which party has the bigger problem?

[WalterMitty]

serious discussion please.

[A18]

Neither is a problem, but to answer the poll question, I would say option 2 (margin of victory being the key indicator for me).

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Democrats have the bigger problem now, Republicans will have the bigger problem in a few years.  The biggest SE state is a swing state (FL), and the 2 other big states (VA, NC) are trending overall in the Dems direction.  Barring a landslide, the GOP doesn't even have a chance in Pennsylvania anymore (Bush visited 40+ times and lost by 2 pts. in a 2 1/2 pt. national victory), NH is only 4 EVs, and the rest of the region is so solidly Democratic that the GOP has no problem bashing it for the sake of rallying small town America. 

[A18]

Democrats have the bigger problem now, Republicans will have the bigger problem in a few years. The biggest SE state is a swing state (FL), and the 2 other big states (VA, NC) are trending overall in the Dems direction. Barring a landslide, the GOP doesn't even have a chance in Pennsylvania anymore (Bush visited 40+ times and lost by 2 pts. in a 2 1/2 pt. national victory), NH is only 4 EVs, and the rest of the region is so solidly Democratic that the GOP has no problem bashing it for the sake of rallying small town America.

LOL. You are almost as funny as Scoonie.

[WalterMitty]

nc is trending democrat?

wait did i miss something?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

nc is trending democrat?

wait did i miss something?

it's pretty slow, hard to miss

[jokerman]

It's not really a problem, just a matter of will.  I would say in the current state of both of the parties 2 is harder, but yet the South could flip Democratic with a moderate populist.

[nini2287]

nc is trending democrat?

wait did i miss something?

it's pretty slow, hard to miss

Umm... look over the years
1988-NC 8.44% more Republican than the National Average
1992-NC 6.25% more Republican than the National Average
1996-NC 13.20% more Republican than the National Average
2000-NC 13.38% more Republican than the National Average
2004-NC 9.98% more Republican than the National Average (due to Homebody Edwards being on the ticket)

Not to mention, the Democrats have lost the last two open senate races there.

[Josh/Devilman88]

nc is trending democrat?

wait did i miss something?

it's pretty slow, hard to miss

Umm... look over the years
1988-NC 8.44% more Republican than the National Average
1992-NC 6.25% more Republican than the National Average
1996-NC 13.20% more Republican than the National Average
2000-NC 13.38% more Republican than the National Average
2004-NC 9.98% more Republican than the National Average (due to Homebody Edwards being on the ticket)

Not to mention, the Democrats have lost the last two open senate races there.

NC is move to the Right.

[RJ]

If I had to pick a state from the deep south most likely to trend Democrat and become at least a swing state in the near future, I'd say Georgia. Other than that, I agree with Takeourcountryback.

[Defarge]

Democrats.  Even if we start taking the entire midwest, by 2012 it won't matter, upon which Hispanics will start to really take hold of the party as we're forced to try to pick up the southwest.  Between 2012 and 2020, the perfect Democratic ticket would be a Southern Presidential candidate and a Hispanic South-Western VP.  The South is expanding too rapidly to count on winning elections by simply ignoring it.

[Gustaf]

The South seems to vote more on a general feel than on concrete issues. This means that it's probably harder to swing as long as Republicans can successfully portray teh Dem candidate as a Northeastern liberal. I think a moderately populist Southerner could still take Arkansas, Lousiana and Florida, possibly also Tennessee and Virginia. I'm not really sure which will be hardest. However, it's obviously a bigger problem for the Democrats than it is for the Republicans.

If we reduce the South to just the confederacy and count the Northeast as PA-MD and Northeastwards (including DC as well) the South wins in EV 153 v 117 and 131 v 95 in congressmen. (senators are tied, but with the current situation, counting Jeffords as a Democrat, the GOP holds the South 18-4 while the Democrats only have a 15-7 advantage in the Northeast.)

[Virginian87]

The Dems clearly have the bigger problem, because the Republicans, as 2004 proved, can lose the entire Northeast but still win elections.

New Hampshire, once a safe Republican state, is becoming more Democratic.  They already have a Democratic Governor (Lynch).  Within the next ten years, Sununu or Gregg's Senate seat will be held by a Democrat.  As to North Carolina, the Charlotte area and Research Triangle is slowly moving towards the middle, like the Northern Virginia suburbs.  Florida is tough to track, and may always be a swing state.  Louisiana and Arkansas are winnable, but as I said before the candidate would have to be a social moderate.

[A18]

Neither party has a problem just because they can't win every state. Why do people on this board not seem to understand that?

[12th Doctor]

nc is trending democrat?

wait did i miss something?

it's pretty slow, hard to miss

Even with Edwards on the ticket, Bush performed better in North Carolina than he did in 2000.  Anyway, Kerry visited PA almost as many times as Bush did... and Bush only lost by 2%, not to mention the the demographic of the state is shifting far in favor of the GOP.  The Democrats can't even win governor here anymore unless they run a guy who pretends to be Republican Light against a weak Republican candidate.

The only reason Kerry one here in 2004 was because of his military record, his connection to Heinz and vote fraud in Philadelphia, which a recently released study said is now the vote fraud capital of the US.

[12th Doctor]

http://releases.usnewswire.com/GetRelease.asp?id=51235

[Hitchabrut]

The problem is Democrats losing hold of the Midwest and Republicans losing hold of the SW.

[opebo]

More electoral votes are moving Democrat than Republican:

But the trends are likely to favor Democrats even more in the future:

[Josh/Devilman88]

More electoral votes are moving Democrat than Republican:

But the trends are likely to favor Democrats even more in the future:

Are you stupid?  TX and NC are not trending to the left.

[Max Power]

The only reason Kerry one here in 2004 was because of his military record, his connection to Heinz and vote fraud in Philadelphia, which a recently released study said is now the vote fraud capital of the US.

Yeah, right.

[Virginian87]

From what I've heard Wisconsin and Minnesota will stay as slight lean Dem or at most swing states.  Both states have been socially progressive since the turn of the last century.  Could I see some statistics that prove that they're moving in the oppisite direction?

[AuH2O]

Nixon did win Wisconsin 3 times.

"Trends" are overrated. They occur slowly, when at all.

[© tweed]

Democrats, for obvious reasons.  We can't win elections; they can.  Their inability now to crack the northeast will be more of an annoyance for them than a problem.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

More electoral votes are moving Democrat than Republican:

But the trends are likely to favor Democrats even more in the future:

I agree with you mostly, but I think Ohio already proved it's just as mindless as the rest of the country.  Withe their economy the way it is and they voted more on the gay marriage issue?  They've lost it.  Ohio will be solid GOP in 2012 methinks. 

[opebo]

More electoral votes are moving Democrat than Republican:

But the trends are likely to favor Democrats even more in the future:

Are you stupid?  TX and NC are not trending to the left.

You are apparently too stupid to read - the map on which Texas and North Carolina trend 'left' is clearly labeled 'the future'.  I hardly think anyone can dispute that these two states will trend Democrat in future, though whether it will be enough to every tip them to a Democrat Presidential candidate is debatable.