2012 -- a mean (statistical) result for an incumbent President, but oddly the only election like it in the electoral college.  EV results have been under 57% or over 65% because losers are either taking chances to win when they are about to lose 220 electoral votes and making it close or going for broke and losing big.

Donald Trump is not Barack Obama as a politician even if the Democrats run someone as good a campaigner as Romney. Don't laugh about Romney -- he looks to have had the best performance that any challenger had against a better-than-average President.

2008 -- not an open seat. It needs a scary economic meltdown to be an analogue.

2004 -- Donald Trump in 2016 sis worse than John Kerry  in getting the popular vote. Let's see -- Dubya picked up Iowa and New Mexico but lost New Hampshire. Picking up about ten electoral votes (Minnesota) for a small state (which one?) that went for him in 2o16? Not likely.

1996 -- Donald Trump will lose whatever semblance he has of a 'good ol-boy'. Clinton won big in 1992, which hardly sets up a 1996-style result.

1992 -- An independent leaning toward the Right but proposing major reforms (Perot), the incumbent who achieved everything that he could but had no idea of what to do next (the elder Bush), and a brilliant challenger who ran one of the slickest campaigns ever... that is a strange set of realities to have as coincidences. Of course the elder Bush was a cautious and clean leader, which Trump manifestly isn't.

1988 -- Donald Trump did about as well in 2016 than Mike Dukakis in the popular vote in 1988.  That's as far as that analogy can go.

1984, 1972  -- If Donald Trump should win 49 states in 2020, then we have a dictatorship.

1980, 1932  -- A Democratic challenger winning all but 55 or so states against someone widely recognized as a failure requires about a 50-40 split of the popular vote -- and winning Texas.  I have seen polling that suggests that such is possible.

1976 -- This is a scenario out of unbelievable fiction. The successor of Richard Nixon put up a good fight to get elected, but still barely lost. Show me a Trump resignation following a Pence resignation... Paul Ryan as President? Like Ford, he has never won a statewide election and does not know how to run a Presidential campaign.

1968 -- Trump choosing not to run so that he can concentrate on something more important than winning re-election? Not a likely story. I can't see someone running as an overt segregationist against Trump's intended successor.

1964 -- I can see President Trump gutting the Great Society and the New Deal , which would make him the new Goldwater. Except that Goldwater wasn't as crazy as the LBJ campaign depicted him.

1960 --  Not an open seat, and not following a good President whose style was going obsolete.

1952, 1956 -- All that Trump has in common with Ike as President is age. I'm tempted to think that the closest analogue to Ike is Obama, who has much the same temperament and who watched his Party lose both Houses of Congress. The electoral maps involving Ike and Obama are similar if one accepts an inversion of Party affiliation between the states.

The best that the Democrats can hope for is another Obama -- or Eisenhower.

1948 -- Trump created his own mess, and for that he will pay.

1944 -- Are American troops advancing before the reeling armies of the Antichrist Hitler? I don;t think so.

1940 -- No third term, and Trump isn't FDR. This would be the likely analogy -- if Barack Obama could run for a Third Term, but for 2016.

1928 -- Peace and plenty.

1924 -- I can't see Democrats limited to the West Coast and the Northeast -- can you?

1920 -- two-term President with bad health and that Americans were getting tired of.

[Mr. Smith]

What would a modern 1976 even look like?  Moderate Republicans bail on Trump due to his scandals while he actually increases his crossover support with working class Dems and independents?  Then the Dems go the way of Bernie and win back the Midwest in 2028 and beyond while the GOP goes back to G.W. Bush values and wins back the West in 2024?

 Something like this?

We just had a modern 1976 last cycle, with some touches of '88 and 2000. The middle of which would've followed to the end if Hillary had held out.


This means 2004 or 1980 are most likely to happen, we dodged 1992 by 70,000 votes.  Hillary would've gone out even worse in 2020.

[TDAS04]

Hopefully 1980, but I'll settle for 1992.

[Orser67]

Somewhere between 1980 and 2004. Those represent the worst- and best-case scenarios for Trump. In a 1980-style election, Trump defeats a primary challenge but then gets destroyed in the general. In a 2004-style election, Trump rallies his base to narrowly win re-election.

1980:

2004:

[Hammy]

Most likely 2016.

[AppleJackass]

1984

[Kingpoleon]

I predict either 2004, 1992, or 1976.

[Middle-aged Europe]

1980 if Trump is president, 1976 if Pence is president.

[Medal506]

What would a modern 1976 even look like?  Moderate Republicans bail on Trump due to his scandals while he actually increases his crossover support with working class Dems and independents?  Then the Dems go the way of Bernie and win back the Midwest in 2028 and beyond while the GOP goes back to G.W. Bush values and wins back the West in 2024?

 Something like this?

My guess is the Republicans finally nominate a true conservative like Ted Cruz or Matt Bevin and they wipe the floor with whoever the democratic Incumbant president is wether it's Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, whoever

[dw93]

If Trump is still President and running for re election:

Best Case Scenario for the GOP: 2004. Trump loses one of the three rust belt states that made him President (Bush won NH in '00, but lost it in '04) and makes up for it with a western or northeastern state (Bush made up for NH in '04 by winning NM and IA, two states he lost in '00) and narrowly wins re election.

Worst Case Scenario for the GOP: 1980. The Democratic nominee carries all of the Clinton '16 states plus the three rust belt states that made Trump President, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Maine CD-2, NE CD-2,  North Carolina, Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, Texas, Georgia, Alaska, and Montana. The Dems win 440 EVs to 98 EVs for the GOP. House and/or Senate are also Democratic.

Some have said 1992, but I don't see it. Bush 41 at least had a successful Foreign Policy going for him and I don't see a Perot like third party candidate happening again until at least 2024 or 2028 at the earliest.

If Trump is removed from Office or resigns and/or does not seek another term:

Best Case Scenario for the GOP: 1948. An upset election where the Democrats are expected to win handily, even by Republicans, but with the Democrats even more complacent and arrogant  than Clinton and her campaign were in 2016, the underdog Republican nominee (Pence, or someone like Kasich), really play their cards right and wins both the electoral college and the popular vote by a respectable, even decisive margin.

Worst Case Scenario for the GOP: 1968 or 2008 for various reasons. Take your pick.