Harvard/Harris national poll on Sanders and Warren favorability

[Mr. Morden]

Harvard/Harris national poll, conducted May 18-20:

http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/HCAPS_HarrisPoll_May-Wave_Top-Line-Memo_Registered-Voters-Current-Affairs.pdf

fav/unfav %:
Sanders 55/33% for +22%
Pence 45/40% for +5%
Warren 36/36% for +/-0
Trump 42/53% for -11%
Hillary Clinton 39/55% for -16%

[This account no longer in use.]

The fact that people like Pence more than Warren probably means that she wouldn't be that good of a candidate. Calling it now, Warren will be the Jeb Bush of 2020.

[McGovernForPrez]

The fact that people like Pence more than Warren probably means that she wouldn't be that good of a candidate. Calling it now, Warren will be the Jeb Bush of 2020.

Don't think she'll be the Jeb Bush of 2020. I still don't think Warren is gonna run, but if she did I think she would be more like a Dukakis or Kerry type in that regard, but amplified because she's a woman.

[Mr. Morden]

The fact that people like Pence more than Warren probably means that she wouldn't be that good of a candidate. Calling it now, Warren will be the Jeb Bush of 2020.

Bernie Sanders was only at about +5 on favorability back when only ~70% had an opinion on him, and now he's +25 in the aggregate of polling:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/bernie-sanders-favorable-rating

And of course, it works the other way too.  Hillary Clinton used to be extremely popular, and is now rather unpopular.  Not sure favorability #s this far out are terribly predictive.

[Shadows]

Paul Ryan - 33/49  -16
Mitch McConnell - 23/43  -20
Chuck Schumer - 28/36  -6
Nancy Pelosi - 30/51   -21

Congrats Nancy Pelosi for overtaking Mitch McConnell as the person having the worst approval ratings !

                           Sanders  vs  Warren
Very favorable -        21               16
Favorable -               34               20
Unfavorable -            16               11
Very unfavorable -     17               25
Never heard -            2                10
No opinion -              10               18

[Shadows]

The fact that people like Pence more than Warren probably means that she wouldn't be that good of a candidate. Calling it now, Warren will be the Jeb Bush of 2020.

Bernie Sanders was only at about +5 on favorability back when only ~70% had an opinion on him, and now he's +25 in the aggregate of polling:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/bernie-sanders-favorable-rating

And of course, it works the other way too.  Hillary Clinton used to be extremely popular, and is now rather unpopular.  Not sure favorability #s this far out are terribly predictive.

If you look at her home state & the favorable ratings there, Warren is a polarizing figure there as well gobbling down the liberal support but she has not made much headways among Independents & has very high disapproval among conservatives.

Warren is uber partisan - She sounded the most partisan in the CAP conference (Trump this n that without building on ideas as much as she should considering her intellect).

Sanders on the other hand has a landslide margin among independents & a significant vote among conservatives as well (he is able to cut into many pro-life n religious figures). But then home state approvals only mean so much. Warren has plenty of time before 2020!

[Mr. Morden]

If you look at her home state & the favorable ratings there, Warren is a polarizing figure there as well gobbling down the liberal support but she has not made much headways among Independents & has very high disapproval among conservatives.

Warren is uber partisan - She sounded the most partisan in the CAP conference (Trump this n that without building on ideas as much as she should considering her intellect).

Well, at this point I think we're being sidetracked from the point that CXSmith made (which is what started this comment chain), about Warren being another Jeb Bush.  That part makes no sense to me, because "being partisan" or having middling favorability #s is hardly a killer for failing to even win the nomination.  Heck, Trump had higher unfavorability #s **among Republicans** than almost the entire rest of the field, yet still managed to win the nomination.

[Bull Moose Base]

I can't see the cross tabs but I would guess Sanders's strong numbers are driven by higher than average marks from Republicans (and Independents who are effectively Republican) because his attacks on Hillary and clashes with the Democratic Party appeal to their negative partisanship. I would bet if he were the nominee his numbers would be pulled a bit closer toward a more standard partisan split, not so much better than Warren (with the caveat that women voters probably have a higher tolerance for combative men than vice versa, even if not consciously). That said, it's completely plausible that a couple years from now, we'll see an almost 80-year old socialist, armed with evidence he's the Democrats' most electable candidate.

 

[MM876]

The fact that people like Pence more than Warren probably means that she wouldn't be that good of a candidate. Calling it now, Warren will be the Jeb Bush of 2020.

Calling her the Jeb Bush of 2020 might be going a bit far; Warren would probably have a lot of support in the primary that Jeb didn't have, but this does confirm some of my concerns that Warren isn't a good general election candidate. I think it probably has more to do with being the most visible and most targeted 2020 nominee than it does with anything she has done, but I don't think she can win a general election unless there's a recession in 2020.

[Bull Moose Base]

The fact that people like Pence more than Warren probably means that she wouldn't be that good of a candidate. Calling it now, Warren will be the Jeb Bush of 2020.

Calling her the Jeb Bush of 2020 might be going a bit far; Warren would probably have a lot of support in the primary that Jeb didn't have, but this does confirm some of my concerns that Warren isn't a good general election candidate. I think it probably has more to do with being the most visible and most targeted 2020 nominee than it does with anything she has done, but I don't think she can win a general election unless there's a recession in 2020.

A poll last week had her up 10 on Trump despite being unknown to many voters.

The Jeb Bush comparison is nonsense. The Bush brand had been destroyed and his views on immigration were anathema to his own party's base whereas Warren is very well liked among Democrats.

Warren's break-even favorables are fairly hard for any nominee to best after simultaneously trying to pander to their own base and taking fire from the other party as their nomination becomes clear. Look at what happened to Christie's approvals in New Jersey, not just because of Bridgegate but because of his presidential campaign. If the Trump presidency does anything, it should end talk that any party's nominee can't win.

[Shadows]

I can't see the cross tabs but I would guess Sanders's strong numbers are driven by higher than average marks from Republicans (and Independents who are effectively Republican) because his attacks on Hillary and clashes with the Democratic Party appeal to their negative partisanship. I would bet if he were the nominee his numbers would be pulled a bit closer toward a more standard partisan split, not so much better than Warren (with the caveat that women voters probably have a higher tolerance for combative men than vice versa, even if not consciously). That said, it's completely plausible that a couple years from now, we'll see an almost 80-year old socialist, armed with evidence he's the Democrats' most electable candidate.

 

Nope that's pretty much a ridiculous theory & has no basis with crosstabs. People have been posting about crosstabs for a long while now & Sanders did have considerable unfavorables & low Republican support but his support was driven record support among Independents specifically (He was +40 in some polls) & massive Dem support (Sanders had 80-90% favorability among Hillary voters, far higher than Warren or any other).

As a matter of fact, Sanders consistently attacking Trump with liar & con man comments has put his approvals among Republicans even lower & has pulled his approval from 60% to 53% odd now. Pretty sure he would be sitting in 65%+ if he was not an active politician.

The whole independents who are effectively Republican makes no sense considering he is massively popular among Democratic leaning independents/progressives & was winning them 3/1 against Hillary in the primaries. Sanders' home state favorability is also 80% where else he is doing phenomenal numbers among Independents !

BTW do you know why Democrats have a more favorable of Sanders to Warren - In the last survey,
Hillary supporters said they have a much more favorable opinion of Sanders than Warren (Sanders had around 7-8% disapprovals to Warren's 17-18% odd - This is after the 2016 primary campaign)

[Bull Moose Base]

I can't see the cross tabs but I would guess Sanders's strong numbers are driven by higher than average marks from Republicans (and Independents who are effectively Republican) because his attacks on Hillary and clashes with the Democratic Party appeal to their negative partisanship. I would bet if he were the nominee his numbers would be pulled a bit closer toward a more standard partisan split, not so much better than Warren (with the caveat that women voters probably have a higher tolerance for combative men than vice versa, even if not consciously). That said, it's completely plausible that a couple years from now, we'll see an almost 80-year old socialist, armed with evidence he's the Democrats' most electable candidate.

 

Nope that's pretty much a ridiculous theory & has no basis with crosstabs. People have been posting about crosstabs for a long while now & Sanders did have considerable unfavorables & low Republican support but his support was driven record support among Independents specifically (He was +40 in some polls) & massive Dem support (Sanders had 80-90% favorability among Hillary voters, far higher than Warren or any other).

As a matter of fact, Sanders consistently attacking Trump with liar & con man comments has put his approvals among Republicans even lower & has pulled his approval from 60% to 53% odd now. Pretty sure he would be sitting in 65%+ if he was not an active politician.

The whole independents who are effectively Republican makes no sense considering he is massively popular among Democratic leaning independents/progressives & was winning them 3/1 against Hillary in the primaries. Sanders' home state favorability is also 80% where else he is doing phenomenal numbers among Independents !

BTW do you know why Democrats have a more favorable of Sanders to Warren - In the last survey,
Hillary supporters said they have a much more favorable opinion of Sanders than Warren (Sanders had around 7-8% disapprovals to Warren's 17-18% odd - This is after the 2016 primary campaign)

Maybe you're right but I don't see cross tabs here. Where do you see them?

I didn't suggest Sanders had high unfavorables among Hillary voters. The theory was he has lower than usual unfavorables with anti-Hillary Republicans/Republican-leaning Independents coupled with normal strong partisan support among his own party. I'm speculating though since I don't see the breakdown.

As for Warren having lower favorables among Hillary supporters than Sanders, that's normal since she's not as well known.