which party has the bigger problem?

[Keystone Phil]

I think supersoulty and danwxman give good points here.  I have only passed western PA, so I have to give soulty the judgement there, but also Max Power as well.   danwxman hit on the South Central/Southeast to a tee however I am getting a little skittish about Bucks County. They barely elected Kerry and upgraded to a hard right Mike Fitzpatrick for Congress over the moderate libertarian Jim Greenwood.  Had the Dems a Peter Kostmayer or libertarian leaning liberal, they would have picked up PA 8.  I have good feelings about Montgomery, Delaware, and northern Chester counties and think Lois Murphy will win PA 6.  I will have to admit PA is getting pulled in every which way and the deciding factor where I'm from will be will the Bucks Dems pull their collective heads out of their asses?  Most of the younger people I know from that area are quite liberal so there is promise.   

I would imagine that Lackawanna County and the Lehigh Valley are strong Democratic places purely from an economic standpoint.

Talk to Keystone Phil about the Lehigh Valley.  He'd disagree with you strongly.  They did elect Pat Toomey to Congress, however, it was mainly because the Dems put up morons.  We also took two recent blows in special elections, but they were also GOP held seats to begin with.  I think it's temporarily pulling right due to exurbia, but will pull back left again when it becomes suburbia.  The steel industry is dead there.  Mack Truck in Allentown is also not doing so hot either.  The GOP smelled blood there and capitalized bigtime.  Our last two hopes there are Jennifer Mann and T.J. Rooney and the first one lost a State Senate special election when Charlie Dent when on to Congress.

The Lehigh Valley is not what it used to be. Economic conservativism is on the rise with the more young professionals moving into the area. The Dems are having a good time in the Philly suburbs but hurting in the Lehigh Valley.

Mann and Rooney are the only Dems they have left in the area and they are overrated. The GOP has control of the area and will stay in control for awhile.

[Keystone Phil]

Lehigh county is trending Democrat, at least on the Presidential level.

Actually, it gets closer each time and that helps the GOP.

Are you a native of the Allentown-Bethlehem area, Phil?

I have family in that area but I don't live there and am not originally from there. I'm a Northeast Philadelphian.

[Keystone Phil]

1992 - Clinton - 41%
            Bush - 37%
            Perot - 22%

Dem win by four points.
           

1996 - Clinton - 46%
            Dole - 43%
            Perot - 10%
            Other - 1%

Dem win by three points.


2000 -  Gore - 49%
            Bush - 48%
            Nader - 3%

Dem win by one point.


2004 - Kerry - 51%
           Bush - 48%
           Other - 1%

Dem win by three points.


The county is not trending Democrat on the Presidential level.

[Keystone Phil]

What do you call 2000-2004? With the surge in population in the Lehigh Valley recently, I'd say this marks a good trend (for Democrats that is).

Uh...going down in margin of victory in 1996 and 2000 but going up last year isn't a trend.

[Keystone Phil]

Are McMansions popping up?

Everytime I go up there, more homes are going up. Needless to say, economic conservativism is on the rise. The days of strong labor in the area are over. Social conservativism is still pretty strong there, too.

[Keystone Phil]

What do you call 2000-2004? With the surge in population in the Lehigh Valley recently, I'd say this marks a good trend (for Democrats that is).

Uh...going down in margin of victory in 1996 and 2000 but going up last year isn't a trend.

Their is something called the National Margin Phil.  Yes it did go down from 96-00, but against the national margin it has gone more Dem from 96-00 & then again from 00-04

Ok so there was a "trend" for Dems between two elections. I don't consider that a trend at all but anything to satisfy the hacks here.

[Keystone Phil]

Are McMansions popping up?

Social conservativism is still pretty strong there, too.

I'm sensing that the Repubs up there are more along the lines of Charlie Dent, not Santoomey.  The economic populism is dying there I'll admit, but I'm also sensing a libertarian trend in that region in general.  That's why I think the Dems are holding on there at the presidential level.  Remember, I have said this before and I'll say it again- Democratic districts are by and large more Democratic than Republican districts are Republican.  The PA GOP can spead itself out better while the Dems are more dense.  Look at PA 132 (Mann) and PA 131 (Beyer, used to be Browne).  Mann's district is incredibly Demcoratic, say 75% while Beyer's is even, lean GOP.  This trend also holds true in Philadelphia.  You based NE Philly on being pro-life on 6 out of 8 districts having pro-life Reps.  Well, you can spaghetti string Crestmont Farms, Morrell Park, Parkwood, the more conservative areas of Somerton down to Fox Chase in one district thus effectively forcing O'Brien, Kenney into a primary battle and neutralizing Fox Chase at the same time.  You could also plop Perzel's base and spaghetti string a corridor down Harbison/Aramingo Ave to Taylor's base creating a Perzel-Taylor primary.  You do that I guarantee you will have 6 out of 8 pro-choice delegates from NE Philly in Harrisburg!  Boy would that be fun if we were to ever take back the PA House.

Wrong. If you look at the GOP primary, Dent got 52% and the two other conservative challengers made up the other 48%. Dent could have had a more serious challenge if O'Neill didn't run. The district is more Santoomey. PA 15 is not libertarian. Stop making it seem better for you. Toomey totally destroyed Specter there in the GOP primary so there's no arguing that the area GOP is more moderate and if you say the Democrats there are socially liberal, you've lost it.

Good luck taking back the State House anytime soon.

[Keystone Phil]

I can't stand DeWeese and a number of others but I don't think the body itself is all that bad.

[Keystone Phil]

I can't stand DeWeese and a number of others but I don't think the body itself is all that bad.

Yes it is both Dem and Rep.  DeWeese is a moron and is killing us Dems.  The entire Northeast Philadelphia delegation should be booted out barring Mark Cohen as well.  I know he has a bit of a speech impediment, but I admire Cohen for his balls and speaking his mind.  I'll even include John Taylor plus his 3 other GOP clowns in this equation considering they have been in there 20+ years and have done very little.  I am also not sparing Democrat Bill Rieger who should have retired 20 years ago for he needs to be carried in with an oxygen mask and should be in a home plus I am no fan of Mike McGeehan.  And of course Alan Butkovitz, who I kinda like, is going to be Controller of Philly.  Time for some young blood in there! 

I want more of Josh Shapiro, Mark Cohen, Mike Gerber, and Jennifer Mann in the PA State House.  On anotehr note, is it just me or are Jewish politicans just better? 

Rieger is scum. The guy lives just a few minutes from me yet represents North Philly and is notorious for his ghost voting.

Are Jewish politicians better? Since they tend to be liberal, of course you'll think they're better.

I don't mind the NE Philly GOP delegation. I like O'Brien and Taylor. I don't follow/just don't care about Kenney that much. It'll certainly be pretty weird when they all retire and we get some new representation. We've grown up with these Representatives, most of which have been in office for over twenty years. Whether you like them or not, it'll be difficult getting used to them not being around.