Japan Elections
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Author Topic: Japan Elections  (Read 5415 times)
jaichind
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« on: August 07, 2005, 09:50:18 AM »

Monday vote on postal reform does not look good for Koizumi.  The Nakasone faction of the LDP in the Upper House has came out opposing the reform bill.  If it does not passes and Koizumi's bluff is called he may have no choice but follow through on his threat to have early elections, most likely in Sept 2005.  Anti-Koizumi LDP factions might bolt and form a seperate party.  Komeito party indicated they might go with Democratic Party after the elections.   
If so, Koizumi, another Bush ally, will bite the dust.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=aHL7FEz1g8SE&refer=japan
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Emsworth
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2005, 07:43:59 AM »


The bill has failed
by a vote of 108-125. A dissolution of the Diet is said to be imminent.
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jaichind
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2005, 08:21:56 AM »

All LDP members that vote to oppose the bill will not be nominated by the party, claims Koizumi.  Most of them will either run as independents or form a new party.  This could dent the LDP vote and be a wild card in the post-election Diet as it is likely that no bloc of parties will get a majority.  This anti-reform group could put the LDP back into power sans Koizumi.
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BRTD
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2005, 11:11:48 AM »

If it ousts the war criminal lover Koizumi, great.

The LDP didn't even get a plurality of the popular vote in the last election but still got a majority of the Diet since the electoral districts favor the rural areas they do well in. Hopefully this puts them out for good.
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jaichind
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« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2005, 11:48:13 AM »

If it ousts the war criminal lover Koizumi, great.

The LDP didn't even get a plurality of the popular vote in the last election but still got a majority of the Diet since the electoral districts favor the rural areas they do well in. Hopefully this puts them out for good.

Katsuya Okada, leader of Democratic Party of Japan, has indicated that he will not visit Yasukuni.  Koizumi was suppos to visit on 8/15.  It could become an explosive issue in the election.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2005, 12:37:15 PM »

Interesting news... very interesting in fact... can anyone here read Japanese? It'd be nice if we could follow opinion polls and all that.

BRTD: it's a bit more complicated than that. The LDP actually won the most votes in the Single Member seats (by a solid amount as well; 7pts). The Democrats did win the most votes in the Block (ie: PR) seats (by 2pts) though.
And the whole urban-rural thing doesn't come into it a great deal; in the single member seats, the LDP were just 2pts behind the Democrats in Tokyo and tied with them in seats.

I don't especially like either major party (to risk understatement)... the Democrats don't seem to stand for *anything* other than not being the LDP, while the LDP isn't much more than a sophisticated special interests lobbying machine...
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BRTD
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« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2005, 12:43:00 PM »

The Communists are actually the best party. Not a joke either, the Communists are actually pretty moderate, and really more of a solid center-left party than a true communist party. Hence they are larger than the Social Democrats, who are actually the most extreme left party and where all the nutters. Weird political alignment.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2005, 01:34:19 PM »

Most of the old Socialist Party went over to the Democrats IIRC.
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KEmperor
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« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2005, 03:27:00 PM »

Japan will hold nationwide elections to the House of Representatives, the more powerful lower house of the Japanese Diet, on September 11, 2005.
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jaichind
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« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2005, 04:22:16 PM »

Last poll back in July showed 36% supported LDP and 24% support DJP.  It is before the recent fiasco and does not take into account anti-Koizumi elements in LDP that might break away in the election. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2005, 04:24:30 PM »

The DPJ in this case is complete hypocritical.  They claim to be for reform and also for the reforming Japan Postal.  But they could have easily vote for the bill in the upper house to pass the bill.  Instead they voted no to create an election they might benifit from.  I myself am not sure the current reform effort is the right thing to do but if the DPJ is for it they should put their money where their mouth is.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2005, 04:29:05 PM »

Last poll back in July showed 36% supported LDP and 24% support DJP.  It is before the recent fiasco and does not take into account anti-Koizumi elements in LDP that might break away in the election. 

Thanks Smiley

Was that for single seat or block vote?
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KillerPollo
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« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2005, 10:02:59 PM »

Go! PRI of Japan!!! Tongue
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jaichind
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« Reply #13 on: August 09, 2005, 10:42:46 AM »

See

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/GH09Dh01.html

for good analysis of upcoming election.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2005, 11:21:16 AM »

Most of the old Socialist Party went over to the Democrats IIRC.
Wasn't that just a name change?
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2005, 12:18:49 PM »

Most of the old Socialist Party went over to the Democrats IIRC.
Wasn't that just a name change?

From the Wikipedia:

"The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) was formed on April 27, 1998. It was an merger of four previously independent parties that were opposed to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)- a previous Democratic Party of Japan (1996), the Good Governance Party(民政党, Minseito), the New Fraternity Party(新党友愛, Shinto-Yuai), and the Democratic Reform Party(民主改革連合, Minshu-Kaikaku-Rengo). These were all new parties that were either liberal or social-democratic."

"The Social Democratic Party (社会民主党 Shakai Minshu-tō, often abbreviated to 社民党 Shamin-tō; also abbreviated as SDP in English) is a political party of Japan. It was formerly known as the Japan Socialist Party (JSP), until 1996, when it had a name change. It claims to be a social-democratic party. It lost much of its members to the likewise left-wing Democratic Party of Japan in 1998, and today is the smallest Japanese political party."
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BRTD
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« Reply #16 on: August 10, 2005, 11:39:23 AM »

Hey the German elections are just a week after.

Looks like election junkies will get two interesting elections in September.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #17 on: August 10, 2005, 01:00:19 PM »

Hey the German elections are just a week after.

Looks like election junkies will get two interesting elections in September.

Yeah, those hideous Japanese are stealing us the whole show now. Wink
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #18 on: August 10, 2005, 01:01:02 PM »

Hey the German elections are just a week after.

Looks like election junkies will get two interesting elections in September.

Yeah, those hideous Japanese are stealing us the whole show now. Wink
Specially as in Germany, the aftermath of the election will likely be more interesting than the election itself.
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jaichind
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« Reply #19 on: August 11, 2005, 10:26:59 PM »

Latest polls seem to be moving in Koizumi's direction.  Asked how they would vote in the election, 38 percent of respondents to the Asahi poll were undecided, 29 percent chose the LDP and 15 percent opted for the main opposition Democratic Party.
But this gap is smaller than at a similar stage in the 2001 campaign when LDP-Komeito captured a majority much smaller than the polls would suggest.  Elections in Japan are determined by floating voters and grassroots organization, especially in rural areas.  A significant number of the Postal Unions are bolting from the LDP and weakening LDP strength in its rural base.  The floating urban voter could swing once again to DPJ and deny LDP-Komeito a majority.

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jaichind
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« Reply #20 on: August 28, 2005, 06:18:01 PM »

Three Japanese new magazines has came out with projections of 9/11 election results

2003 results
LDP                  237
Komeito             34
Conservatives     4  (merged with LDP)
DPJ                  177
JCP                      9
SDP                     6
Independents   13


Projections

                           Current      Bunsyun     Mainichi      Asahi
LDP                        212              196           222           221
Komeito                   34                30             31             27
DPJ                         175             220            193          201
JCP                             9                 7                8              8
SDP                            6                 2                4              4
Independents          41               23               22            19
(includes LDP
rebels)

All three magazines, correctly in my view, assume that undecided will break for DPJ but they seem to disagree on the magnitude.

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KillerPollo
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« Reply #21 on: August 31, 2005, 12:36:57 AM »

Three Japanese new magazines has came out with projections of 9/11 election results

2003 results
LDP                  237
Komeito             34
Conservatives     4  (merged with LDP)
DPJ                  177
JCP                      9
SDP                     6
Independents   13


Projections

                           Current      Bunsyun     Mainichi      Asahi
LDP                        212              196           222           221
Komeito                   34                30             31             27
DPJ                         175             220            193          201
JCP                             9                 7                8              8
SDP                            6                 2                4              4
Independents          41               23               22            19
(includes LDP
rebels)

All three magazines, correctly in my view, assume that undecided will break for DPJ but they seem to disagree on the magnitude.



OMG! LOL
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #22 on: September 09, 2005, 05:40:12 AM »

BBC reporting a poll giving the LDP a lead of 22pts for the single seat constituencies
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Platypus
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« Reply #23 on: September 11, 2005, 07:22:57 AM »

It seems like Koizumi is back
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jaichind
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« Reply #24 on: September 11, 2005, 08:23:24 AM »

LDP in a landslide.  LDP-Komeito could very well cross 350 seats out of 480.  For those that and read some Japanese, the Ashai site is good for current results.

http://www2.asahi.com/senkyo2005/index.html

Pink columns are LDP and Komeito  Blue columns are various opposition parties.
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