Livingston By-Election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Following the tragic sudden death of Robin Cook, a by-election will have to be called in Livingston soon.

Description

Main population centre is Livingston (a New Town) and the constituency also contains several former coal towns.
Livingston is the at the core of the "silicon glen" and has boomed as a result of the electronics industry.

2005 Results

Lab 51%, SNP 21%, LD 15%, Con 10%, SSP 2%

[Ben.]

The more I think about it the more I miss the guy… damn it!

Interesting fact, his former wife was a heart surgeon (certainly a doctor), had he still been married to her she might have been able to resuscitate him, as it was there was no one with medical training at the scene when he collapsed on the side of a mountain… talk about irony


As  for Livingston, SNP complicate it for any LD bandwagon… though I’m sure the LibDem’s will have a candidate within the week… ginger sh*ts! Kennedy’s gushing statement was really sickening because you just know his aides are planning a flurry of trips for him to the area in the near future!   

Labour should hold on, but a by-election in that kind of seat so soon after a general election you’re looking at turnout of 38-45%... so an upset is possible from either the SNP or LibDems, LibDems probably come second, Labour eek out a win.       

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The SNP will target Livingston like mad... they'll find/create some local grievience to exploit (they even did this in the Monklands by-election after the death of John Smith... ) and run with it... the LibDems will doubtless do the same (Livingston borders western Edinburgh with all it's rich Liberal activists)... I suspect (or hope) that the two will just run into each other.
Certainly it'd be a crying shame if Cook's seat fell to the SNP of all parties...

Interestingly enough the SNP have never been able to hold onto their famous by-election wins (Motherwell, Hamilton, Glasgow Govan (both times) etc) in the next general election.

[minionofmidas]

Robin Cook is dead!? May he rest in peace. He was just about my favourite British politician.

[afleitch]

Labour will hold Livingstone easily. It is a 'new town' seat. so is not as solidly Labour in it's tradition as older central belt towns are. It's beginning to become popular with Edinburgh communters due to high house prices in the capital and from my own experience is not as depressing as Cumbernauld, a common SNP target. Labour will not break 50% here, they may not even break 40% but the opposition is split and on the streets, Labour is more popular now than for a while due to the 7/7 events and their aftermath.

For me the defining issue will be the Scottish Socialists. They are a national laughing stock, banned from Parliament until September and close to being disciplined due to failing to submit their accounts for scrutiny on time. Twice. They will try to exploit Cook's position on Iraq for their own ends, but Scots don't take to kindly to that sort of thing. It may be their last stand in Scottish politics.

[Ben.]

Labour will hold Livingstone easily. It is a 'new town' seat. so is not as solidly Labour in it's tradition as older central belt towns are. It's beginning to become popular with Edinburgh communters due to high house prices in the capital and from my own experience is not as depressing as Cumbernauld, a common SNP target. Labour will not break 50% here, they may not even break 40% but the opposition is split and on the streets, Labour is more popular now than for a while due to the 7/7 events and their aftermath.

For me the defining issue will be the Scottish Socialists. They are a national laughing stock, banned from Parliament until September and close to being disciplined due to failing to submit their accounts for scrutiny on time. Twice. They will try to exploit Cook's position on Iraq for their own ends, but Scots don't take to kindly to that sort of thing. It may be their last stand in Scottish politics.

 Afleitch

Are you active in the Socttish Conservatives by any chance?

I agree that Labour certainly shouldn’t hope to break 50%, and may very well not break 40% but the split opposition should play to their advantage with the SNP and LibDem getting into a fearful scrap to be cast as “the challenger” to Labour… no doubt the LibDem are even now selecting their candidate, no doubt Chris Reynard is perusing properties to let in Livingston town centre and little yellow researches are poring over old editions of the local rags… vulchers!

What ever happened to the SSP? Sheridan was once quite popular with a certain section of the Scottish electorate, what was the background behind him resigning as leader and what was the aftermath?           

[Rural Radical]

Im devasted by Robin Cooks death at only 59. Ironically he was probably only six months away from being back in Government.

Regarding the by election. Easy Labour hold whenever it is. There is no better time to be a Labour candidate in a by election.

[afleitch]

I'm not active in the Scottish Conservatives, but probably will be come the Scottish Elections in 1997. I was a member of the Labour Party until last summer however.

As for the SSP however, they have wasted their opportunity with schoolyard antics. They have an apalling attendance record, an agressive local campaign style (that would put even the Lib Dems to shame) and after they were barred from the parliament till after the recess, they missed the final votes and cost HEP C victims to loose compensation as a result (the bill was defeated by four votes)

[Rural Radical]

Why did you leave the Labour Party ?

[afleitch]

Because a slow self-realisation led me to believe that the Labour is not a progressive force. Quite the opposite in fact. It straight-jackets children in our school system, labels individual choice as elitist and is the standard bearer for political correctness, which has ruined this nation; 60's left wing 'trendy' sociology that has been disproven time and time again but they still push ahead regardkess. It's all very complicated i'm afraid.

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/columnist/story/0,9321,1544250,00.html

He is someone I sympathise with.

[Democratic Hawk]

Because a slow self-realisation led me to believe that the Labour is not a progressive force. Quite the opposite in fact. It straight-jackets children in our school system, labels individual choice as elitist and is the standard bearer for political correctness, which has ruined this nation; 60's left wing 'trendy' sociology that has been disproven time and time again but they still push ahead regardkess. It's all very complicated i'm afraid.

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/columnist/story/0,9321,1544250,00.html

He is someone I sympathise with.

I actually agree with you on political correctness; however, one name and one name alone predisposes me against the Conservative Party - Thatcher

Labour should win the Livingston by-election. Main challengers will be the SNP but I expect a comfortable, though reduced, majority

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nominations for the Labour shortlist have closed. 40 people have applied... while the Party hasn't disclosed the names some people have confirmed they are trying to get the nod.
One of them is Jim Devine, Robin Cook's agent. He's been endorsed by Cook's family and seems like a pretty clear favourite right now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just in: Labour have picked Jim Devine

[Ben.]

Just in: Labour have picked Jim Devine

Not really a surprise, but a good pick none the less, should be able to win this without to much trouble i would have thought unless they run a campaign like they did in Leicester South, I've never seen uglier litrature and a more muddeld message

[Peter]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4207176.stm

Date for by-election will be set for 29 September.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Word is (no idea how accurate) that the SNP might give this a miss and concentrate on a forthcoming Holyrood by-election; Glasgow Cathcart. [Lord] Mike Watson (former MP for Glasgow Central until the seat was abolished in boundary changes. He then lost the Govan selection to Mohammed Sarwar) will be resigning his seat after being found guilty of an almost comical case of arson in a posh Edinburgh hotel.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls have opened in the Livingston [Westminster] by-election and the Glasgow Cathcart [Holyrood] by-election.
From what I understand, Labour are confident of holding Livingstone with something between 35% and 45% of the vote and think they might just hang onto Cathcart. I've heard contradicting reports about which seat the Tartan Tories (er... SNP) have been putting the most effort into... interestingly the former Lord Provost of Glasgow is running in Cathcart as for that Senior Citizens outfit. Could poll very well.

Let's run a wee prediction contest...

My guess is that Labour will hold Livingstone but will lose Cathcart to the SNP.

[Јas]

Let's run a wee prediction contest...

My guess is that Labour will hold Livingstone but will lose Cathcart to the SNP.

My guess is that Labour will hold Livingston with about 40%,
and also hold Cathcart, but here it will be very close between them and the SNP both parties in and around 30%.

[afleitch]

Livingston will be safely in Labour's pocket. Cathcart on the other hand is a tricky one to call. I can see Labour loosing some support to Pat Lally the Independent and the SSP cadidate, but Labour voters in Scotland are often reluctant to switch to the SNP, even when they wish to 'protest.' Who ever gets the majority, with such a low turnout, it is likely to be only around 200-400.

Having said that King's Park, Pollockshaws and Hampden are vital areas that Labour have to hold. These areas have aread of high density, upmarket sandstone housing that used to elect Conservative Teddy Taylor. They still have pockets of Conservative support who may switch to the SNP. That is Labour's weakness in this seat.

[minionofmidas]

My guess is that Labour holds both, and may the ballot boxes explode with vigour and decisiveness.

[Michael Z]

Because a slow self-realisation led me to believe that the Labour is not a progressive force. Quite the opposite in fact. It straight-jackets children in our school system, labels individual choice as elitist and is the standard bearer for political correctness, which has ruined this nation; 60's left wing 'trendy' sociology that has been disproven time and time again but they still push ahead regardkess. It's all very complicated i'm afraid.

That's fair enough, though in a way it's a bit easy for people to bash the 60s when I personally would argue that most of our social problems stem from the cold materialism of the 1980s, but that's neither here nor there really.

In any case, I doubt I'd ever join a political party, in spite of my red avatar, because I feel that by doing so I would basically end up boxing myself into an ideological corner, something I wouldn't be all that comfortable with. I've flirted with joining Labour, I've flirted with joining the Lib Dems, heck, at one point in my teens I even flirted with joining the SWP (I know, I know. But show me one politically motived teenager who isn't an extremist and I'll show you a green dog. Heck, just look at some of the under-18s in this forum).

'Course, should the Tories pick Clarke or Cameron, I'd have a hard time choosing between Labour and Tory. I don't care much about Clarke's dodgy tobacco credentials, I like the guy. Besides, show me one politician who isn't corrupt and I'll show you... erm, a green dog. Again. And should the Lib Dems find the wisdom to get rid of Kennedy and pick Menzies Campbell as their leader, now there's an election dilemma if ever I saw one. It would be that rarest of occurances where I couldn't choose between the three parties.

As for Cook (and this is where I steer this post back on-topic, albeit VERY loosely), a sad loss obviously. And I'm probably the only one who finds it just a wee bit suspicious that a man with no history of bad health, but who happens to be the government's biggest critic from within, should suddenly drop dead for no apparent reason... But then I'm a cynic, in case people here hadn't noticed.

[minionofmidas]

Ah, just like Ahmad Shah Massoud died just at the appropriate moment.

(No, I don't believe he was murdered by the US - or the UK. Still, worth pointing out from time to time. )

[Filuwaúrdjan]

that a man with no history of bad health

Actually, he used to drink a lot until the last few years of his life. Generally when a politician dies suddenly, it's of a heart attack (or etc) brought on by years of heavy drinking, stress, rich food etc. One of the risks of the job actually (from memory almost all the Labour M.P's that died in the late '70's (and there were a lot) died that way).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Voting has been slow. Turnout estimated at between 35% and 40% in Livingston and between 35% and 30% in Cathcart.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls have closed. Not heard anything from the counts. Results in about an hour or so.