What's the black VAP for the Columbus seat? Any VRA concerns about dilution there?
I'm not a huge fan of the NE corner seat or the green one that is around 1 county wide on the Indiana border, but all in all a good map.
24.5% BVAP circa the 2010 census. There is not much dilution. The black neighborhoods are mostly in that CD. The VRA is not triggered unless there is a 50% BVAP CD to be had. No way is it in play in Columbus. The Cleveland CD is 41.7% BVAP, which makes it performing as a minority CD, but not by all that much. Thus the lines cannot be cleaned up with the CD that mostly wraps it, without making the Cleveland CD non-performing for a minority. That won't happen. The NE corner CD is only lean Pub anyway. I know the Columbus seat won't be a Section 2 seat, but the current district is 33% black and elected a black representative, who narrowly won a primary with a high degree of racially polarized voting. I was merely wondering if any problems would be encountered by shifting it such that the candidate of the minority group's choice (Joyce Beatty) would likely lose the primary.
This is a good textbook example for whether or not the Trumpian realignment is permanent and/or whether it also carries over down-ballot.
