How George W. Bush did so well in Hawaii in 2004?

[UWS]

Hawaii usually votes Democrat by overwhelming margins. And yet John Kerry won it by only 9 percentage points in 2004. How George W. Bush did so well in such a blue state like Hawaii in 2004?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Hawaii,_2004

[kcguy]

It seems to me that the questions should be almost the exact opposite:
1.  Why do Republican incumbents do so well in Hawaii, compared to non-incumbents?
2.  Why did George W Bush do so badly for a Republican incumbent?


My data is below.  I may not have my methodology right, but you can see why I posed the questions I did.

Elections in which a Republican president is seeking re-election:
1972 (Nixon) - Nixon by 25  [National:  Nixon by 23]  R+2
1976 (Ford) - Carter by 3  [National:  Carter by 2]  D+1
1984 (Reagan) - Reagan by 11  [National:  Reagan by 18]  D+7
1992 (Bush) - Clinton by 11  [National:  Clinton by 6]  D+5
2004 (Bush) - Kerry by 9  [National:  Bush by 3]  D+12

Other elections
1980 - Carter by 2  [National:  Reagan by 10]  D+12
1988 - Dukakis by 10  [National:  Bush by 8 ]  D+18
1996 - Clinton by 25  [National:  Clinton by 9]  D+16
2000 - Gore by 18  [National:  Gore by 1]  D+17
2008 - Obama by 45  [National:  Obama by 7]  D+38
2012 - Obama by 43  [National:  Obama by 4]  D+39
2016 - Clinton by 32  [National:  Clinton by 2]  D+30

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Hawaii has this incumbency fetish.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Hawaii has this incumbency fetish.

I can guarantee you that it will trend Dem in 2020.

[UWS]

Hawaii has this incumbency fetish.

I can guarantee you that it will trend Dem in 2020.

Sure

[Skill and Chance]

The large military vote?  It also has more socon Dems than most states who could have been pleasantly surprised by Bush?

[cvparty]

Hawaii has this incumbency fetish.

I can guarantee you that it will trend Dem in 2020.

no

[Progressive Pessimist]

2004 was a very weird election for how narrowly Kerry managed to win a lot usual Democratic states such as California, New Jersey, and Oregon in addition to Hawaii. This same question could definitely be extended to those states as well.

[UWS]

2004 was a very weird election for how narrowly Kerry managed to win a lot usual Democratic states such as California, New Jersey, and Oregon in addition to Hawaii. This same question could definitely be extended to those states as well.

And also Illinois that Kerry won by only ten percentage points.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Illinois,_2004

In my opinion, Bush could have won these states and possibly a landslide if Osama Bin Laden was killed before the 2004 election.

[Vosem]

Hawaii has this incumbency fetish.

I can guarantee you that it will trend Dem in 2020.

I think it's quite possible to posit that Hawaii at least trends Republican in 2020, and quite possibly swings outright toward Trump, even in the face of a landslide defeat.

On the other hand, we haven't had a landslide defeat of an incumbent Republican President since...1932? So we'd really be entering uncharted territory here.

[cvparty]

Hawaii has this incumbency fetish.

I can guarantee you that it will trend Dem in 2020.

I think it's quite possible to posit that Hawaii at least trends Republican in 2020, and quite possibly swings outright toward Trump, even in the face of a landslide defeat.

On the other hand, we haven't had a landslide defeat of an incumbent Republican President since...1932? So we'd really be entering uncharted territory here.

i mean with trump what can you expect really

[sinngael]

2004 was a very weird election for how narrowly Kerry managed to win a lot usual Democratic states such as California, New Jersey, and Oregon in addition to Hawaii. This same question could definitely be extended to those states as well.

In Fairness Gore barely won Oregon in 2000 so it wasn't a major surprise that Oregon was close