which party has the bigger problem?

[12th Doctor]

nc is trending democrat?

wait did i miss something?

it's pretty slow, hard to miss

Even with Edwards on the ticket, Bush performed better in North Carolina than he did in 2000.  Anyway, Kerry visited PA almost as many times as Bush did... and Bush only lost by 2%, not to mention the the demographic of the state is shifting far in favor of the GOP.  The Democrats can't even win governor here anymore unless they run a guy who pretends to be Republican Light against a weak Republican candidate.

The only reason Kerry one here in 2004 was because of his military record, his connection to Heinz and vote fraud in Philadelphia, which a recently released study said is now the vote fraud capital of the US.

[12th Doctor]

http://releases.usnewswire.com/GetRelease.asp?id=51235

[12th Doctor]

The only reason Kerry one here in 2004 was because of his military record, his connection to Heinz and vote fraud in Philadelphia, which a recently released study said is now the vote fraud capital of the US.

Yeah, right.

Which one of these are you denying.  They are all pretty much the truth.  Military service in a lot of places in PA (like many similar places in the South) is golden, even if the Republicans did call it out, it probably still helped him, on the whole.  The Heinz people still carry a lot of weight in the Pittsburgh area.  I would bet that that was probably at least 40,000 votes, at least right there, combine the hometown feel of the campaign in Western, PA, esspecially the Southwest, with the military record, and it gave him about the same boost the Dems would have got in Arkansas and Tennessee if they had run Clark.  Finally... well, I have nothing to say other than that is what the study said.  I provided a link.

Unlike what some Dems seem to think, that 19 point lead that the exit polls gave Kerry here did not hold.  You guys seem to forget that, esspecially when you called PA two hours after the polls closed, even though, percentage wise, it was closer than Ohio.  Not to mention that this state used to give huge wins to Dem candidates and only flirted with landslide Republicans.  So, if the Republicans can't win here, the Dems have no shot in Ohio and Florida.

[12th Doctor]

The only reason Kerry one here in 2004 was because of his military record, his connection to Heinz and vote fraud in Philadelphia, which a recently released study said is now the vote fraud capital of the US.

Yeah, right.

Which one of these are you denying.  They are all pretty much the truth.  Military service in a lot of places in PA (like many similar places in the South) is golden, even if the Republicans did call it out, it probably still helped him, on the whole.  The Heinz people still carry a lot of weight in the Pittsburgh area.  I would bet that that was probably at least 40,000 votes, at least right there, combine the hometown feel of the campaign in Western, PA, esspecially the Southwest, with the military record, and it gave him about the same boost the Dems would have got in Arkansas and Tennessee if they had run Clark.  Finally... well, I have nothing to say other than that is what the study said.  I provided a link.

Unlike what some Dems seem to think, that 19 point lead that the exit polls gave Kerry here did not hold.  You guys seem to forget that, esspecially when you called PA two hours after the polls closed, even though, percentage wise, it was closer than Ohio.  Not to mention that this state used to give huge wins to Dem candidates and only flirted with landslide Republicans.  So, if the Republicans can't win here, the Dems have no shot in Ohio and Florida.

I thought Kerry won Pennsylvania because of the increasing Democratic strength in the suburbs.  It seems to me that to win Pennsylvania, a candidate just needs to win Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and some of the smaller cities like Scranton, Reading, and Allentown.  I'm not from Pa., but I do know that these towns are pretty blue-collar.  Shouldn't that help Democrats in Pennsylvania, or are the voters in these towns voting based on social issues?

Most of those smaller cities are still in the 55% Democratic column, but that is far less than they used to get in those places.

In order for a candidate to take Pennsylvania today, he must win by a large margin in one fo the three sections (Philly, "T", Pittsburgh) and at least finish above the majority in one of the other two.  Kerry barely accomplished this in 2004.  I think he carried the Pittsburgh area by about 53% which far, far, FAR less than the 70% majorities that Democrats could once reasonably expect to comand in the region.  Even in the Reagan landslide of 1984, the Democrats managed to poll 58% in this area.

This treand is offset, however, by Republican loses in the Philadelphia metro, but not quite.  As a whole, I would say that the state had pulled about 5% in favor of the Republicans since the days of Reagan.  True, Philadelphia is growing faster than other parts of the state, but Republican end roads into the Philly exurbs like Allentown and Reading are also aparent.  As well as the fact that the Lancaster-York area has expirienced tremedous growth in the past 30 years, as has State College and these areas don't see to be getting any less Republican.

[12th Doctor]

The only reason Kerry one here in 2004 was because of his military record, his connection to Heinz and vote fraud in Philadelphia, which a recently released study said is now the vote fraud capital of the US.

Yeah, right.

Which one of these are you denying.  They are all pretty much the truth.  Military service in a lot of places in PA (like many similar places in the South) is golden, even if the Republicans did call it out, it probably still helped him, on the whole.  The Heinz people still carry a lot of weight in the Pittsburgh area.  I would bet that that was probably at least 40,000 votes, at least right there, combine the hometown feel of the campaign in Western, PA, esspecially the Southwest, with the military record, and it gave him about the same boost the Dems would have got in Arkansas and Tennessee if they had run Clark.  Finally... well, I have nothing to say other than that is what the study said.  I provided a link.

Unlike what some Dems seem to think, that 19 point lead that the exit polls gave Kerry here did not hold.  You guys seem to forget that, esspecially when you called PA two hours after the polls closed, even though, percentage wise, it was closer than Ohio.  Not to mention that this state used to give huge wins to Dem candidates and only flirted with landslide Republicans.  So, if the Republicans can't win here, the Dems have no shot in Ohio and Florida.

I thought Kerry won Pennsylvania because of the increasing Democratic strength in the suburbs.  It seems to me that to win Pennsylvania, a candidate just needs to win Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and some of the smaller cities like Scranton, Reading, and Allentown.  I'm not from Pa., but I do know that these towns are pretty blue-collar.  Shouldn't that help Democrats in Pennsylvania, or are the voters in these towns voting based on social issues?

Most of those smaller cities are still in the 55% Democratic column, but that is far less than they used to get in those places.

In order for a candidate to take Pennsylvania today, he must win by a large margin in one fo the three sections (Philly, "T", Pittsburgh) and at least finish above the majority in one of the other two.  Kerry barely accomplished this in 2004.  I think he carried the Pittsburgh area by about 53% which far, far, FAR less than the 70% majorities that Democrats could once reasonably expect to comand in the region.  Even in the Reagan landslide of 1984, the Democrats managed to poll 58% in this area.

This treand is offset, however, by Republican loses in the Philadelphia metro, but not quite.  As a whole, I would say that the state had pulled about 5% in favor of the Republicans since the days of Reagan.  True, Philadelphia is growing faster than other parts of the state, but Republican end roads into the Philly exurbs like Allentown and Reading are also aparent.  As well as the fact that the Lancaster-York area has expirienced tremedous growth in the past 30 years, as has State College and these areas don't see to be getting any less Republican.

Lancaster and York are two completely different cities. York county is very blue-collar...but it's blue-collar Republican. The city of York is a Democratic stronghold though. Lancaster has a totally different vibe. Much less blue-collar, more suburban looking...with a hip, liberal feel to downtown (though it's actually fairly Republican). The majority of Lancaster's growth is coming from Philadelphia and to a lesser extent New York, which would lead to a Democratic swing (I believe Lancaser county actually did see a slight Kerry trend). York's growth has been very rapid, and is coming mostly from Baltimore's suburbs, which at this time...seems to favor Republicans. Pennsylvania is just a state that in every little corner seems to be getting pulled in different directions. The Harrisburg metro is just a miniature Pennsylvania and is getting pulled in all directions with people moving in from all over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

I've said for sometime that I expect Pennsylvania to continue to stay about the same....a Democratic leaning swing state. We would easily go Republican in a Republican landslide...but in close elections, we swing Democratic.

Reading and Allentown are not exurbs. They are cities that are now (especially Reading) becoming more and more affiliated with the Philadelphia metro. I believe Berks, Lehigh and Northampton are all at the peak of their Republican swing, and will slowly become more Democratic as they become associated with the urbane and liberal Philadelphia suburbs. Even the true Philadelphia "exurbs", which are really just subdivisions sprouting up across Lancaster and Chester counties, are swinging both counties more Democratic.

I also believe that Democratic losses probably won't get much worse across the Southwest, the areas economy by nature would give Democrats a slight advantage (though of course not as much as 50 years ago). So I'd say Democrats will still win the Pittsburgh area by about 50-55% (depending on the candidate).

Pennsylvania really isn't that hard to predict, it's just that it's so close it can swing either way. The state is seeing very little overall population growth or trend either way.

You are mostly correct, however, don't assume that those people coming from New York are going to swing the area in favor of the Democrats.  Why are they leaving New York in the first place?  I can't be sure, but I can give some educated guesses.

I missed your Pittsburgh comments, what about the economy around there do you think would keep in it in the Democratic column?  The northern and easter suburbs are treanding heavily Republican, and this tread is starting to get into the once uber Democratic strongholds like New Castle.

[12th Doctor]

I think supersoulty and danwxman give good points here.  I have only passed western PA, so I have to give soulty the judgement there, but also Max Power as well.   danwxman hit on the South Central/Southeast to a tee however I am getting a little skittish about Bucks County. They barely elected Kerry and upgraded to a hard right Mike Fitzpatrick for Congress over the moderate libertarian Jim Greenwood.  Had the Dems a Peter Kostmayer or libertarian leaning liberal, they would have picked up PA 8.  I have good feelings about Montgomery, Delaware, and northern Chester counties and think Lois Murphy will win PA 6.  I will have to admit PA is getting pulled in every which way and the deciding factor where I'm from will be will the Bucks Dems pull their collective heads out of their asses?  Most of the younger people I know from that area are quite liberal so there is promise.   

I would imagine that Lackawanna County and the Lehigh Valley are strong Democratic places purely from an economic standpoint.

Talk to Keystone Phil about the Lehigh Valley.  He'd disagree with you strongly.  They did elect Pat Toomey to Congress, however, it was mainly because the Dems put up morons.  We also took two recent blows in special elections, but they were also GOP held seats to begin with.  I think it's temporarily pulling right due to exurbia, but will pull back left again when it becomes suburbia.  The steel industry is dead there.  Mack Truck in Allentown is also not doing so hot either.  The GOP smelled blood there and capitalized bigtime.  Our last two hopes there are Jennifer Mann and T.J. Rooney and the first one lost a State Senate special election when Charlie Dent when on to Congress.

Not only that, but the valley has been tettering on the edge towards the GOP since 2000.  Both Gore and Kerry barely made it past in the Allentown area.

[12th Doctor]

I think supersoulty and danwxman give good points here.  I have only passed western PA, so I have to give soulty the judgement there, but also Max Power as well.   danwxman hit on the South Central/Southeast to a tee however I am getting a little skittish about Bucks County. They barely elected Kerry and upgraded to a hard right Mike Fitzpatrick for Congress over the moderate libertarian Jim Greenwood.  Had the Dems a Peter Kostmayer or libertarian leaning liberal, they would have picked up PA 8.  I have good feelings about Montgomery, Delaware, and northern Chester counties and think Lois Murphy will win PA 6.  I will have to admit PA is getting pulled in every which way and the deciding factor where I'm from will be will the Bucks Dems pull their collective heads out of their asses?  Most of the younger people I know from that area are quite liberal so there is promise.   

I would imagine that Lackawanna County and the Lehigh Valley are strong Democratic places purely from an economic standpoint.

Talk to Keystone Phil about the Lehigh Valley.  He'd disagree with you strongly.  They did elect Pat Toomey to Congress, however, it was mainly because the Dems put up morons.  We also took two recent blows in special elections, but they were also GOP held seats to begin with.  I think it's temporarily pulling right due to exurbia, but will pull back left again when it becomes suburbia.  The steel industry is dead there.  Mack Truck in Allentown is also not doing so hot either.  The GOP smelled blood there and capitalized bigtime.  Our last two hopes there are Jennifer Mann and T.J. Rooney and the first one lost a State Senate special election when Charlie Dent when on to Congress.

Not only that, but the valley has been tettering on the edge towards the GOP since 2000.  Both Gore and Kerry barely made it past in the Allentown area.

What about Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and the anthracite coal districts?

They've been holding steady largely due to the fact they do not have MCMansions like the Lehigh Valley.  The economic situation in that area is quite glum.  My younger sister goes to the University of Scranton and it is a depressing area to be in except for maybe the ski resorts.  My guess is it will stay Dem for a while.

That is a pretty fair assesment.  Even it is less Democratic than it used to be, though.

[12th Doctor]

Lehigh county is trending Democrat, at least on the Presidential level.

Not according to the Almanac of American Politics 2006 (just got it today, so thrilled).  According to them, the area went 50-50 which is a considerably better margin than the Reps have recieved in recent elections.

[12th Doctor]

What do you call 2000-2004? With the surge in population in the Lehigh Valley recently, I'd say this marks a good trend (for Democrats that is).

Uh...going down in margin of victory in 1996 and 2000 but going up last year isn't a trend.

Their is something called the National Margin Phil.  Yes it did go down from 96-00, but against the national margin it has gone more Dem from 96-00 & then again from 00-04

Ok so there was a "trend" for Dems between two elections. I don't consider that a trend at all but anything to satisfy the hacks here.

You can consider that a trend,  just look at the suburban shift in the NYC & Philly burbs from 88-92 and then from 92-96, two elections, but I would say anyone at that time would agree their was a trend there

But Republican totals in the valley were depressed compared to national totals in the 60's, 70's (except Ford), and 80's.  It was not until the 90's and then 2000 and 2004 that Republicans began to run stronger there than they did state-wide or nationally.

[12th Doctor]

Are McMansions popping up?

Social conservativism is still pretty strong there, too.

I'm sensing that the Repubs up there are more along the lines of Charlie Dent, not Santoomey.  The economic populism is dying there I'll admit, but I'm also sensing a libertarian trend in that region in general.  That's why I think the Dems are holding on there at the presidential level.  Remember, I have said this before and I'll say it again- Democratic districts are by and large more Democratic than Republican districts are Republican.  The PA GOP can spead itself out better while the Dems are more dense.  Look at PA 132 (Mann) and PA 131 (Beyer, used to be Browne).  Mann's district is incredibly Demcoratic, say 75% while Beyer's is even, lean GOP.  This trend also holds true in Philadelphia.  You based NE Philly on being pro-life on 6 out of 8 districts having pro-life Reps.  Well, you can spaghetti string Crestmont Farms, Morrell Park, Parkwood, the more conservative areas of Somerton down to Fox Chase in one district thus effectively forcing O'Brien, Kenney into a primary battle and neutralizing Fox Chase at the same time.  You could also plop Perzel's base and spaghetti string a corridor down Harbison/Aramingo Ave to Taylor's base creating a Perzel-Taylor primary.  You do that I guarantee you will have 6 out of 8 pro-choice delegates from NE Philly in Harrisburg!  Boy would that be fun if we were to ever take back the PA House.

Wrong. If you look at the GOP primary, Dent got 52% and the two other conservative challengers made up the other 48%. Dent could have had a more serious challenge if O'Neill didn't run. The district is more Santoomey. PA 15 is not libertarian. Stop making it seem better for you. Toomey totally destroyed Specter there in the GOP primary so there's no arguing that the area GOP is more moderate and if you say the Democrats there are socially liberal, you've lost it.

Good luck taking back the State House anytime soon.

Quite honestly, I don't want the Democrats or the Republicans controlling the state assembly anymore. DeWeese is mentally retarded, and the Republican leadership is full of stuck-up fatcats who think they deserve more money while simultaneously trying to hurt the poor with an expanded sales tax.

I agree with you whole heartedly.  When it comes to the state legislature in PA, I wish we would just toss all the bastards out.

[12th Doctor]

My state Rep. Sam Smith is the majority leader, so one would think that I would want him to stay in.  But, if he has a primary opponent, I'll vote against him.  I've had enough of the inept bullsh**t that is the PA state Republican party.  Esspecially with this latest pay raise.  If you knew how much corrupt politicing went into this.  They basically forced Republican Reps to vote for it or else lose party backing.  They leaned extra hard on a group of Reps here in the north that the party has all but declared they don't like, gee, wonder why they did that?