1976: Carter/Wallace vs. Ford/Brooke

[SingingAnalyst]

Discuss with maps and demographic analysis.

[RC (a la Frémont)]

Discuss with maps and demographic analysis.

This should be in "Past Election What-Ifs?"

[SingingAnalyst]

Can one of the moderators move this please? I don't know how.

[Kingpoleon]

320: Gerald Ford/Edward Brooke - 50.0%
218: Jimmy Carter/George Wallace - 47.0%
Eugene McCarthy/Peter Camejo - 2.6%
Others - 0.4%

[Lord Admirale]

382-156

Easy win for Ford. I could argue that DC might even go Republican, but I'm not sure.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Can one of the moderators move this please? I don't know how.

Done.

[SingingAnalyst]

320: Gerald Ford/Edward Brooke - 50.0%
218: Jimmy Carter/George Wallace - 47.0%
Eugene McCarthy/Peter Camejo - 2.6%
Others - 0.4%

That looks about right. I'd say Ford would have won those under 30 by 54-41 and those 30-49 by 50-47, while Carter would have won those 50+ by 50-48.  There would have been a steep education and income gradient, both about as strong and tilted in the same direction.

I think the big question is what percentage of the Black vote does Carter get. I'd say 70%, same as JFK in 1960.

[Kingpoleon]

mathstatman, I would guess the black vote would be ~50-50.

[SingingAnalyst]

mathstatman, I would guess the black vote would be ~50-50.

Interesting. That would not only put DC in play, it would throw the Black vote into question for subsequent elections.

Obviously, that didn't happen.

[Kingpoleon]

mathstatman, I would guess the black vote would be ~50-50.

Interesting. That would not only put DC in play, it would throw the Black vote into question for subsequent elections.

Obviously, that didn't happen.

African-Americans would only not vote heavily for Ford because of George Wallace pretending to be reformed. If the parties had actually drifted these ways, I imagine Republicans becoming a party of Tsongas, Dean, and generally social liberals, in alliance with libertarians and liberal centrists. The Democrats would probably become the party of Scoop Jackson - populism first, war second.

[MAINEiac4434]

mathstatman, I would guess the black vote would be ~50-50.

Interesting. That would not only put DC in play, it would throw the Black vote into question for subsequent elections.

Obviously, that didn't happen.

African-Americans would only not vote heavily for Ford because of George Wallace pretending to be reformed. If the parties had actually drifted these ways, I imagine Republicans becoming a party of Tsongas, Dean, and generally social liberals, in alliance with libertarians and liberal centrists. The Democrats would probably become the party of Scoop Jackson - populism first, war second.

Yup. And you'd probably see Obama be a Republican in this world.

[Kingpoleon]

mathstatman, I would guess the black vote would be ~50-50.

Interesting. That would not only put DC in play, it would throw the Black vote into question for subsequent elections.

Obviously, that didn't happen.

African-Americans would only not vote heavily for Ford because of George Wallace pretending to be reformed. If the parties had actually drifted these ways, I imagine Republicans becoming a party of Tsongas, Dean, and generally social liberals, in alliance with libertarians and liberal centrists. The Democrats would probably become the party of Scoop Jackson - populism first, war second.

Yup. And you'd probably see Obama be a Republican in this world.

Considering the shift of focus away from economics, I'm not sure. The Republicans would undoubtedly still be the party of Paul Ryan, but more bleeding heart libertarian types would likely make sure the cuts were more efficient than hurtful.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ford definitely wins in this.

✓ President Gerald Ford (R-MI)/Senator Edward Brooke (R-MA): 375 EVs.; 52.4%
Former Governor Jimmy Carter (D-GA)/Governor George Wallace (D-AL): 163 EVs.; 45.5%