Japan Elections

[jaichind]

With 431 seats out of 480 projected, LDP-Komeito has 299.  Looks like they will end up with about 330, lower than exit polls projected but still a smashing victory for the ruling alliance.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BBC are suggesting that the result is good enough for the LDP to rule on their own

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Okada seems to have quit as DPJ leader

Some interesting one-member seat results actually... the big one (as far as the media is concerned) seems to be the failure of a Koizumi "assassin" Horie to beat Shizuka Kamei in Hiroshima; that race made it into the papers over here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Final (I think) results:

LDP 296, New Komeito 31 (Total outgoing coalition: 327)
DPJ 113
JCP 9
SDP 7
PNP 4
NPN 1
NPD 1
Ind 18

LDP won 2/3rds of the single-seat constituencies. Some people think the DPJ will now shatter into two or three parties.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Pretty miserable. Will those LDP bastards ever be removed for a significant amount of time? This is starting to look like Singapore.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Pretty miserable. Will those LDP bastards ever be removed for a significant amount of time? This is starting to look like Singapore.

This is the LDP's best result since 1990. Before then they used to get this sorta result all the time.
Good result for the SDP and Commies, btw.

[jaichind]

Best result of LDP was in 1960 and 1986 where LDP won about 300 seats out of 470.  Those victories were much more impressive than today's LDP win due to the fact that under the old system (before 1996) it was much more proportional.  Today's LDP victory comes mostly from the fact it was a first-past-the-post system in 300 of 480 seats.  In the PR seats the swing toward LDP-Komeito I think is at most 3%.  As long as DJP does not fall apart it is quite possible in an election or two the LDP will be defeated with a single digit swing.  This is especially true now that Koizumi has thrown away the LDP machine in the rural areas and has lost the rural vote.  It is now dependent on the fickle urban vote for victories. 

Pretty miserable. Will those LDP bastards ever be removed for a significant amount of time? This is starting to look like Singapore.

This is the LDP's best result since 1990. Before then they used to get this sorta result all the time.
Good result for the SDP and Commies, btw.

[Michael Z]

I can't say I'm all that happy about Koizumi's victory, since under him relations between Japan and and its neighbours have been at their most strained in decades. Okada was actively calling for a change in foreign policy and an improved relationship with Korea and China.

I wonder who will replace Okada as DPJ leader... Makiko Tanaka, perhaps? Now there's something I'd pay to see; it would be poetic justice if she could beat her old boss Koizumi and replace him as PM. Besides, if there's anyone who can win an election for the DPJ and additionally become Japan's first ever female PM (in what is still a highly patriarchal country) it's her.

[ag]

I doubt she would have a chance to defeat Koizumi, since he is not planning to run for re-election in the future.  I believe he had said he would retire at the end of his previous term in 2006, and he is still likely to retire some time during this term.  He'd go out on a high note!

[AuH2O]

Japan is pretty solid politically. Koizumi is a reformer and the LDP generally represents the best interests of the people. Whatever left there is in Japan is pretty much dead.

[jaichind]

The election is bad news for Japan and LDP on the long run.  The LDP has no plans for pension reform.  I suspect that is why Koizumi says he will retire next year.  He has no answers and agenda for what to do about long term structure problems in Japan.  This Postal reform business is really a scheme to split Japan Postal into 4 companies but allow them to have cross holdings so it would easy for the 4 to re-combine.  Besides, it will not happend until 2017 under Koizumi.  The whole thing is a populist ruse for Koizumi to put all media attention on him versus the LDP rebels and marginalizing the DPJ in the meatime.  It worked for sure.  But now the LDP has destroyed is rural election machine and relies on the urban vote which could switch to DPJ as media attention shifts.  The LDP-Komeito alliance also hurts LDP on the long run.  Anti-Komeito feelings runs strong among mainstream Buddhist votes who will also turn against LDP eventually.  Most of LDP MPs are elected on Koizumi's popularity and will go down once he passes from the scene. 

[they don't love you like i love you]

I heard Koizumi was pretty unpopular recently. Must've been an upswing. Still good news if there's a good chance that evil evil LDP will finally go down.

[jaichind]

I heard Koizumi was pretty unpopular recently. Must've been an upswing. Still good news if there's a good chance that evil evil LDP will finally go down.

Ever since the Recruit Scandals in 1989 the Japanese voter always seems to support anything that claims to be "new."  The fall the LDP in 1993 was the doing of a bunch of LDP rebel parties all of whom had the word "new" in their names.  The "new" grand alliance government of 1993 under Hosakawa had approval ratings of over 80% before falling when he was no longer "new."  ShiShinto (New New Party) surged in 1996 based on the fact it was new just like DPJ in 2000 also did well due to the fact it was "new."  Koizumi had an approval rating of over 80% in 2001 based on his "new' approach of attacking the LDP factions in his own party.  Then Koizumi became old news and his approval rating fell to 40%.  In this election campaign Koizumi again became "new" again by daring to destorying his own LDP rural base with the Japan Postal "reforms."  It is just sad to see the Japanese voter keep on voting for the same old guys all just re-inventing themselves once in a few years and claiming that they are "new."

[jaichind]

After all the talk of a massive LDP landslide there is one basic fact.  LDP+Komeito gained 1.7% on top of their 2003 election result.  In 2003 LDP+komeito captured (34.9%+14.8%) 49.7% of the PR vote.  This time around they captured (38.2%+13.2%) 51.4% of the PR vote.  An increase of 1.7%.  It is true that this increase came inspite of the 4.8% that went to anti-Koizumi LDP rebel parties this time around.  But those who voted for the rebels were going to vote against Koizumi no matter what.  It really came down to DPJ or LDP rebels.  The LDP "reform" drive netted 1.7% of the vote.  Significant but no a massive swing by any means.  Of course LDP/Komeito did very well in the 300 directly elected seats this time.  But that is more becuase of the split of the anti-Koizumi votes between the DPJ, JCP, DSPJ and the LDP rebels as well as celerity LDP candidate to pull in the non-partisan vote.  Good strategy but a realignment this does not make.