Is Rod Blum going to lose in 2018?

[The Arizonan]

I think that he can actually lose in 2018 if it's a big enough wave, entrenched or not.

[smoltchanov]

He can. But, given Iowa's rather sharp swing to the right of late, in this case wave must be so big, that it will, probably, be not important.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, it will be a wave election and net House and Governor mansions.

[Brittain33]

Yes, this district is not as Trumpian as he'd like and his behavior does not have "wave survivor" stamped all over it.

[PAK Man]

I find it amusing when non-Iowans claim beyond a reasonable doubt that the Democratic Party of Iowa is dead, when that's the polar opposite of what someone actually living in Iowa is seeing.

As someone who has been a registered voter in Iowa for 10 years, here are my thoughts:

I think easily he can lose. Democrats didn't show up in Iowa last year because they were all pro-Bernie and refused to vote for Clinton. (The amount of Sanders supporting friends of mine who voted for Gary Johnson instead of Clinton is astonishing) Already State Rep. Abby Finkenauer is running, and there's other candidates who are rumored to run as well.

The governor's race has about six Democrats already running, with several others publicly considering, and they're fired up to challenge the Republicans after the state GOP rewrote the state's long-standing collective bargaining laws (even lifelong Republicans were furious at it - there was a town hall meeting where one lifelong Republican said he felt betrayed and will never vote Republican again). And while it didn't impact law enforcement, I know a lot of cops who normally vote Republican that were furious at what the state legislature did, and they're worried that the legislature will go back on its promise to not touch law enforcement bargaining laws (the rewrite didn't impact public safety, but did impact teachers, correctional officers, probation officers, and other public employees)

Blum won a second term fairly easily for two reasons; one, depressed Democratic turnout because of the aforementioned hatred of Clinton. And two, Monica Vernon was not very well-loved among the state's Democrats. She didn't run that great of a campaign - I think she assumed that she'd get an easy win after the national GOP didn't initially back Blum, but once Paul Ryan took over as speaker, the national GOP began sending money to him. Also, she really was not the best candidate to run. She had been dogged by the fact that she was a registered Republican up until not long before her initial bid for Congress in 2014. Also, she had just come off of two failed campaigns; she lost the 2014 primary for this seat to Pat Murphy (who just barely lost to Blum) and then she was selected as the running mate to Jack Hatch, who ran a TERRIBLE gubernatorial campaign against Branstad.

There's also the fact that Andy McGuire, who at the time of both campaigns was the state Democratic Party chair, did a godawful job at leading the state's Democrats. No Democrat I know actually likes her, especially after her failures at recruiting strong candidates for office. I can't stand her myself, and I'm seriously hoping she doesn't come anywhere close to winning the Democratic primary for governor this cycle.

Oh, and Blum also attracted national attention for this, which will surely be used in campaign ads against him: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/09/rod-blum-walks-out-of-interview-238145

[Hindsight was 2020]

Hey PAK have you heard anything about Pam Jochum thinking about running for Blum's seat? She would probably be the best recruit

[PAK Man]

I haven't heard anything lately, but I do remember her name was being mentioned. A friend of mine who follows Iowa politics better than I do tells me more Democrats will run besides Finkenauer, but he didn't get more specific than that.

[Gass3268]

I find it amusing when non-Iowans claim beyond a reasonable doubt that the Democratic Party of Iowa is dead, when that's the polar opposite of what someone actually living in Iowa is seeing.

As someone who has been a registered voter in Iowa for 10 years, here are my thoughts:

I think easily he can lose. Democrats didn't show up in Iowa last year because they were all pro-Bernie and refused to vote for Clinton. (The amount of Sanders supporting friends of mine who voted for Gary Johnson instead of Clinton is astonishing) Already State Rep. Abby Finkenauer is running, and there's other candidates who are rumored to run as well.

The governor's race has about six Democrats already running, with several others publicly considering, and they're fired up to challenge the Republicans after the state GOP rewrote the state's long-standing collective bargaining laws (even lifelong Republicans were furious at it - there was a town hall meeting where one lifelong Republican said he felt betrayed and will never vote Republican again). And while it didn't impact law enforcement, I know a lot of cops who normally vote Republican that were furious at what the state legislature did, and they're worried that the legislature will go back on its promise to not touch law enforcement bargaining laws (the rewrite didn't impact public safety, but did impact teachers, correctional officers, probation officers, and other public employees)

Blum won a second term fairly easily for two reasons; one, depressed Democratic turnout because of the aforementioned hatred of Clinton. And two, Monica Vernon was not very well-loved among the state's Democrats. She didn't run that great of a campaign - I think she assumed that she'd get an easy win after the national GOP didn't initially back Blum, but once Paul Ryan took over as speaker, the national GOP began sending money to him. Also, she really was not the best candidate to run. She had been dogged by the fact that she was a registered Republican up until not long before her initial bid for Congress in 2014. Also, she had just come off of two failed campaigns; she lost the 2014 primary for this seat to Pat Murphy (who just barely lost to Blum) and then she was selected as the running mate to Jack Hatch, who ran a TERRIBLE gubernatorial campaign against Branstad.

There's also the fact that Andy McGuire, who at the time of both campaigns was the state Democratic Party chair, did a godawful job at leading the state's Democrats. No Democrat I know actually likes her, especially after her failures at recruiting strong candidates for office. I can't stand her myself, and I'm seriously hoping she doesn't come anywhere close to winning the Democratic primary for governor this cycle.

Oh, and Blum also attracted national attention for this, which will surely be used in campaign ads against him: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/09/rod-blum-walks-out-of-interview-238145

I think a lot of people forget this seat was held by a Republican up until 2006.

[PAK Man]

Oh I remember. I also remember that Obama won the seat with 60% of the vote. That's a seat that it would be completely idiotic for Democrats to not challenge.

[KingSweden]

Any chance Anesa Katjazovic runs again?

[McGovernForPrez]

I can't imagine Tea Partier Rod Blum to be that safe in such a working class district. A strong candidate could easily knock him out.

[Ebsy]

Well he's trailing in GOP internals.

[Figueira]

Possibly. Remember, his district isn't as Republican as Iowa as a whole.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Possibly. Remember, his district isn't as Republican as Iowa as a whole.

[PAK Man]

Any chance Anesa Katjazovic runs again?

I'm not hearing her name among the circles I'm in. Shame, because I think she would have been a great candidate against Blum, and probably could have won.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Any chance Anesa Katjazovic runs again?

I'm not hearing her name among the circles I'm in. Shame, because I think she would have been a great candidate against Blum, and probably could have won.

What about Jeff Danielson?

[hopper]

Blum is toast in a D+1 seat with Trump as President and being as unpopular as he is currently.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news

[Mr. Reactionary]

He was supposed to lose in 2016.

[heatcharger]

He was supposed to lose in 2016.

As was McCaskill in 2012.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Iowa was leaning right of the nation, its going drift slowly leftward as the blue wave builds

[Badger]

I find it amusing when non-Iowans claim beyond a reasonable doubt that the Democratic Party of Iowa is dead, when that's the polar opposite of what someone actually living in Iowa is seeing.

As someone who has been a registered voter in Iowa for 10 years, here are my thoughts:

I think easily he can lose. Democrats didn't show up in Iowa last year because they were all pro-Bernie and refused to vote for Clinton. (The amount of Sanders supporting friends of mine who voted for Gary Johnson instead of Clinton is astonishing) Already State Rep. Abby Finkenauer is running, and there's other candidates who are rumored to run as well.

The governor's race has about six Democrats already running, with several others publicly considering, and they're fired up to challenge the Republicans after the state GOP rewrote the state's long-standing collective bargaining laws (even lifelong Republicans were furious at it - there was a town hall meeting where one lifelong Republican said he felt betrayed and will never vote Republican again). And while it didn't impact law enforcement, I know a lot of cops who normally vote Republican that were furious at what the state legislature did, and they're worried that the legislature will go back on its promise to not touch law enforcement bargaining laws (the rewrite didn't impact public safety, but did impact teachers, correctional officers, probation officers, and other public employees)

Blum won a second term fairly easily for two reasons; one, depressed Democratic turnout because of the aforementioned hatred of Clinton. And two, Monica Vernon was not very well-loved among the state's Democrats. She didn't run that great of a campaign - I think she assumed that she'd get an easy win after the national GOP didn't initially back Blum, but once Paul Ryan took over as speaker, the national GOP began sending money to him. Also, she really was not the best candidate to run. She had been dogged by the fact that she was a registered Republican up until not long before her initial bid for Congress in 2014. Also, she had just come off of two failed campaigns; she lost the 2014 primary for this seat to Pat Murphy (who just barely lost to Blum) and then she was selected as the running mate to Jack Hatch, who ran a TERRIBLE gubernatorial campaign against Branstad.

There's also the fact that Andy McGuire, who at the time of both campaigns was the state Democratic Party chair, did a godawful job at leading the state's Democrats. No Democrat I know actually likes her, especially after her failures at recruiting strong candidates for office. I can't stand her myself, and I'm seriously hoping she doesn't come anywhere close to winning the Democratic primary for governor this cycle.

Oh, and Blum also attracted national attention for this, which will surely be used in campaign ads against him: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/09/rod-blum-walks-out-of-interview-238145

Jeez. I hadn't heard much about this guy, but this interview solidifies that he's an assbag.

Seriously watch it. He had this little tantrum surrounded by elementary school children. Black children, whom according to the article Blum "insisted on having as a backdrop" to his interview.

"See folks? I'm PLENTY sensitive to the needy and those different from me even though I'm a conservative white guy whose about 100 years old!"

[Heisenberg]

He was supposed to lose in 2016.

And 2014.

Anyway, if the Democrats underperform in 2018 or focus more on the Sun Belt and the suburbs, this is exactly the kind of district where a Republican incumbent would win reelection.

Blum has really proven to be strong, I think he's favored to win reelection. And if Demcorats go the more Sun Belt/suburban route, that probably helps Blum. I think in the near future, IA-01 becomes more R than IA-03.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I really don't get into House races; however, Dems can pick up House seats in Iowa if they fail to capture the governor's chair.

WI and OH are redder at the governor's race than at the senate or House of representatives level and Dems are optimistic about picking up OH 18 and Baldwin's and Sherrod Brown's chances.

[DrScholl]

It mostly certainly won't be left off the Democratic target list and is already on there. In an all Republican midterm, Blum is probably not going to win again.