Trump ideology post-Trump

[Shadows]

I do agree broadly with Sanchez & TD. However, I feel it is unlikely that Trump would have a major lasting impact (like what he is happening with a progressive movement with the Democrats with 70-80% of the millennials supporting economic left policies). Trump had the entire Republican coalition plus a range of anti-establishment & struggling working class votes. But are they bound by a greater cause, an ideology & concrete policies that they are fighting for ?

Republicans have more Yes men than Democrats when it comes to ideology. Obama was begging & still Democrats were opposed to TPP while the Republicans were mostly in favour (McConnell blasted Warren as a far left figure for opposing the so-called "common sense" TPP). Democrats have a core economics ideology (which you could argue has become diluted), while the key strength of the GOP is in their socio-cultural ideology.

They are being forced to not ask for Social Security & Medicare cuts because of Trump's promises but are ready to gut Medicaid, Food stamps, Meals on Wheels, Scientific & Medical research & every single government program to make up for that. I am also skeptical if Trump can make the GOP more socially liberal (given their evangelical base) or anti-war. Progressive Democrats are pushing hard for specific policy positions, primaring people, running themselves. If Trump's alt-right base wants to be anti-war, more socially liberal & a populist force, they have to take the plunge into electoral politics rather than making tweets ! Also, Republican donors like Koch brothers & the so-called establishment has a stranglehold on the party & elected leaders!

[Shadows]

BTW these alt-rights people are mostly frauds. They will change their ideology in 1s. Ann Coulter is supposed to be anti-war in the Middle East & what not. Remember her during the Iraq War -


“I think Iraq was a crucial part of the war on terrorism—if you had to choose between Iraq and Afghanistan, I’d take Iraq over Afghanistan,” Coulter said on a Fox Business panel, debating anti-war libertarians, in late 2011. “PATRIOT Act, fantastic, Gitmo, fantastic, waterboarding, not bad, though [even harsher] torture would’ve been better.”


Coulter went on “[Iraq] is a fantastic country for regime change,” that “torture works beautifully,” and that position regarding potential blowback or unintended negative consequences to the war were merely a “crazy ACLU argument.” & chided “treasonous” Democratic politicians and liberals for being soft on terror and dictatorship—“Democrats weren’t interested in liberating Afghanistan and Iraq from woman-hating Islamicist fanatics,”

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/04/19/ann-coulter-said-anti-war-dems-were-traitors-now-she-says-war-is-like-crack-for-trump


She has said stuff, like bombing all of Middle east, carpet bombing people, converting them to Christianity. This was a woman worse than Dick Cheney & now suddenly she is supposed to be anti-War.! The alt-right's anti-war thing is totally fraudulent, opportunistic & intended to ride the Trump train. These people will turn on the second an evangelical anti-immigration neo-con "Dick Cheney" comes in 2024 !

[pbrower2a]

How much of Trump's flavor of Republicanism and his ideas that are different than GOP orthodoxy going to stick around in the party once he's gone? Will the post-Trump GOP be more like the pre-Trump GOP, or incorporate a lot of his philosophy?

At this point I believe that practically everything that Donald trump promotes will be repudiated and rejected.  He will be shown as an example of how not to be President.

I expect a complete renunciation of Donald Trump by 2024. Republicans from the pre-Trump era? There isn't much left from before the Trump era that remains admirable. Republicans have the enablers of '43', the Tea Party, and now Trump cronies. By 2020 the Republicans who have established their reputations before 2000 will be too old to reset the political debate.

I predict a political catastrophe for the GOP in 2020. Note well that the true realignments occur under the shadow of defeats that convince everyone that winning the old way is no longer possible.  It will take new pols, those who can distance themselves from the idea that no human suffering is in excess so long as it turns, enforces, or indulges a profit.

It is conservatism that will have to be rebuilt. Old conservative virtues that have a foundation in liberty, tradition, family, community, virtue, and enterprise will have to rebuilt as an alternative to cronyism, demagoguery, and bigotry. If Republicans do not rebuild the old sort of conservatism, then Democrats will do so by default. A conservatism that offers nothing worthy of preservation is ethically empty; it can succeed solely on cunning and force. It will fail  electorally or militarily -- but one way or another it is doomed.    

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Economic nihilism has been the only real platform of the GOP has existed since Goldwater at least.

Nixon never ran a campaign on dismantling the New Deal. And he didn't govern with the intent of ever taking out the New Deal.

In fact he pushed hard for a lot of new regulations. Hardly an economic nhilist in even a similar mold as Goldwater ever was.

But it was also Nixon that enacted the earliest deregulation measures, eliminated industrial subsidies (thus getting the outsourcing ball rolling), and generally watered-down whatever social expansions he did agree to enact. Besides, Nixon was a bit on the left of the GOP as a whole in the 1970s, but conservatives barely noticed because they were too busy obsessively hating the New Left.

He instituted the EPA and proposed an individual mandate healthcare system. Goldwater's GOP would call him a socialist today.

So...? A Republican President that followed the popular tide in a number of issues and was even willing to try to "beat" the Democrats at their own game, but nevertheless worked to bring working-class voters into the GOP for cultural reasons to create a new majority that, yes, would push for liberalization in some aspects, segued into the more overtly ideological Reagan.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

I feel that TD and others are underestimating the strength that cultural white nationalism has on the base. Not necessarily the GOP establishment, who I agree are bound to Reaganite ideology, but the base.

Remember, there are massive demographic shifts that are happening here in America. And on top of that, the relative privilege of straight white Christian males is decreasing, which looks like they're losing power for a lot of people. And this will be a new experience for those people.

Furthermore, these people are constantly barraged with propaganda, from Fox News to Breitbart. And especially when you've grown up listening to such powerful propaganda, nothing will change your mind.

So I'm sure that Trump-style nationalism will remain a powerful force in this country. Furthermore, I'm increasingly unconvinced that a TD-style realignment is even possible anymore; I severely doubt that even a second Great Depression under Republican rule will convince these people that Republicans don't serve their best interests. Maybe they don't like Reaganite ideology anymore, but they'll continue voting for Republicans until the end of time in order to preserve their cultural dominance from the evil minorities and Democrats.

[The_Doctor]

I feel that TD and others are underestimating the strength that cultural white nationalism has on the base. Not necessarily the GOP establishment, who I agree are bound to Reaganite ideology, but the base.

Remember, there are massive demographic shifts that are happening here in America. And on top of that, the relative privilege of straight white Christian males is decreasing, which looks like they're losing power for a lot of people. And this will be a new experience for those people.

Furthermore, these people are constantly barraged with propaganda, from Fox News to Breitbart. And especially when you've grown up listening to such powerful propaganda, nothing will change your mind.

So I'm sure that Trump-style nationalism will remain a powerful force in this country. Furthermore, I'm increasingly unconvinced that a TD-style realignment is even possible anymore; I severely doubt that even a second Great Depression under Republican rule will convince these people that Republicans don't serve their best interests. Maybe they don't like Reaganite ideology anymore, but they'll continue voting for Republicans until the end of time in order to preserve their cultural dominance from the evil minorities and Democrats.

Younger American whites don't have the same attachment to cultural identity issues as their elders. If they did the white vote 18-29 wouldn't have been weaker than 2012 in their Republican support (they backed trump by just 3). They also are more diverse (1/6 of all couples today are interracial).

The nationalism is happening because the neoliberalism and neoconservatism ideologies don't have the support they used to have. So Trumpy turbocharged the one remaining engine of the Republican plane that worked to make up for the other three not working. To be honest this nationalism was already taking place before he ran for president.

I'm not convinced that beyond older white voters and a segment of young white voters that in all honesty that the Trump ideology and cultural nationalism commands a majority of the voters. It didn't last Novemner and it doesn't have a majority today.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

Younger American whites don't have the same attachment to cultural identity issues as their elders. If they did the white vote 18-29 wouldn't have been weaker than 2012 in their Republican support (they backed trump by just 3). They also are more diverse (1/6 of all couples today are interracial).

The nationalism is happening because the neoliberalism and neoconservatism ideologies don't have the support they used to have. So Trumpy turbocharged the one remaining engine of the Republican plane that worked to make up for the other three not working. To be honest this nationalism was already taking place before he ran for president.

I'm not convinced that beyond older white voters and a segment of young white voters that in all honesty that the Trump ideology and cultural nationalism commands a majority of the voters. It didn't last Novemner and it doesn't have a majority today.

First, I appreciate that you referenced the Pew survey on interracial marriage I posted on this forum.

That said, I still think that a segment of the younger generation, namely a segment of Gen Z, will become as Trumpist as their forefathers, even as the generation as a whole becomes more diverse. That segment would identify with their racial identities quite strongly, even if they're more secular. While this segment will include both rural and suburban youths, as well as both poorer and middle class youths, WWC youths would be particularly susceptible as the decimation of unions ensures that they'll never develop a coherent class identity en masse. Thus Bernie-style class outreach to these youths will remain futile (while ironically it'll likely be more accepted by college-educated, middle class liberals).

Furthermore, even if that segment of Trumpist youths, or even Trumpists in general, never get a majority, they don't need to. As the past few elections have demonstrated, they can effectively force the country under minority rule due to geographic advantages, gerrymandering, and their devotion to the Republican party. Furthermore, even if/when those factors wane and they clearly become a minority, they'll lash out even harder, making them a very dangerous policial bloc that will continue to obstruct and poison American politics for years to come (analogous to how Russia presents an active danger to American hegemony despite only having an economy the size of California).

[Technocracy Timmy]

Two things,

1. Racism is a constant. At least 25% of people in any given society are racist. I expect this to be no different with millennials or homelanders (gen z). The real question becomes do people prioritize cultural/social issues or economic issues first? The New Deal southern whites were incredibly racist in a way that would make the alt right youth blush.

2. Most of the alt right youth haven't even gone to college. They're mostly awkward teenagers who haven't even been in a close romantic relationship before. Give it time, many will grow out of their hardcore nationalist phase when they actually meet another Muslim person who doesn't want to behead them or hear out different political and cultural ideas from their professors.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Well - actually Sanchez has me here. And do we really disagree?

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I was going to respond to the rest of your post but I roughly agree. Trump is definitely the logical conclusion of Reaganism. I just don't agree Trump stands for a meaningful distinct ideology aside from Reaganism, but actually stands for its logical conclusion as you said.

I was trying to make the point Trump was a moment in time, with this quote being relevant:

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The essence of my disagreement, if any, is that Trump is the birth of a new nationalism, or whatever you have.

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I'm not sure what you mean by the "same old used to be" meant - what did you mean by this?

"Same old used to be" is a quote from an old folk song, but what I roughly meant was that the GOP was going to swing back wildly and fast to the pre-Reagan era. We'll need a roughly Nixonian platform-civil libertarian, prosperity at home, a basic "cold sandwich" standard of economic security for all, and peace abroad.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

BTW these alt-rights people are mostly frauds. They will change their ideology in 1s. Ann Coulter is supposed to be anti-war in the Middle East & what not. Remember her during the Iraq War -


“I think Iraq was a crucial part of the war on terrorism—if you had to choose between Iraq and Afghanistan, I’d take Iraq over Afghanistan,” Coulter said on a Fox Business panel, debating anti-war libertarians, in late 2011. “PATRIOT Act, fantastic, Gitmo, fantastic, waterboarding, not bad, though [even harsher] torture would’ve been better.”


Coulter went on “[Iraq] is a fantastic country for regime change,” that “torture works beautifully,” and that position regarding potential blowback or unintended negative consequences to the war were merely a “crazy ACLU argument.” & chided “treasonous” Democratic politicians and liberals for being soft on terror and dictatorship—“Democrats weren’t interested in liberating Afghanistan and Iraq from woman-hating Islamicist fanatics,”

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/04/19/ann-coulter-said-anti-war-dems-were-traitors-now-she-says-war-is-like-crack-for-trump


She has said stuff, like bombing all of Middle east, carpet bombing people, converting them to Christianity. This was a woman worse than Dick Cheney & now suddenly she is supposed to be anti-War.! The alt-right's anti-war thing is totally fraudulent, opportunistic & intended to ride the Trump train. These people will turn on the second an evangelical anti-immigration neo-con "Dick Cheney" comes in 2024 !

Insert clapping gif here.

[The_Doctor]

"Same old used to be" is a quote from an old folk song, but what I roughly meant was that the GOP was going to swing back wildly and fast to the pre-Reagan era. We'll need a roughly Nixonian platform-civil libertarian, prosperity at home, a basic "cold sandwich" standard of economic security for all, and peace abroad.

I roughly agree. Wrote a new article in BTM based on our conversation actually; will put it up in a few hours.

[Beet]

Ann Coulter is not Alt-Right. She's just an astute commentator who knows her audience.

[Shadows]

I agree with Techno-Tim here, the whole high school & then university system changes you somewhat, albeit slowly, it gives people knowledge (who won't go around calling climate change hoax), the chance to meet different people & so on. It de-radicalizes people. Older people will die off, younger people are much more Dem (including younger white folks) & are socially liberal, anti-war, anti-authoritarian tendencies, atleast economically moderate. Add Inter-racial marriages, huge increase in hispanic population, etc ! The TV audience is shrinking fast. FOX is not the future but perhaps Breitbart & the so-called alt-right figures online will be the new sources of information.

People under-estimate the effect of the economy. Obama won by 7% in 2018 (& it was related to the Bush economy). People value their lives, family, etc & can only take on so much of FOX BS. After Trumpcare passes, when a person on Medicaid loses healthcare, when a pre-existing person is charged 3 times the rate or when millions lose healthcare & some go bankrupt, they will re-think their support. That doesn't mean people should wish of Trumpcare to pass but that healthcare is an issue of life & death for people - As is the economy, jobs, providing for your family, ensuring some dignified life for your children etc !

[darklordoftech]

I respectfully disagree with TD. Trumpism is a feeling, yes. But it is the natural byproduct of Reaganism, which is entirely based in rhetoric and emotion.

Notice how the GOP always has a boogeyman. Stalin in the 1940s. Mao in the 1950s. The Viet Cong in 1960s and 1970s. Castro. The Iranians. The Libyans. The Soviets. The Iraqis. The Taliban. Al Qaida. Iran. Hugo Chavez. The Islamic State. North Korea. The list goes on and on. This all predates Trump; it is politicized, and used an electoral battering ram. How is this not emotion?

Only recently has the Democratic Party embraced this strategy, with the Russia fear-mongering. From the time of Andrew Jackson, the Democrats have looked inward towards the common man, rather than externally at perceived enemies.

The Republican Party for forty years has used the religious right to mobilize rural and suburban voters, appealing to them on "traditional values" and "faith and freedom" rhetoric. They have used divisive tactics, have turned back the clock on LGBT rights, and for years now have been pushing anti-Muslim elements into the national discourse. Donald Trump is not the first Republican to call for the surveillance of mosques. He is not the first President to call for broad surveillance period. He is not the first Republican to declare war on sanctuary cities.

Let's face it, Trump is the logical conclusion of Reaganism. He's the pendulum swing, which is going to start rolling us back to that same old used to be.

Indeed, when someone's used to thinking in terms of "welfare queens", "war on drugs", "Obama is a Muslim", "Obama was born in Kenya", etc., they're likely to support Trump. Trump's campaign was largely a promise to deport the people who Republicans have fearmongered about for years.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I respectfully disagree with TD. Trumpism is a feeling, yes. But it is the natural byproduct of Reaganism, which is entirely based in rhetoric and emotion.

Notice how the GOP always has a boogeyman. Stalin in the 1940s. Mao in the 1950s. The Viet Cong in 1960s and 1970s. Castro. The Iranians. The Libyans. The Soviets. The Iraqis. The Taliban. Al Qaida. Iran. Hugo Chavez. The Islamic State. North Korea. The list goes on and on. This all predates Trump; it is politicized, and used an electoral battering ram. How is this not emotion?

Only recently has the Democratic Party embraced this strategy, with the Russia fear-mongering. From the time of Andrew Jackson, the Democrats have looked inward towards the common man, rather than externally at perceived enemies.

The Republican Party for forty years has used the religious right to mobilize rural and suburban voters, appealing to them on "traditional values" and "faith and freedom" rhetoric. They have used divisive tactics, have turned back the clock on LGBT rights, and for years now have been pushing anti-Muslim elements into the national discourse. Donald Trump is not the first Republican to call for the surveillance of mosques. He is not the first President to call for broad surveillance period. He is not the first Republican to declare war on sanctuary cities.

Let's face it, Trump is the logical conclusion of Reaganism. He's the pendulum swing, which is going to start rolling us back to that same old used to be.

Indeed, when someone's used to thinking in terms of "welfare queens", "war on drugs", "Obama is a Muslim", "Obama was born in Kenya", etc., they're likely to support Trump. Trump's campaign was largely a promise to deport the people who Republicans have fearmongered about for years.

No, the idea that in general undocumented people should be deported is legitimate and supported broadly by the public. That isn't the point I'm making.

[darklordoftech]

I respectfully disagree with TD. Trumpism is a feeling, yes. But it is the natural byproduct of Reaganism, which is entirely based in rhetoric and emotion.

Notice how the GOP always has a boogeyman. Stalin in the 1940s. Mao in the 1950s. The Viet Cong in 1960s and 1970s. Castro. The Iranians. The Libyans. The Soviets. The Iraqis. The Taliban. Al Qaida. Iran. Hugo Chavez. The Islamic State. North Korea. The list goes on and on. This all predates Trump; it is politicized, and used an electoral battering ram. How is this not emotion?

Only recently has the Democratic Party embraced this strategy, with the Russia fear-mongering. From the time of Andrew Jackson, the Democrats have looked inward towards the common man, rather than externally at perceived enemies.

The Republican Party for forty years has used the religious right to mobilize rural and suburban voters, appealing to them on "traditional values" and "faith and freedom" rhetoric. They have used divisive tactics, have turned back the clock on LGBT rights, and for years now have been pushing anti-Muslim elements into the national discourse. Donald Trump is not the first Republican to call for the surveillance of mosques. He is not the first President to call for broad surveillance period. He is not the first Republican to declare war on sanctuary cities.

Let's face it, Trump is the logical conclusion of Reaganism. He's the pendulum swing, which is going to start rolling us back to that same old used to be.

Indeed, when someone's used to thinking in terms of "welfare queens", "war on drugs", "Obama is a Muslim", "Obama was born in Kenya", etc., they're likely to support Trump. Trump's campaign was largely a promise to deport the people who Republicans have fearmongered about for years.

No, the idea that in general undocumented people should be deported is legitimate and supported broadly by the public. That isn't the point I'm making.

I meant things like "Mexico sends their rapists and drug dealers," "No Muslims whatsoever allowed in," etc.

[catographer]

There is no Trump ideology. There is most definitely the Reaganite ideology.

Think of it hypothetically; assume President Jeb Bush right now. McConnell made the point Trump is basically indistinguishable from Jeb Bush in governance, and that's very telling. (Actually Jeb would be slightly more successful).

Trump is a feeling. Look at his most ardent defenders and look at what they care about. They care about the cultural Rorschach, not the economic side. They're broadly populist, but they don't have a true North Star. Trump doesn't have one either, other than his feelings about fair trade and immigration. Has Trump ever defined his populist ethos in anything more than broad based ideas when it comes to delivering a square deal? He's never expressed and defined his feelings in a broad New Deal or Reagan Revolution way of life; it's a simple straight up cultural ethos and sentiment.

Understand the wings of the Republican Party are broadly defined by the 1980 realignment. Reagan stamped the neoliberal evangelical imprint on the GOP and it's been that way ever since. There's been talk about being more populist, less socially hard core but it never really pans out. The GOP will be until the realignment the most neoliberal and socially conservative party that circumstances allow. The business and socially evangelical wings are still there and their 1980 pact holds (while picking up suburban white voters).

Take a look at the Dodd-Frank repeal vote; the House GOP seriously debated internally a measure to keep or gut the Durbin rule. If Trump's populist ethos was as real as we imagined, the GOP would have never had a debate. Ditto Net neutrality. Ditto the budget. AHCA is another example of the GOP's core neoliberal North Star. Take a look at the GOP leadership, the GOP staffers, the GOP policy makers. None of them are true populists; most/all of them are shades of Reaganite neoliberals.

To put it more bluntly, anyone mistaking Mick Mulvaney for a populist? Tom Price? Reince Priebus? Steve Mnuchin? None of the all-stars are true populists; they're however true Reaganites. (The ones that aren't Democrats, anyway).  

So what comes after Trump-Penceism?

The honest truth, the GOP is coming to a moment of reckoning about the Reaganite neoliberalism - social evangelicism. Of all the warning shots across the bow of the GOP, the Trumpite revolution is a warning sign that neoliberal orthodoxy is failing but the GOP simply does not have the manpower or infrastructure or ideological firepower to shift.  

The Party needs to embrace a new True North and come to terms that it cannot simply be a white populist party or a white Reaganite party. Unfortunately, political parties in our eras simply don't change until they are blown out of the water so badly that entire wings are clipped and chopped off.

The Democrats blew past tons of warning signs in the 1960s all the way to Election Eve 1980. The GOP is now barreling past the same warning signs.

Agreed 100%. Trumpism isn't an ideology, it's a mentality, a way of doing and thinking about things. On race btw, I think it should be the goal of the GOP to become a multiethnic party, get free market and conservative economic policies to appeal to nonwhites and try to include nonwhites in the economic growth and prosperity that they promise. Dems aren't talking to non-college educated whites, but the GOP isn't talking to minorities.

[wolfsblood07]

How much of Trump's flavor of Republicanism and his ideas that are different than GOP orthodoxy going to stick around in the party once he's gone? Will the post-Trump GOP be more like the pre-Trump GOP, or incorporate a lot of his philosophy?

There is no Trump philosophy. It's all about inflating his own ego and nothing else.

The blatant hypocrisy of religious and social conservatives, the non-stop lying, the open criminality, and the callous disregard for human rights and the Constitution will all stick around, because they were already there. At least, they'll stick around until the Republican party is stomped down into the deplorable muck of history, where it belongs. Whether that will take ten years or a hundred, I'm not certain. There are a lot of deplorable people (using that term loosely) in America.

You sound like Rosie O'Donnell.  What has the Republican party ever done that causes the far left to believe such insanity?  Right now the GOP controls the legislative and executive branches, and life goes on as it did before.
Trump is doing a great job and the left is having fits.  They want to impeach him for no reason.