which party has the bigger problem?

[Virginian87]

The Dems clearly have the bigger problem, because the Republicans, as 2004 proved, can lose the entire Northeast but still win elections.

New Hampshire, once a safe Republican state, is becoming more Democratic.  They already have a Democratic Governor (Lynch).  Within the next ten years, Sununu or Gregg's Senate seat will be held by a Democrat.  As to North Carolina, the Charlotte area and Research Triangle is slowly moving towards the middle, like the Northern Virginia suburbs.  Florida is tough to track, and may always be a swing state.  Louisiana and Arkansas are winnable, but as I said before the candidate would have to be a social moderate.

[Virginian87]

From what I've heard Wisconsin and Minnesota will stay as slight lean Dem or at most swing states.  Both states have been socially progressive since the turn of the last century.  Could I see some statistics that prove that they're moving in the oppisite direction?

[Virginian87]

The only reason Kerry one here in 2004 was because of his military record, his connection to Heinz and vote fraud in Philadelphia, which a recently released study said is now the vote fraud capital of the US.

Yeah, right.

Which one of these are you denying.  They are all pretty much the truth.  Military service in a lot of places in PA (like many similar places in the South) is golden, even if the Republicans did call it out, it probably still helped him, on the whole.  The Heinz people still carry a lot of weight in the Pittsburgh area.  I would bet that that was probably at least 40,000 votes, at least right there, combine the hometown feel of the campaign in Western, PA, esspecially the Southwest, with the military record, and it gave him about the same boost the Dems would have got in Arkansas and Tennessee if they had run Clark.  Finally... well, I have nothing to say other than that is what the study said.  I provided a link.

Unlike what some Dems seem to think, that 19 point lead that the exit polls gave Kerry here did not hold.  You guys seem to forget that, esspecially when you called PA two hours after the polls closed, even though, percentage wise, it was closer than Ohio.  Not to mention that this state used to give huge wins to Dem candidates and only flirted with landslide Republicans.  So, if the Republicans can't win here, the Dems have no shot in Ohio and Florida.

I thought Kerry won Pennsylvania because of the increasing Democratic strength in the suburbs.  It seems to me that to win Pennsylvania, a candidate just needs to win Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and some of the smaller cities like Scranton, Reading, and Allentown.  I'm not from Pa., but I do know that these towns are pretty blue-collar.  Shouldn't that help Democrats in Pennsylvania, or are the voters in these towns voting based on social issues?

[Virginian87]

I think supersoulty and danwxman give good points here.  I have only passed western PA, so I have to give soulty the judgement there, but also Max Power as well.   danwxman hit on the South Central/Southeast to a tee however I am getting a little skittish about Bucks County. They barely elected Kerry and upgraded to a hard right Mike Fitzpatrick for Congress over the moderate libertarian Jim Greenwood.  Had the Dems a Peter Kostmayer or libertarian leaning liberal, they would have picked up PA 8.  I have good feelings about Montgomery, Delaware, and northern Chester counties and think Lois Murphy will win PA 6.  I will have to admit PA is getting pulled in every which way and the deciding factor where I'm from will be will the Bucks Dems pull their collective heads out of their asses?  Most of the younger people I know from that area are quite liberal so there is promise.   

I would imagine that Lackawanna County and the Lehigh Valley are strong Democratic places purely from an economic standpoint.

[Virginian87]

I think supersoulty and danwxman give good points here.  I have only passed western PA, so I have to give soulty the judgement there, but also Max Power as well.   danwxman hit on the South Central/Southeast to a tee however I am getting a little skittish about Bucks County. They barely elected Kerry and upgraded to a hard right Mike Fitzpatrick for Congress over the moderate libertarian Jim Greenwood.  Had the Dems a Peter Kostmayer or libertarian leaning liberal, they would have picked up PA 8.  I have good feelings about Montgomery, Delaware, and northern Chester counties and think Lois Murphy will win PA 6.  I will have to admit PA is getting pulled in every which way and the deciding factor where I'm from will be will the Bucks Dems pull their collective heads out of their asses?  Most of the younger people I know from that area are quite liberal so there is promise.   

I would imagine that Lackawanna County and the Lehigh Valley are strong Democratic places purely from an economic standpoint.

Talk to Keystone Phil about the Lehigh Valley.  He'd disagree with you strongly.  They did elect Pat Toomey to Congress, however, it was mainly because the Dems put up morons.  We also took two recent blows in special elections, but they were also GOP held seats to begin with.  I think it's temporarily pulling right due to exurbia, but will pull back left again when it becomes suburbia.  The steel industry is dead there.  Mack Truck in Allentown is also not doing so hot either.  The GOP smelled blood there and capitalized bigtime.  Our last two hopes there are Jennifer Mann and T.J. Rooney and the first one lost a State Senate special election when Charlie Dent when on to Congress.

Not only that, but the valley has been tettering on the edge towards the GOP since 2000.  Both Gore and Kerry barely made it past in the Allentown area.

What about Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and the anthracite coal districts?

[Virginian87]

I think supersoulty and danwxman give good points here.  I have only passed western PA, so I have to give soulty the judgement there, but also Max Power as well.   danwxman hit on the South Central/Southeast to a tee however I am getting a little skittish about Bucks County. They barely elected Kerry and upgraded to a hard right Mike Fitzpatrick for Congress over the moderate libertarian Jim Greenwood.  Had the Dems a Peter Kostmayer or libertarian leaning liberal, they would have picked up PA 8.  I have good feelings about Montgomery, Delaware, and northern Chester counties and think Lois Murphy will win PA 6.  I will have to admit PA is getting pulled in every which way and the deciding factor where I'm from will be will the Bucks Dems pull their collective heads out of their asses?  Most of the younger people I know from that area are quite liberal so there is promise.   

I would imagine that Lackawanna County and the Lehigh Valley are strong Democratic places purely from an economic standpoint.

Talk to Keystone Phil about the Lehigh Valley.  He'd disagree with you strongly.  They did elect Pat Toomey to Congress, however, it was mainly because the Dems put up morons.  We also took two recent blows in special elections, but they were also GOP held seats to begin with.  I think it's temporarily pulling right due to exurbia, but will pull back left again when it becomes suburbia.  The steel industry is dead there.  Mack Truck in Allentown is also not doing so hot either.  The GOP smelled blood there and capitalized bigtime.  Our last two hopes there are Jennifer Mann and T.J. Rooney and the first one lost a State Senate special election when Charlie Dent when on to Congress.

Not only that, but the valley has been tettering on the edge towards the GOP since 2000.  Both Gore and Kerry barely made it past in the Allentown area.

What about Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and the anthracite coal districts?

They've been holding steady largely due to the fact they do not have MCMansions like the Lehigh Valley.  The economic situation in that area is quite glum.  My younger sister goes to the University of Scranton and it is a depressing area to be in except for maybe the ski resorts.  My guess is it will stay Dem for a while.

That is a pretty fair assesment.  Even it is less Democratic than it used to be, though.

Probably due to social issues.

[Virginian87]

Are you a native of the Allentown-Bethlehem area, Phil?

[Virginian87]

Lehigh county is trending Democrat, at least on the Presidential level.

Are you in the Valley, or do you live in SE PA like Phil and Flyers?

[Virginian87]

Are you a native of the Allentown-Bethlehem area, Phil?

Haha, you haven't seen the PA-13 yet, have you?

Wait, never mind.  That's right.

[Virginian87]

1992 - Clinton - 41%
            Bush - 37%
            Perot - 22%

Dem win by four points.
           

1996 - Clinton - 46%
            Dole - 43%
            Perot - 10%
            Other - 1%

Dem win by three points.


2000 -  Gore - 49%
            Bush - 48%
            Nader - 3%

Dem win by one point.


2004 - Kerry - 51%
           Bush - 48%
           Other - 1%

Dem win by three points.


The county is not trending Democrat on the Presidential level.

What do you call 2000-2004? With the surge in population in the Lehigh Valley recently, I'd say this marks a good trend (for Democrats that is).

Surge in population?  I thought after the closure of Bethlehem Steel and other industries that this place would wind up economically stagnant.  Guess the Valley is becoming an exurb of the Philadelphia metro area.  Are McMansions popping up?

[Virginian87]

for us non-pennsylvanians, define 'lehigh valley'

I'm not from Pennsylvania, but the Lehigh Valley is about 50 miles north of Philadelphia and about 90 miles west of New York.  It contains the cities of Allentown and Bethlehem, both of which are on the Lehigh River.  Sometimes the Delaware River cities of Easton, Pa. and Phillipsburg, N.J. are also included in this general area.  As the home of Bethlehem Steel and the Lehigh Valley Railroad, it was once a very large industrial center.  Though it's steel days are past, according to our Pennsylvanian forum members the area is booming again.

[Virginian87]

ok is I-81 north of harrisburg to I-84 considered part of the lehigh valley?

No.  I-81 is in the Susquehanna Valley.  I-84 goes through Scranton and Lackawanna County.  The Lehigh Valley lies along Interstate 78 between the Delaware River and the western end of Lehigh County.