DCCC expands their target list

[jamestroll]

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/democrats-say-they-ll-target-republican-ann-wagner-s-congressional/article_0b86a4d2-f069-5e25-a393-bf2ffde452b6.html

Missouri-02

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It has rich suburbanites who are still turned off by Trump and some old school redneck Democrats who voted Republican in recent years but maybe more open to voting Democrat now. It did make a swing to Clinton and is not that Republican locally at all.

Wagner's large margin's of victories should not scare anyone. No Democrat has seriously contested the district this decade. Still if a Democrat wins this it is likely for only one or two terms. Population shifts and redistricting will likely make the district solid GOP after 2020 elections. The only chance for Democrats to have three of the eight congressional seats in Missouri after that will be hoping the GOP splits up MO-05 and creates a dummymander.

Still it would be much much easier as an open seat and we must remember it still voted for Trump 51 to 42. On the flip side Kander v Blunt was essentially tied and Democrats are not exactly absent in local politics here.

Also remember this:

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tl;dr Not impossible district and viable for Democrats to compete it but it will not be as easy as other targets for sure.

[Miles]

Buttigieg should run in IN-02.

I'm a fan of Pete, but I'm also skeptical that he is able to win IN-02. Where would he find the votes to defeat Walorski outside of South Bend? The regional demographics seem to be shifting away from the Democrats in IN-02 outside of the greater South Bend area.

That being said! If Buttigeg wants to earn his "rising star" badge, he'd better win this race - a relatively moderate (if incumbent-favoring... FWIW Donnelly managed to hold on to this seat in the awful 2010 wave) WWC district should be pickup material.

IN-02 got a fair bit more conservative upon redistricting, IIRC.

Great catch. Yes, it went from R+2 to R+7. And has drifted to R+12 since. It would be a tall order for Pete.

She was running as a non-incumbent, but Walorski barely won it in 2012.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Buttigieg should run in IN-02.

I'm a fan of Pete, but I'm also skeptical that he is able to win IN-02. Where would he find the votes to defeat Walorski outside of South Bend? The regional demographics seem to be shifting away from the Democrats in IN-02 outside of the greater South Bend area.

That being said! If Buttigeg wants to earn his "rising star" badge, he'd better win this race - a relatively moderate (if incumbent-favoring... FWIW Donnelly managed to hold on to this seat in the awful 2010 wave) WWC district should be pickup material.

IN-02 got a fair bit more conservative upon redistricting, IIRC.

Great catch. Yes, it went from R+2 to R+7. And has drifted to R+12 since. It would be a tall order for Pete.

She was running as a non-incumbent, but Walorski barely won it in 2012.

Voters may have been familiar with her after her run against Donnelly in '10. Since being elected, she's faced - frankly - a couple of poor candidates and blown them out of the water. I guess long story short, Walorski isn't unbeatable, but Pete would have to run a near-perfect campaign in a near-wave situation in order to make this competitive.

[Brittain33]

Would Buttigieg hold out for IN-Gov in 2020?

[Skill and Chance]

I'm surprised that my congressman made it on this list since he seems inoffensive and uncontroversial and in a comfortably Republican district.

low

Assuming you're in VA, I wouldn't call either Garrett or Brat "inoffensive" or "uncontroversial." Fair point about them being in comfortably Republican districts, although it makes sense that they would be listed as wave insurance.

Hell, Garrett is pro (ish) pot. He voted against the first obamacare repeal. He's no Robert Hurt, but he's also no Virgil Goode. I cant think of anything Garrett has said or done that would single him out from a generic republican. If Colonel tobacco lobbyist couldn't get elected in the 5th against a generic republican, I dont know who can.

I was thinking of that "small potatoes" comment he made. Obviously not enough to beat him by itself, but I wouldn't call him "inoffensive." Plus he voted in favor of the second Obamacare repeal attempt, which is what matters (unless there's a third one later).

And yeah, both Dakotas should be targeted, although I'm not optimistic about either.

VA-05 is probably Safe R from here on out.  It's VA-07 that merits more Democratic effort going forward.  It voted like GA-07 last year and it could be a future GA-06 or TX-07 in the 2020's, so building up infrastructure now is important.  Think of all the random people running for the GOP in 2010 in the historical coal mining districts in WV/KY/VA.  Because the seat was R+Yuge all through the 1990's and 2000's, there practically isn't a local Dem party there right now.

[Gass3268]

I'm surprised that my congressman made it on this list since he seems inoffensive and uncontroversial and in a comfortably Republican district.

low

Assuming you're in VA, I wouldn't call either Garrett or Brat "inoffensive" or "uncontroversial." Fair point about them being in comfortably Republican districts, although it makes sense that they would be listed as wave insurance.

Hell, Garrett is pro (ish) pot. He voted against the first obamacare repeal. He's no Robert Hurt, but he's also no Virgil Goode. I cant think of anything Garrett has said or done that would single him out from a generic republican. If Colonel tobacco lobbyist couldn't get elected in the 5th against a generic republican, I dont know who can.

I was thinking of that "small potatoes" comment he made. Obviously not enough to beat him by itself, but I wouldn't call him "inoffensive." Plus he voted in favor of the second Obamacare repeal attempt, which is what matters (unless there's a third one later).

And yeah, both Dakotas should be targeted, although I'm not optimistic about either.

VA-05 is probably Safe R from here on out.  It's VA-07 that merits more Democratic effort going forward.  It voted like GA-07 last year and it could be a future GA-06 or TX-07 in the 2020's, so building up infrastructure now is important.  Think of all the random people running for the GOP in 2010 in the historical coal mining districts in WV/KY/VA.  Because the seat was R+Yuge all through the 1990's and 2000's, there practically isn't a local Dem party there right now.

If the Democrats ever get total control in VA and could gerrymander, connecting the Charlottesville area with the Richmond area not in CD-4 could be doable.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Would Buttigieg hold out for IN-Gov in 2020?

Depends on how Holcolmb fares. He's fairly popular now, moreso than Pence prior to the latter joining the ticket. Barring a scandal or an apocalyptic environment for Republicans all around, he'd get massacred in a gubernatorial run, tbh.

His best bet to continue to advance his national profile, aside from running for IN-02 and winning, is to hope for a Democratic admin in '20 and cut some serious deals for a cabinet appointment a la Julian Castro.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm surprised that my congressman made it on this list since he seems inoffensive and uncontroversial and in a comfortably Republican district.

low

Assuming you're in VA, I wouldn't call either Garrett or Brat "inoffensive" or "uncontroversial." Fair point about them being in comfortably Republican districts, although it makes sense that they would be listed as wave insurance.

Hell, Garrett is pro (ish) pot. He voted against the first obamacare repeal. He's no Robert Hurt, but he's also no Virgil Goode. I cant think of anything Garrett has said or done that would single him out from a generic republican. If Colonel tobacco lobbyist couldn't get elected in the 5th against a generic republican, I dont know who can.

I was thinking of that "small potatoes" comment he made. Obviously not enough to beat him by itself, but I wouldn't call him "inoffensive." Plus he voted in favor of the second Obamacare repeal attempt, which is what matters (unless there's a third one later).

And yeah, both Dakotas should be targeted, although I'm not optimistic about either.

VA-05 is probably Safe R from here on out.  It's VA-07 that merits more Democratic effort going forward.  It voted like GA-07 last year and it could be a future GA-06 or TX-07 in the 2020's, so building up infrastructure now is important.  Think of all the random people running for the GOP in 2010 in the historical coal mining districts in WV/KY/VA.  Because the seat was R+Yuge all through the 1990's and 2000's, there practically isn't a local Dem party there right now.

If the Democrats ever get total control in VA and could gerrymander, connecting the Charlottesville area with the Richmond area not in CD-4 could be doable.

VA-07 as currently drawn will be a swing seat long before they get a trifecta with that House of Delegates map.  They would probably need to win half the HoD seats within VA-07 to take control of the HoD.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama won the current NY-23 in 2008. However, Hillary rather cratered there. NY-23 wants someone who makes the economy be a strong issue.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Would Buttigieg hold out for IN-Gov in 2020?

I highly doubt it - Holcomb, our Governor, is very popular and has basically gone the exact opposite route as Pence (from Religious ideologue to pragmatic, business-first)

[Hoosier_Nick]

Buttigieg should run in IN-02.

I'm a fan of Pete, but I'm also skeptical that he is able to win IN-02. Where would he find the votes to defeat Walorski outside of South Bend? The regional demographics seem to be shifting away from the Democrats in IN-02 outside of the greater South Bend area.

That being said! If Buttigeg wants to earn his "rising star" badge, he'd better win this race - a relatively moderate (if incumbent-favoring... FWIW Donnelly managed to hold on to this seat in the awful 2010 wave) WWC district should be pickup material.

IN-02 got a fair bit more conservative upon redistricting, IIRC.

Great catch. Yes, it went from R+2 to R+7. And has drifted to R+12 since. It would be a tall order for Pete.

She was running as a non-incumbent, but Walorski barely won it in 2012.

Voters may have been familiar with her after her run against Donnelly in '10. Since being elected, she's faced - frankly - a couple of poor candidates and blown them out of the water. I guess long story short, Walorski isn't unbeatable, but Pete would have to run a near-perfect campaign in a near-wave situation in order to make this competitive.

Agreed on all fronts. Pete would be the best bet, but I hesitate to think he'd win, although it would be close for sure. But then again, the district is very working class, which is a demographic that has shifted towards Republicans lately. It's one group who could certainly swing back in a Pro-Dem environment.

[Figueira]

I think NY-02 is a safe bet for being added to this list soon.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I think NY-02 is a safe bet for being added to this list soon.

I was saying Steve Bellone should run

[Rjjr77]

OH-10 is only a good target on paper. Mike Turner is very popular and always over performs. OH-14 is actually a pretty good target, though.

Agree for the most part, Turners a very popular local guy. 14 is a good target but it requires a good candidate.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Would Buttigieg hold out for IN-Gov in 2020?

I highly doubt it - Holcomb, our Governor, is very popular and has basically gone the exact opposite route as Pence (from Religious ideologue to pragmatic, business-first)

Thankfully, a Daniels redux.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Buttigieg should run in IN-02.

I'm a fan of Pete, but I'm also skeptical that he is able to win IN-02. Where would he find the votes to defeat Walorski outside of South Bend? The regional demographics seem to be shifting away from the Democrats in IN-02 outside of the greater South Bend area.

That being said! If Buttigeg wants to earn his "rising star" badge, he'd better win this race - a relatively moderate (if incumbent-favoring... FWIW Donnelly managed to hold on to this seat in the awful 2010 wave) WWC district should be pickup material.

IN-02 got a fair bit more conservative upon redistricting, IIRC.

Great catch. Yes, it went from R+2 to R+7. And has drifted to R+12 since. It would be a tall order for Pete.

She was running as a non-incumbent, but Walorski barely won it in 2012.

Voters may have been familiar with her after her run against Donnelly in '10. Since being elected, she's faced - frankly - a couple of poor candidates and blown them out of the water. I guess long story short, Walorski isn't unbeatable, but Pete would have to run a near-perfect campaign in a near-wave situation in order to make this competitive.

Agreed on all fronts. Pete would be the best bet, but I hesitate to think he'd win, although it would be close for sure. But then again, the district is very working class, which is a demographic that has shifted towards Republicans lately. It's one group who could certainly swing back in a Pro-Dem environment.

Don't forget the outside money he'd be able to raise based off of his newfound profile in Democratic circles. 

[Badger]

OH-10 is only a good target on paper. Mike Turner is very popular and always over performs. OH-14 is actually a pretty good target, though.

This. Turner will likely need a Tsunami-level wave or an unexpected scandal to lose.

[Figueira]

Not that this is particularly likely in Turner's case specifically (he's only 57), but I think it's a good idea to contest any district that looks competitive even if the incumbent is popular, since there could be a surprise retirement for all we know.

[Zioneer]

I'm disappointed that UT-04 isn't on the list. It's winnable with the right candidate. Someone who has won countywide in Salt Lake County (a plurality of the district's popularity, or even an outright majority), could win by enough there to offset expected landslide losses in Utah County, Juab County, and Sanpete County, the other three portions of the district.

There are multiple Democratic county officials who could feasibly win the seat.

[smoltchanov]

I'm disappointed that UT-04 isn't on the list. It's winnable with the right candidate. Someone who has won countywide in Salt Lake County (a plurality of the district's popularity, or even an outright majority), could win by enough there to offset expected landslide losses in Utah County, Juab County, and Sanpete County, the other three portions of the district.

There are multiple Democratic county officials who could feasibly win the seat.

You must win Salt Lake county by truly a lot. Only in an extremely strong wave probably...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm disappointed that UT-04 isn't on the list. It's winnable with the right candidate. Someone who has won countywide in Salt Lake County (a plurality of the district's popularity, or even an outright majority), could win by enough there to offset expected landslide losses in Utah County, Juab County, and Sanpete County, the other three portions of the district.

There are multiple Democratic county officials who could feasibly win the seat.

You must win Salt Lake county by truly a lot. Only in an extremely strong wave probably...

Actually, Democrats nearly held this seat in 2014, hardly a Democratic wave.

[The Arizonan]

I'm disappointed that UT-04 isn't on the list. It's winnable with the right candidate. Someone who has won countywide in Salt Lake County (a plurality of the district's popularity, or even an outright majority), could win by enough there to offset expected landslide losses in Utah County, Juab County, and Sanpete County, the other three portions of the district.

There are multiple Democratic county officials who could feasibly win the seat.

How did Jim Matheson pull it off in Utah?

[SoLongAtlas]

I'm surprised that my congressman made it on this list since he seems inoffensive and uncontroversial and in a comfortably Republican district.

low

Assuming you're in VA, I wouldn't call either Garrett or Brat "inoffensive" or "uncontroversial." Fair point about them being in comfortably Republican districts, although it makes sense that they would be listed as wave insurance.

Hell, Garrett is pro (ish) pot. He voted against the first obamacare repeal. He's no Robert Hurt, but he's also no Virgil Goode. I cant think of anything Garrett has said or done that would single him out from a generic republican. If Colonel tobacco lobbyist couldn't get elected in the 5th against a generic republican, I dont know who can.

Garrett deserves a decent challenge, he is pretty conservative with the exception of drug and domestic surveillance issues and more akin to a R+15 or so district. VA-5 is R+6. Huffstetler is a vet and a good candidate for this district. http://www.rdforva.com/ He will be painted as a Pelosi lite uber-liberal by the VA GOP however, they do this all the time, especially with mailers. I used to live in VA-5 and would throw them right into the trash.

[Zioneer]

I'll just quote these all at once for ease of responding.

You must win Salt Lake county by truly a lot. Only in an extremely strong wave probably...

I actually created a story on Daily Kos talking about this.

Basically, you need to match Jim Matheson's numbers in all the counties, maybe a little bit more assuming there's no Libertarian to get you right over the edge of victory.

You need about 52-54% in Salt Lake County (doable), roughly 27-29% in Utah County (more difficult, but also doable), and somewhere around 30% in Juab and Sanpete counties, which are sparsely populated, so I would just try and crank up the numbers in Salt Lake and Utah counties.

Actually, Democrats nearly held this seat in 2014, hardly a Democratic wave.

Indeed, Doug Owens got about 5% less than he needed in all of the counties in the district and he ended up losing by just under 5%. So it's totally doable, especially if you have won an election in the county before.

How did Jim Matheson pull it off in Utah?

By being a popular, well-known, moderate Congressman with a famous name, with the added benefit of a slightly stronger Libertarian than usual. As I said, he got just the right amount in every county, though I'm convinced that a Salt Lake County elected official could replicate or exceed those numbers in Salt Lake, and therefore win in the most populous county in the district.