which party has the bigger problem?

[skybridge]

Democrats have the bigger problem now, Republicans will have the bigger problem in a few years.  The biggest SE state is a swing state (FL), and the 2 other big states (VA, NC) are trending overall in the Dems direction.  Barring a landslide, the GOP doesn't even have a chance in Pennsylvania anymore (Bush visited 40+ times and lost by 2 pts. in a 2 1/2 pt. national victory), NH is only 4 EVs, and the rest of the region is so solidly Democratic that the GOP has no problem bashing it for the sake of rallying small town America. 

And so this country goes to the dogs...

[danwxman]

Lehigh county is trending Democrat, at least on the Presidential level.

[Virginian87]

Lehigh county is trending Democrat, at least on the Presidential level.

Are you in the Valley, or do you live in SE PA like Phil and Flyers?

[nini2287]

Are you a native of the Allentown-Bethlehem area, Phil?

Haha, you haven't seen the PA-13 yet, have you?

[Virginian87]

Are you a native of the Allentown-Bethlehem area, Phil?

Haha, you haven't seen the PA-13 yet, have you?

Wait, never mind.  That's right.

[Keystone Phil]

Lehigh county is trending Democrat, at least on the Presidential level.

Actually, it gets closer each time and that helps the GOP.

Are you a native of the Allentown-Bethlehem area, Phil?

I have family in that area but I don't live there and am not originally from there. I'm a Northeast Philadelphian.

[Keystone Phil]

1992 - Clinton - 41%
            Bush - 37%
            Perot - 22%

Dem win by four points.
           

1996 - Clinton - 46%
            Dole - 43%
            Perot - 10%
            Other - 1%

Dem win by three points.


2000 -  Gore - 49%
            Bush - 48%
            Nader - 3%

Dem win by one point.


2004 - Kerry - 51%
           Bush - 48%
           Other - 1%

Dem win by three points.


The county is not trending Democrat on the Presidential level.

[danwxman]

1992 - Clinton - 41%
            Bush - 37%
            Perot - 22%

Dem win by four points.
           

1996 - Clinton - 46%
            Dole - 43%
            Perot - 10%
            Other - 1%

Dem win by three points.


2000 -  Gore - 49%
            Bush - 48%
            Nader - 3%

Dem win by one point.


2004 - Kerry - 51%
           Bush - 48%
           Other - 1%

Dem win by three points.


The county is not trending Democrat on the Presidential level.

What do you call 2000-2004? With the surge in population in the Lehigh Valley recently, I'd say this marks a good trend (for Democrats that is).

[Keystone Phil]

What do you call 2000-2004? With the surge in population in the Lehigh Valley recently, I'd say this marks a good trend (for Democrats that is).

Uh...going down in margin of victory in 1996 and 2000 but going up last year isn't a trend.

[Virginian87]

1992 - Clinton - 41%
            Bush - 37%
            Perot - 22%

Dem win by four points.
           

1996 - Clinton - 46%
            Dole - 43%
            Perot - 10%
            Other - 1%

Dem win by three points.


2000 -  Gore - 49%
            Bush - 48%
            Nader - 3%

Dem win by one point.


2004 - Kerry - 51%
           Bush - 48%
           Other - 1%

Dem win by three points.


The county is not trending Democrat on the Presidential level.

What do you call 2000-2004? With the surge in population in the Lehigh Valley recently, I'd say this marks a good trend (for Democrats that is).

Surge in population?  I thought after the closure of Bethlehem Steel and other industries that this place would wind up economically stagnant.  Guess the Valley is becoming an exurb of the Philadelphia metro area.  Are McMansions popping up?

[danwxman]

1992 - Clinton - 41%
            Bush - 37%
            Perot - 22%

Dem win by four points.
           

1996 - Clinton - 46%
            Dole - 43%
            Perot - 10%
            Other - 1%

Dem win by three points.


2000 -  Gore - 49%
            Bush - 48%
            Nader - 3%

Dem win by one point.


2004 - Kerry - 51%
           Bush - 48%
           Other - 1%

Dem win by three points.


The county is not trending Democrat on the Presidential level.

What do you call 2000-2004? With the surge in population in the Lehigh Valley recently, I'd say this marks a good trend (for Democrats that is).

Surge in population?  I thought after the closure of Bethlehem Steel and other industries that this place would wind up economically stagnant.  Guess the Valley is becoming an exurb of the Philadelphia metro area.  Are McMansions popping up?

The Lehigh Valley has a pretty healthy economy right now. Much like my part of PA (south central) it is a prime location between many major cities, which tends to spur a lot of growth in the transportation industry. There is also spillover from New Jersey and the Philadelphia suburbs...people moving out from Philadelphia might not want to move into sparsely populated upper Montgomery or Bucks county and instead choose the nearest metro which is the Lehigh Valley.

[WalterMitty]

for us non-pennsylvanians, define 'lehigh valley'

[Virginian87]

for us non-pennsylvanians, define 'lehigh valley'

I'm not from Pennsylvania, but the Lehigh Valley is about 50 miles north of Philadelphia and about 90 miles west of New York.  It contains the cities of Allentown and Bethlehem, both of which are on the Lehigh River.  Sometimes the Delaware River cities of Easton, Pa. and Phillipsburg, N.J. are also included in this general area.  As the home of Bethlehem Steel and the Lehigh Valley Railroad, it was once a very large industrial center.  Though it's steel days are past, according to our Pennsylvanian forum members the area is booming again.

[WalterMitty]

ok is I-81 north of harrisburg to I-84 considered part of the lehigh valley?

[Virginian87]

ok is I-81 north of harrisburg to I-84 considered part of the lehigh valley?

No.  I-81 is in the Susquehanna Valley.  I-84 goes through Scranton and Lackawanna County.  The Lehigh Valley lies along Interstate 78 between the Delaware River and the western end of Lehigh County.

[Keystone Phil]

Are McMansions popping up?

Everytime I go up there, more homes are going up. Needless to say, economic conservativism is on the rise. The days of strong labor in the area are over. Social conservativism is still pretty strong there, too.

[Smash255]

What do you call 2000-2004? With the surge in population in the Lehigh Valley recently, I'd say this marks a good trend (for Democrats that is).

Uh...going down in margin of victory in 1996 and 2000 but going up last year isn't a trend.

Their is something called the National Margin Phil.  Yes it did go down from 96-00, but against the national margin it has gone more Dem from 96-00 & then again from 00-04

[Keystone Phil]

What do you call 2000-2004? With the surge in population in the Lehigh Valley recently, I'd say this marks a good trend (for Democrats that is).

Uh...going down in margin of victory in 1996 and 2000 but going up last year isn't a trend.

Their is something called the National Margin Phil.  Yes it did go down from 96-00, but against the national margin it has gone more Dem from 96-00 & then again from 00-04

Ok so there was a "trend" for Dems between two elections. I don't consider that a trend at all but anything to satisfy the hacks here.

[muon2]

The only reason Kerry one here in 2004 was because of his military record, his connection to Heinz and vote fraud in Philadelphia, which a recently released study said is now the vote fraud capital of the US.

Yeah, right.

Which one of these are you denying.  They are all pretty much the truth.  Military service in a lot of places in PA (like many similar places in the South) is golden, even if the Republicans did call it out, it probably still helped him, on the whole.  The Heinz people still carry a lot of weight in the Pittsburgh area.  I would bet that that was probably at least 40,000 votes, at least right there, combine the hometown feel of the campaign in Western, PA, esspecially the Southwest, with the military record, and it gave him about the same boost the Dems would have got in Arkansas and Tennessee if they had run Clark.  Finally... well, I have nothing to say other than that is what the study said.  I provided a link.

Unlike what some Dems seem to think, that 19 point lead that the exit polls gave Kerry here did not hold.  You guys seem to forget that, esspecially when you called PA two hours after the polls closed, even though, percentage wise, it was closer than Ohio.  Not to mention that this state used to give huge wins to Dem candidates and only flirted with landslide Republicans.  So, if the Republicans can't win here, the Dems have no shot in Ohio and Florida.

I thought Kerry won Pennsylvania because of the increasing Democratic strength in the suburbs.  It seems to me that to win Pennsylvania, a candidate just needs to win Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and some of the smaller cities like Scranton, Reading, and Allentown.  I'm not from Pa., but I do know that these towns are pretty blue-collar.  Shouldn't that help Democrats in Pennsylvania, or are the voters in these towns voting based on social issues?

Based on the the vote totals, PA generally tracked the national changes from 2000 to 2004. In 2000 Bush to Gore lost by 4.2% in PA or by 6.3% if you add Nader's vote to Gore. In 2004 Bush lost the state to Kerry by 2.5%. That's an improvement of either 1.7% or 3.8% with Nader. Nationally Bush improved 3.0% in the two party or 5.7% adding Nader to Gore. Bush gained in PA but by less than his national averages.

At the county level, Gore carried 18 PA counties in 2000. In 2004, Kerry only carried 13 counties. Bush flipped Mercer, Lawrence, Greene, Cambria, and Carbon to his side. Note that at the county level Bush gained the most in SW PA.

[12th Doctor]

Lehigh county is trending Democrat, at least on the Presidential level.

Not according to the Almanac of American Politics 2006 (just got it today, so thrilled).  According to them, the area went 50-50 which is a considerably better margin than the Reps have recieved in recent elections.

[Smash255]

What do you call 2000-2004? With the surge in population in the Lehigh Valley recently, I'd say this marks a good trend (for Democrats that is).

Uh...going down in margin of victory in 1996 and 2000 but going up last year isn't a trend.

Their is something called the National Margin Phil.  Yes it did go down from 96-00, but against the national margin it has gone more Dem from 96-00 & then again from 00-04

Ok so there was a "trend" for Dems between two elections. I don't consider that a trend at all but anything to satisfy the hacks here.

You can consider that a trend,  just look at the suburban shift in the NYC & Philly burbs from 88-92 and then from 92-96, two elections, but I would say anyone at that time would agree their was a trend there

[12th Doctor]

What do you call 2000-2004? With the surge in population in the Lehigh Valley recently, I'd say this marks a good trend (for Democrats that is).

Uh...going down in margin of victory in 1996 and 2000 but going up last year isn't a trend.

Their is something called the National Margin Phil.  Yes it did go down from 96-00, but against the national margin it has gone more Dem from 96-00 & then again from 00-04

Ok so there was a "trend" for Dems between two elections. I don't consider that a trend at all but anything to satisfy the hacks here.

You can consider that a trend,  just look at the suburban shift in the NYC & Philly burbs from 88-92 and then from 92-96, two elections, but I would say anyone at that time would agree their was a trend there

But Republican totals in the valley were depressed compared to national totals in the 60's, 70's (except Ford), and 80's.  It was not until the 90's and then 2000 and 2004 that Republicans began to run stronger there than they did state-wide or nationally.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's probably not a good idea to get so absolutist over trends. After all in 1984 Mondale lost Lackawanna but won Armstrong.
You can say that inbetween 1992 and 2004 Whatthehell County trended 25% towards the GOP in Presidential Elections or whatever and you can have a guess why... but that's about it.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

It's probably not a good idea to get so absolutist over trends.

^^^^^^^^^^

Each election brings with it a unique set of issues, a unique set of circumstances, and a unique set of candidates.  Democrat candidates have been getting progressively taller since 1988.  Does that mean Bill Bradley will get the nomination in 2008?

Had 9/11 happened in 2004 instead of 2001, Bush would have won 48 states.  Circumstances change from year to year, independent of trends and demographics.

That's not to say that trends aren't useful to follow, but their predictive capacity is limited.

[TeePee4Prez]

Are McMansions popping up?

Social conservativism is still pretty strong there, too.

I'm sensing that the Repubs up there are more along the lines of Charlie Dent, not Santoomey.  The economic populism is dying there I'll admit, but I'm also sensing a libertarian trend in that region in general.  That's why I think the Dems are holding on there at the presidential level.  Remember, I have said this before and I'll say it again- Democratic districts are by and large more Democratic than Republican districts are Republican.  The PA GOP can spead itself out better while the Dems are more dense.  Look at PA 132 (Mann) and PA 131 (Beyer, used to be Browne).  Mann's district is incredibly Demcoratic, say 75% while Beyer's is even, lean GOP.  This trend also holds true in Philadelphia.  You based NE Philly on being pro-life on 6 out of 8 districts having pro-life Reps.  Well, you can spaghetti string Crestmont Farms, Morrell Park, Parkwood, the more conservative areas of Somerton down to Fox Chase in one district thus effectively forcing O'Brien, Kenney into a primary battle and neutralizing Fox Chase at the same time.  You could also plop Perzel's base and spaghetti string a corridor down Harbison/Aramingo Ave to Taylor's base creating a Perzel-Taylor primary.  You do that I guarantee you will have 6 out of 8 pro-choice delegates from NE Philly in Harrisburg!  Boy would that be fun if we were to ever take back the PA House.