Vox Populi - January 1988 General Election

[Lumine]

January 1988 - Healey dreams of a majority

Prelude: Healey has scored victories in Washington and Brussels, but the General Strike continues and a second election is to be held. Will Healey achieve his goal of a majority?

Labour Party: Now Prime Minister, Denis Healey is attempting to chart a middle course between the SLP and the Tories as the "sole alternative to govern". The Labour manifesto remains for the most part unchanged (pro-Europe, moderate to conservative social views, hawkish foreign stances, a progressive economy and limited political reform), with Healey adding the promise of a referendum of entry into Europe while rallying against his opponents for their "extremist policies".

Conservative Party: Cast into the Opposition, Norman Tebbit is attemping to regroup by exploiting the division of Labour and the SLP and the continued General Strike, advocating that only a Conservative government could be strong enough to handle the situation. The Tory manifesto also remains virtually the same (uncompromising Euroscepticism, a social conservative social and crime policy, the defence of the free market reforms, a strong but isolationist foreign policy and further investment in the NHS while lowering taxes), with Tebbit moderating his views on privatization and welfare to regain lost votes.

Liberal Party: Disappointed by having the same result than in 1982 (while gaining three MP's), Wainwright and the Liberals have redoubled the point that Tebbit and Healey are too much alike, and that the Liberal Party can provide the sensible, moderate alternative the country requires. Their manifesto continues to promote a referendum on entry into Europe, a radical large-scale package of political and government reforms, pacifism, social-liberal views, devolution and a economic prices and incomes policy. They have also proposed to lower the voting age to 16 to appeal to younger voters.

Plaid Cymru / Scottish National Party: Despite the concern regarding their electoral decline both parties haven't been able to switch leaders or strategies, fighting the campaign on the same platforms (a socialist one for the SNP, a social democratic for Plaid). Shifting most of their attention to another hung parliament, Wigley has committed to supporting a Labour government in return for major concessions on devolution, whereas MacRae has offered to support any anti-Tory government in return for an independence referendum in Scotland.

Socialist Labour Party: After a shocking breakthrough in October, Heffer is running a "one last heave" sort of campaign, noting that a few gains for the SLP would turn into the main alternative to the Tories. His platform unchanged (Euroscepticism, political reform (and abolition of the Lords), pacifist and unilateralist, social-liberal and strongly environmentalist), Heffer also rallies against Healey and the Labour right for not offering workable proposals to the trade unions on strike, and argues the Liberal Party is now irrelevant as a protest force.

Two days.

Note: Labour is now the government, there will be a 1% swing from LAB to CON.

[Kingpoleon]

The Liberals, which as of now have 27% of the vote.

[MAINEiac4434]

Christ I wish Labour were more progressive socially. Liberals, but I don't feel good about it (except lowering the voting age. FF policy Wainwright.)

[DavidB.]

Conservative.

[Dereich]

This is a difficult one. Of the real choices, Tebbit is hostile, eurosceptic, and his two years in government led to a general strike while Healy failed at his ONE job, ending the general strike. The Liberals are unfortunately a joke option and voting for them instead of the main parties just gives Socialist Labor a real chance.

I guess I'll vote Conservative in the hope that Tebbit crushes the power of the unions.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

As my main priority is always to make these things fun: Prime Minister Heffer. (Which autocorrected to Hefner initially, which would be also kind of amusing.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

STRONG AND STABLE

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Always Labour

[Intell]

Liberal.

[Maxwell]

What a nightmare - but at least we're getting somewhere with SLP falling behind. Can't wait for a united Labour.

[Lumine]

We're having excellent turnout on this one, and it's a close race between the Conservatives, Labour and the SLP (Liberals a bit behind, SNP/Plaid making limited gains). Still more than a day left.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Liberal.

[Lumine]

Boy, we're in for some fun times. Rough numbers:

CON: 285
SLP: 173
LAB: 151
LIB: 24
SNP: 6
Plaid: 4
OTH: 7

[Kingpoleon]

I have severe doubts any coalition can be made without the Liberals.

[Lumine]

Having done my dice rolls, it will be an SLP-Labour coalition with SDLP supply and confidence, at least for a year or two.

I can't find a "unity figure" of sorts to serve as PM, though, I'm pretty sure Healey or Heffer would not allow the other to become PM (and with the SLP having more votes and MP's the Prime Minister would probably have to come from their ranks).

[IceAgeComing]

Prime Minister Gerry Fitt is it, then!

[Kingpoleon]

Robert Kilroy-Silk, Peter Jay(if he's elected to Parliament), or a Callaghanite could be a good Prime Minister compromise. Shirley Williams is a bit too pro-Europe, I imagine.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Robert Kilroy-Silk, Peter Jay(if he's elected to Parliament), or a Callaghanite could be a good Prime Minister compromise. Shirley Williams is a bit too pro-Europe, I imagine.

what

Kilroy Silk?

Shirley Williams? (as a compromise with the far left, no less?)

Peter Jay? The guy best known for being the beneficiary of gross nepotoism by virtue of being Callaghan's son in law?

(Also apparantly he used to work for Robert Maxwell - and if we're throwing out ludicrous ideas, I'm going to suggest the fat Czech, so he can effectively do a Harold Holt at the end of his term.)

[Lumine]

January 1988 General Election:

January 1988 - Tebbit regains lost ground, but a coalition of the left is formed

Conservative Party: 28.9% (285 MP's)
Socialist Labour Party: 25.6% (173 MP's)
Labour Party: 24.6% (151 MP's)
Liberal Party: 16.3% (24 MP's)
Scottish National Party: 1.6% (6 MP's)
Plaid Cymru : 1% (4 MP's)
Others: 2% (7 MP's)

Despite the distaste of the voters for yet another General Election so close after the first one the January 1988 election proved most unusual, as the campaign (held in the middle of a worsening General Strike) attracted more and more voters to drive turnout to surprisingly high levels, breaking records not seen since the 1960's. It was clear through the campaign that the SLP, the Tories and Labour would battle closely in the popular vote, leading to the three main parties to do their outmost to damage their rivals at the polls. An unintended effect of this, of course, was the sustained erosion of the main parties, as negative campaigning drew voters away rather than bringing them in.

The decisive point came when Healey's proposals to end the strike were soundly rejected by the trade unions, closing off any chance of ending the matter before the election and delivering a critical blow to Healey's credibility and electoral chances. Alas, it was not Tebbit nor Heffer who took the most advantage of it (as negative ratings led to limited gains or even losses in the polls), but the Liberals. Learning from the last campaign Richard Wainwright and the Liberals had rebranded their campaign and targeted both protest and centrist voters with skill, rising above 15% in the polls to add to the uncertainty. By the time the polls closed, no party knew what to expect of the results.

Election Night resulted in another hung parliament, and a more confusing one than the last. Labour sustained heavy losses by polling a mere 24% and 151 MP's, with the SLP taking losses in the popular vote (dropping from 27 to 25%) but increasing its MP's to 171 and cementing itself as the second party. With SNP, Plaid and the Liberals also making gains (Wainwright cheerfully celebrating the election of 24 Liberal MP's), Norman Tebbit also managed to profit by clawing back into 285 MP's, a strong position. It became clear fairly soon that a return to Government for the Conservatives appeared highly unlikely (as not even a deal with the Liberals would produce a majority), and attention shifted to Heffer and Healey.

Both men resumed their past talks regarding cooperation, and faced with the prospective of another Tory government both leaders finally agreed that only a coalition between both parties would produce an alternative government. As both men were unacceptable to the other party as leaders (and were planning to resign that year), a frantic search took place for a Prime Minister who would be acceptable to both Labour and the SLP, the SLP winning the right to select the PM due to winning more seats and votes. After exploring choices that ranged from SLP MP Ken Livingstone to Labour MP's Bryan Gould and John Prescott, an unlikely choice was found in Margaret Beckett, a relatively young (45 years old) SLP MP belonging to its more moderate wing.

Later securing a "supply and confidence" arrangement with the SDLP after offering a dramatic change in direction towards Northern Ireland, the minority SLP-Labour coalition now had a majority, the stunned Margaret Beckett entering Downing Street Ten.

[Kingpoleon]

Robert Kilroy-Silk, Peter Jay(if he's elected to Parliament), or a Callaghanite could be a good Prime Minister compromise. Shirley Williams is a bit too pro-Europe, I imagine.

what

Kilroy Silk?

Shirley Williams? (as a compromise with the far left, no less?)

Peter Jay? The guy best known for being the beneficiary of gross nepotoism by virtue of being Callaghan's son in law?

(Also apparantly he used to work for Robert Maxwell - and if we're throwing out ludicrous ideas, I'm going to suggest the fat Czech, so he can effectively do a Harold Holt at the end of his term.)

Kilroy Silk is a staunch nationalist who I imagine is in SLP. Williams is a compromise for the populists in SLP. Jay is most certainly a Callaghanite.