538: Donald Trump’s Base Is Shrinking
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  538: Donald Trump’s Base Is Shrinking
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Author Topic: 538: Donald Trump’s Base Is Shrinking  (Read 1706 times)
Virginiá
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« on: May 24, 2017, 02:28:23 PM »

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-base-is-shrinking/

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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2017, 02:36:23 PM »

Some good news.

It's nice that there's more data at hand to disprove the people who keep claiming that "All of Trump's voters will never abandon him because they're all racists/xenophobes/cultists/etc.
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Sumner 1868
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« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2017, 02:37:58 PM »

Some good news.

It's nice that there's more data at hand to disprove the people who keep claiming that "All of Trump's voters will never abandon him because they're all racists/xenophobes/cultists/etc.

They aren't abandoning him. They're simply a bit less enthusiastic than before.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2017, 02:40:14 PM »

Some good news.

It's nice that there's more data at hand to disprove the people who keep claiming that "All of Trump's voters will never abandon him because they're all racists/xenophobes/cultists/etc.

They aren't abandoning him. They're simply a bit less enthusiastic than before.

As my 2nd quote stated:

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Also, sliding 'strong approval' numbers could also hint at depressed future turnout among those voters as well. Overall, it's not a good sign for Trump and the Republican Party in general.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2017, 02:49:56 PM »

The thing I'm keeping an eye on is Trump's job approval among Republicans:

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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2017, 02:52:41 PM »

Some good news.

It's nice that there's more data at hand to disprove the people who keep claiming that "All of Trump's voters will never abandon him because they're all racists/xenophobes/cultists/etc.

They aren't abandoning him. They're simply a bit less enthusiastic than before.

I don't think you're seeing the big picture here. Donald Trump lost the popular vote to the second most disliked candidate in modern presidential history (second only to him) and won the EC by 80,000 votes in three states; all less than 1% margins.

If just 10% of his base abandons him by 2020 then he's screwed.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2017, 02:55:29 PM »

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-base-is-shrinking/

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About goddamn time.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #7 on: May 24, 2017, 03:03:14 PM »

People we are only 4-5 months in
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Yank2133
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« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2017, 03:05:45 PM »


True, but this time period is suppose to the high point of a president's approval ratings.

This is what makes Trump's utter incompetence astonishing. A normal and competent president would be hovering at 50%+ by just showing some self discipline and control.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2017, 03:24:34 PM »


True, but this time period is suppose to the high point of a president's approval ratings.

This is what makes Trump's utter incompetence astonishing. A normal and competent president would be hovering at 50%+ by just showing some self discipline and control.
Actually that was my point we are only 4-5 months in an his base is already getting demoralized
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Yank2133
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« Reply #10 on: May 24, 2017, 03:26:07 PM »


True, but this time period is suppose to the high point of a president's approval ratings.

This is what makes Trump's utter incompetence astonishing. A normal and competent president would be hovering at 50%+ by just showing some self discipline and control.
Actually that was my point we are only 4-5 months in an his base is already getting demoralized

Ah, I see.
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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #11 on: May 24, 2017, 03:30:39 PM »

Some good news.

It's nice that there's more data at hand to disprove the people who keep claiming that "All of Trump's voters will never abandon him because they're all racists/xenophobes/cultists/etc.

They aren't abandoning him. They're simply a bit less enthusiastic than before.

I don't think you're seeing the big picture here. Donald Trump lost the popular vote to the second most disliked candidate in modern presidential history (second only to him) and won the EC by 80,000 votes in three states; all less than 1% margins.

If just 10% of his base abandons him by 2020 then he's screwed.

No, your talking about his soft supporters (such as the Obama-Trump swing voters that obviously exist even though Dailykos pretends they don't) rather than his base. Very different groups of people.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #12 on: May 24, 2017, 03:32:36 PM »


True, but this time period is suppose to the high point of a president's approval ratings.

This is what makes Trump's utter incompetence astonishing. A normal and competent president would be hovering at 50%+ by just showing some self discipline and control.

For Trump, self discipline means reading from a teleprompter instead of ranting, and staying off Twitter. And control means demanding loyalty oaths, bullying subordinates into humiliating displays, and denying reality in favor of his fantasies. And that's not enough for anyone outside his cult.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #13 on: May 24, 2017, 03:37:36 PM »

Some good news.

It's nice that there's more data at hand to disprove the people who keep claiming that "All of Trump's voters will never abandon him because they're all racists/xenophobes/cultists/etc.

They aren't abandoning him. They're simply a bit less enthusiastic than before.

I don't think you're seeing the big picture here. Donald Trump lost the popular vote to the second most disliked candidate in modern presidential history (second only to him) and won the EC by 80,000 votes in three states; all less than 1% margins.

If just 10% of his base abandons him by 2020 then he's screwed.

No, your talking about his soft supporters (such as the Obama-Trump swing voters that obviously exist even though Dailykos pretends they don't) rather than his base. Very different groups of people.

Fair enough Tongue
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Santander
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« Reply #14 on: May 24, 2017, 04:03:42 PM »


True, but this time period is suppose to the high point of a president's approval ratings.

This is what makes Trump's utter incompetence astonishing. A normal and competent president would be hovering at 50%+ by just showing some self discipline and control.
Actually that was my point we are only 4-5 months in an his base is already getting demoralized
That's because no President has been treated more unfairly. We are weary, but we fight on.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #15 on: May 24, 2017, 04:39:47 PM »

Good.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #16 on: May 24, 2017, 04:53:36 PM »


True, but this time period is suppose to the high point of a president's approval ratings.

This is what makes Trump's utter incompetence astonishing. A normal and competent president would be hovering at 50%+ by just showing some self discipline and control.
Actually that was my point we are only 4-5 months in an his base is already getting demoralized
That's because no President has been treated more unfairly. We are weary, but we fight on.

James Garfield was shot in the ear less than 4 months into his term.
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I Won - Get Over It
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« Reply #17 on: May 24, 2017, 04:59:09 PM »

My guess is that initial numbers includes reductant Trump voters. Right now his numbers are temporary (or not) too low because of the temporary (or not) scandals. I think that his "true" numbers are March-April.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #18 on: May 24, 2017, 05:53:40 PM »


True, but this time period is suppose to the high point of a president's approval ratings.
This is what makes Trump's utter incompetence astonishing. A normal and competent president would be hovering at 50%+ by just showing some self discipline and control.

Actually that was my point we are only 4-5 months in an his base is already getting demoralized

That's because no President has been treated more unfairly. We are weary, but we fight on.

Fox and the white nationalist spread this "no President has been treated more unfairly" nonsense, and the trump stormtroopers repeat it like a bunch of parrots.
Uggggg !
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #19 on: May 24, 2017, 05:59:51 PM »


True, but this time period is suppose to the high point of a president's approval ratings.

This is what makes Trump's utter incompetence astonishing. A normal and competent president would be hovering at 50%+ by just showing some self discipline and control.
Actually that was my point we are only 4-5 months in an his base is already getting demoralized
That's because no President has been treated more unfairly. We are weary, but we fight on.
Trump accused his predecessor of being born foreign country because of his foreign sounding name and was the subject of the following outrage: wearing a tan suit, putting mustard on his cheeseburger, an saluting the troops with a cofee cup in his hand. So kindly f-off with that bs
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Crumpets
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« Reply #20 on: May 24, 2017, 06:15:13 PM »


True, but this time period is suppose to the high point of a president's approval ratings.

This is what makes Trump's utter incompetence astonishing. A normal and competent president would be hovering at 50%+ by just showing some self discipline and control.
Actually that was my point we are only 4-5 months in an his base is already getting demoralized
That's because no President has been treated more unfairly. We are weary, but we fight on.
Trump accused his predecessor of being born foreign country because of his foreign sounding name and was the subject of the following outrage: wearing a tan suit, putting mustard on his cheeseburger, an saluting the troops with a cofee cup in his hand. So kindly f-off with that bs
Don't forget the time he gave the Queen an iPod, despite the fact that she already had one. The fact that he wasn't impeached over that, well...
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #21 on: May 25, 2017, 08:03:26 PM »

Some good news.

It's nice that there's more data at hand to disprove the people who keep claiming that "All of Trump's voters will never abandon him because they're all racists/xenophobes/cultists/etc.

They aren't abandoning him. They're simply a bit less enthusiastic than before.

I don't think you're seeing the big picture here. Donald Trump lost the popular vote to the second most disliked candidate in modern presidential history (second only to him) and won the EC by 80,000 votes in three states; all less than 1% margins.

If just 10% of his base abandons him by 2020 then he's screwed.

If just 3% of his base abandons him by 2020 he's screwed. FIFY

I very seriously doubt he will run again.
Actually, the orange-haired slug didn't really want the job or expected to win.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #22 on: May 25, 2017, 10:26:37 PM »

Some good news.

It's nice that there's more data at hand to disprove the people who keep claiming that "All of Trump's voters will never abandon him because they're all racists/xenophobes/cultists/etc.

They aren't abandoning him. They're simply a bit less enthusiastic than before.

I don't think you're seeing the big picture here. Donald Trump lost the popular vote to the second most disliked candidate in modern presidential history (second only to him) and won the EC by 80,000 votes in three states; all less than 1% margins.

If just 10% of his base abandons him by 2020 then he's screwed.

No, your talking about his soft supporters (such as the Obama-Trump swing voters that obviously exist even though Dailykos pretends they don't) rather than his base. Very different groups of people.

Fair enough Tongue

People almost always go from one category to the neighboring category (strong approval, slight approval, undecided/indifferent/mixed, slight disapproval, strong disapproval.

As if you didn't know, I am in the "strong disapproval" category. It's hard for me to see him having done anything right, and much inexcusably wrong.  I so strongly disapprove that I would like to see him leave this country, once and for all, in shame.

I doubt that this horrible man can feel shame. I am guessing that he either faults those who dislike his agenda for holding perverse values, or that he is always right no matter what anyone else says.

He promised to make the world better by doing horrible things to people that his followers held in contempt. He is now hurting the people who trusted him.   
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