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| |-+  Presidential Election Trends (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King)
| | |-+  which party has the bigger problem?
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Poll
Question: which will be harder to overcome?
republicans inabilty to win northeastern states   -13 (19.1%)
democrats inability to win southeastern states.   -55 (80.9%)
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Total Voters: 68

Author Topic: which party has the bigger problem?  (Read 6767 times)
Keystone Phil
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« Reply #75 on: August 25, 2005, 10:10:38 pm »
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Are McMansions popping up?

Social conservativism is still pretty strong there, too.

I'm sensing that the Repubs up there are more along the lines of Charlie Dent, not Santoomey. The economic populism is dying there I'll admit, but I'm also sensing a libertarian trend in that region in general. That's why I think the Dems are holding on there at the presidential level. Remember, I have said this before and I'll say it again- Democratic districts are by and large more Democratic than Republican districts are Republican. The PA GOP can spead itself out better while the Dems are more dense. Look at PA 132 (Mann) and PA 131 (Beyer, used to be Browne). Mann's district is incredibly Demcoratic, say 75% while Beyer's is even, lean GOP. This trend also holds true in Philadelphia. You based NE Philly on being pro-life on 6 out of 8 districts having pro-life Reps. Well, you can spaghetti string Crestmont Farms, Morrell Park, Parkwood, the more conservative areas of Somerton down to Fox Chase in one district thus effectively forcing O'Brien, Kenney into a primary battle and neutralizing Fox Chase at the same time. You could also plop Perzel's base and spaghetti string a corridor down Harbison/Aramingo Ave to Taylor's base creating a Perzel-Taylor primary. You do that I guarantee you will have 6 out of 8 pro-choice delegates from NE Philly in Harrisburg! Boy would that be fun if we were to ever take back the PA House.

Wrong. If you look at the GOP primary, Dent got 52% and the two other conservative challengers made up the other 48%. Dent could have had a more serious challenge if O'Neill didn't run. The district is more Santoomey. PA 15 is not libertarian. Stop making it seem better for you. Toomey totally destroyed Specter there in the GOP primary so there's no arguing that the area GOP is more moderate and if you say the Democrats there are socially liberal, you've lost it.

Good luck taking back the State House anytime soon.
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danwxman
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« Reply #76 on: August 25, 2005, 10:16:58 pm »
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Are McMansions popping up?

Social conservativism is still pretty strong there, too.

I'm sensing that the Repubs up there are more along the lines of Charlie Dent, not Santoomey.  The economic populism is dying there I'll admit, but I'm also sensing a libertarian trend in that region in general.  That's why I think the Dems are holding on there at the presidential level.  Remember, I have said this before and I'll say it again- Democratic districts are by and large more Democratic than Republican districts are Republican.  The PA GOP can spead itself out better while the Dems are more dense.  Look at PA 132 (Mann) and PA 131 (Beyer, used to be Browne).  Mann's district is incredibly Demcoratic, say 75% while Beyer's is even, lean GOP.  This trend also holds true in Philadelphia.  You based NE Philly on being pro-life on 6 out of 8 districts having pro-life Reps.  Well, you can spaghetti string Crestmont Farms, Morrell Park, Parkwood, the more conservative areas of Somerton down to Fox Chase in one district thus effectively forcing O'Brien, Kenney into a primary battle and neutralizing Fox Chase at the same time.  You could also plop Perzel's base and spaghetti string a corridor down Harbison/Aramingo Ave to Taylor's base creating a Perzel-Taylor primary.  You do that I guarantee you will have 6 out of 8 pro-choice delegates from NE Philly in Harrisburg!  Boy would that be fun if we were to ever take back the PA House.

Wrong. If you look at the GOP primary, Dent got 52% and the two other conservative challengers made up the other 48%. Dent could have had a more serious challenge if O'Neill didn't run. The district is more Santoomey. PA 15 is not libertarian. Stop making it seem better for you. Toomey totally destroyed Specter there in the GOP primary so there's no arguing that the area GOP is more moderate and if you say the Democrats there are socially liberal, you've lost it.

Good luck taking back the State House anytime soon.

Quite honestly, I don't want the Democrats or the Republicans controlling the state assembly anymore. DeWeese is mentally retarded, and the Republican leadership is full of stuck-up fatcats who think they deserve more money while simultaneously trying to hurt the poor with an expanded sales tax.
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« Reply #77 on: August 26, 2005, 12:14:25 am »
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Are McMansions popping up?

Social conservativism is still pretty strong there, too.

I'm sensing that the Repubs up there are more along the lines of Charlie Dent, not Santoomey. The economic populism is dying there I'll admit, but I'm also sensing a libertarian trend in that region in general. That's why I think the Dems are holding on there at the presidential level. Remember, I have said this before and I'll say it again- Democratic districts are by and large more Democratic than Republican districts are Republican. The PA GOP can spead itself out better while the Dems are more dense. Look at PA 132 (Mann) and PA 131 (Beyer, used to be Browne). Mann's district is incredibly Demcoratic, say 75% while Beyer's is even, lean GOP. This trend also holds true in Philadelphia. You based NE Philly on being pro-life on 6 out of 8 districts having pro-life Reps. Well, you can spaghetti string Crestmont Farms, Morrell Park, Parkwood, the more conservative areas of Somerton down to Fox Chase in one district thus effectively forcing O'Brien, Kenney into a primary battle and neutralizing Fox Chase at the same time. You could also plop Perzel's base and spaghetti string a corridor down Harbison/Aramingo Ave to Taylor's base creating a Perzel-Taylor primary. You do that I guarantee you will have 6 out of 8 pro-choice delegates from NE Philly in Harrisburg! Boy would that be fun if we were to ever take back the PA House.

Wrong. If you look at the GOP primary, Dent got 52% and the two other conservative challengers made up the other 48%. Dent could have had a more serious challenge if O'Neill didn't run. The district is more Santoomey. PA 15 is not libertarian. Stop making it seem better for you. Toomey totally destroyed Specter there in the GOP primary so there's no arguing that the area GOP is more moderate and if you say the Democrats there are socially liberal, you've lost it.

Good luck taking back the State House anytime soon.

Quite honestly, I don't want the Democrats or the Republicans controlling the state assembly anymore. DeWeese is mentally retarded, and the Republican leadership is full of stuck-up fatcats who think they deserve more money while simultaneously trying to hurt the poor with an expanded sales tax.

I agree with you whole heartedly.  When it comes to the state legislature in PA, I wish we would just toss all the bastards out.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #78 on: August 26, 2005, 04:50:22 pm »
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I can't stand DeWeese and a number of others but I don't think the body itself is all that bad.
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« Reply #79 on: August 27, 2005, 11:05:05 pm »
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I can't stand DeWeese and a number of others but I don't think the body itself is all that bad.

Yes it is both Dem and Rep.  DeWeese is a moron and is killing us Dems.  The entire Northeast Philadelphia delegation should be booted out barring Mark Cohen as well.  I know he has a bit of a speech impediment, but I admire Cohen for his balls and speaking his mind.  I'll even include John Taylor plus his 3 other GOP clowns in this equation considering they have been in there 20+ years and have done very little.  I am also not sparing Democrat Bill Rieger who should have retired 20 years ago for he needs to be carried in with an oxygen mask and should be in a home plus I am no fan of Mike McGeehan.  And of course Alan Butkovitz, who I kinda like, is going to be Controller of Philly.  Time for some young blood in there! 

I want more of Josh Shapiro, Mark Cohen, Mike Gerber, and Jennifer Mann in the PA State House.  On anotehr note, is it just me or are Jewish politicans just better? 
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« Reply #80 on: August 27, 2005, 11:32:29 pm »
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My state Rep. Sam Smith is the majority leader, so one would think that I would want him to stay in.  But, if he has a primary opponent, I'll vote against him.  I've had enough of the inept bullsh**t that is the PA state Republican party.  Esspecially with this latest pay raise.  If you knew how much corrupt politicing went into this.  They basically forced Republican Reps to vote for it or else lose party backing.  They leaned extra hard on a group of Reps here in the north that the party has all but declared they don't like, gee, wonder why they did that?
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« Reply #81 on: August 27, 2005, 11:37:10 pm »
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My state Rep. Sam Smith is the majority leader, so one would think that I would want him to stay in.  But, if he has a primary opponent, I'll vote against him.  I've had enough of the inept bullsh**t that is the PA state Republican party.  Esspecially with this latest pay raise.  If you knew how much corrupt politicing went into this.  They basically forced Republican Reps to vote for it or else lose party backing.  They leaned extra hard on a group of Reps here in the north that the party has all but declared they don't like, gee, wonder why they did that?

What do you think of Feingold? He always votes against pay raises.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #82 on: August 28, 2005, 12:00:42 am »
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Funny how yet another thread got hijacked by the Pennsylvanians. Damn Pennsylvanians, they try to steal everything from us...damn...*mutters incoherently to self*
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #83 on: August 29, 2005, 01:03:41 am »
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I can't stand DeWeese and a number of others but I don't think the body itself is all that bad.

Yes it is both Dem and Rep. DeWeese is a moron and is killing us Dems. The entire Northeast Philadelphia delegation should be booted out barring Mark Cohen as well. I know he has a bit of a speech impediment, but I admire Cohen for his balls and speaking his mind. I'll even include John Taylor plus his 3 other GOP clowns in this equation considering they have been in there 20+ years and have done very little. I am also not sparing Democrat Bill Rieger who should have retired 20 years ago for he needs to be carried in with an oxygen mask and should be in a home plus I am no fan of Mike McGeehan. And of course Alan Butkovitz, who I kinda like, is going to be Controller of Philly. Time for some young blood in there!

I want more of Josh Shapiro, Mark Cohen, Mike Gerber, and Jennifer Mann in the PA State House. On anotehr note, is it just me or are Jewish politicans just better?

Rieger is scum. The guy lives just a few minutes from me yet represents North Philly and is notorious for his ghost voting.

Are Jewish politicians better? Since they tend to be liberal, of course you'll think they're better.

I don't mind the NE Philly GOP delegation. I like O'Brien and Taylor. I don't follow/just don't care about Kenney that much. It'll certainly be pretty weird when they all retire and we get some new representation. We've grown up with these Representatives, most of which have been in office for over twenty years. Whether you like them or not, it'll be difficult getting used to them not being around.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #84 on: August 29, 2005, 03:08:03 am »
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The problem with analizing the trend of TX is that there's been a George Bush of TX on the GOP ticket for 6 of the last 7 elections, and then there was LBJ on the Democratic ticket in the '60s. Some of the shift from 1964 to 2004 can be explained by home states.

When LBJ was on the national ticket in the 1960s, the Republican Party in Texas was barely functional.

When George W. Bush was on the ticket in 2000 and 2004, the Democratic Party in Texas has been barely functional.

If in 2008, we were to start off with a standard liberal Democrat and a standard conservative Republican in Texas, in a best case scenario you will get numbers of roughly 55% for Republicans and 45% for Democrats (the statewide race I would compare to that is Cornyn v. Kirk Senate 2002).  Dole in 1996 (won the state with 48%) would have probably gotten 53%-54% in Texas without Perot, and the state has trended slightly Republican since then (my best guess).

A Southern Democrat on the ticket could add a couple of points his way, but in order to have a chance to win, you would probably need a pretty liberal Republican candidate added on top. 

And all of this stuff is not set in stone either.  A Southern conservative Democrat will have certain problems in the Northeast.  A more moderate, outside the South Republican would have certain problems in the South.

All in all, I would pay attention to Al's maps.  They tell the biggest story.
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« Reply #85 on: August 30, 2005, 03:15:11 am »
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I can't stand DeWeese and a number of others but I don't think the body itself is all that bad.

Yes it is both Dem and Rep. DeWeese is a moron and is killing us Dems. The entire Northeast Philadelphia delegation should be booted out barring Mark Cohen as well. I know he has a bit of a speech impediment, but I admire Cohen for his balls and speaking his mind. I'll even include John Taylor plus his 3 other GOP clowns in this equation considering they have been in there 20+ years and have done very little. I am also not sparing Democrat Bill Rieger who should have retired 20 years ago for he needs to be carried in with an oxygen mask and should be in a home plus I am no fan of Mike McGeehan. And of course Alan Butkovitz, who I kinda like, is going to be Controller of Philly. Time for some young blood in there!

I want more of Josh Shapiro, Mark Cohen, Mike Gerber, and Jennifer Mann in the PA State House. On anotehr note, is it just me or are Jewish politicans just better?

Rieger is scum. The guy lives just a few minutes from me yet represents North Philly and is notorious for his ghost voting.

Are Jewish politicians better? Since they tend to be liberal, of course you'll think they're better.

I don't mind the NE Philly GOP delegation. I like O'Brien and Taylor. I don't follow/just don't care about Kenney that much. It'll certainly be pretty weird when they all retire and we get some new representation. We've grown up with these Representatives, most of which have been in office for over twenty years. Whether you like them or not, it'll be difficult getting used to them not being around.

Rieger should retire.  I would have liked to see Raphael Collazo win that seat.  Actually his seat tweaked its way into Northwood/Frankford area since Perzel vacated that area.

As for the Irishmen representing NE Philly well, economically they aren't all that far off from me but socially, I think they are waaay to parochial for my liking.  I will include Mike McGeehan(D) in this, but that's only on social issues.

I was just pointing out about Jewish pols Cohen, Butkovitz, and Shapiro being fairly close to me politically both economically and socially.  I just checked my nose size, not Jewish!
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