Predict the number of House seats Dems will pick up in 2018 (May 2017 edition)

[jamestroll]

I will revise my prediction down to 20 for now. But I could see it as few as 6 seats or as much as 42. The large range is due to so much uncertainly in recruitment, polarization and how partisan people have become compared to 2006.

It is not even out of question it will be a President Pence.

[Free Bird]

If Trump and/or Pence improve, then maybe 1-8. If not, then maybe 10-28.

[The_Doctor]

I will revise my prediction down to 20 for now. But I could see it as few as 6 seats or as much as 42. The large range is due to so much uncertainly in recruitment, polarization and how partisan people have become compared to 2006.

It is not even out of question it will be a President Pence.

By 2018?

[Ronnie]

It's just a shot in the dark, but I'll say 15.  Republicans aren't going to give up their house majority without a fight even if Trump has a 1% approval rating.

[Xing]

I'll guess 14 for now.

[smoltchanov]

As of now - about 20. May be - slightly less..

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As of now - about 20. May be - slightly less..

Come on, now, Dems will net the House, and win GA 06 and MT AL. Dems only lost MT by 1% and with Tester on the ballot, Dems can certainly win that. GA06, Handal won't make it to runoff. Things are looking up.

[Chief Justice Keef]

I'd say between 25-30. I think there's a lot working against them (not just gerrymandering, but also a general hubris within the party about it's direction) but enough that they can earn a majority of seats.

[smoltchanov]

As of now - about 20. May be - slightly less..

Come on, now, Dems will net the House, and win GA 06 and MT AL. Dems only lost MT by 1% and with Tester on the ballot, Dems can certainly win that. GA06, Handal won't make it to runoff. Things are looking up.

For now i stick to my prediction

[Adam Griffin]

As of now - about 20. May be - slightly less..

Dems only lost MT by 1%

GA06, Handal won't make it to runoff

What even...?

Dimensional glitches - we're getting transmissions from an alternate universe.


I'm feeling bullish at the moment, so let's say 40 for now (definitely on the high-end).

[The Other Castro]

As of now - about 20. May be - slightly less..

Dems only lost MT by 1%

GA06, Handal won't make it to runoff

What even...?

I think he's somehow posting from both the past and the future at the same time.

[Nyvin]

The Mathematics behind the election would say 30-40.    Who knows how accurate that will be.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Just over half think the Dems will retake the House in 2018. Interesting.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its easier for the outparty to take the House in a midterm than a presidential race.  Most think that Trump will be gone anyways in 2020, so Dems should have a better shot at winning the House in 2018 than 2020.

Anyways 2020 will bold well for Dems, and by then, Dems will have an excellent chance to sell the American public their agenda for the next 10 years when the census comes out in 2021.

[This account no longer in use.]

It'll bold well, eh?

[Hammy]

Just over half think the Dems will retake the House in 2018. Interesting.

Well over half of Dems here thought Clinton would win and Montana's special election would go to the Dems.

I'm going to go with 5-15 seats (voted 0-9, single digits are more likely than not) because I can't see the Dems maintaining this level of energy until then without blowing it somehow.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just over half think the Dems will retake the House in 2018. Interesting.

To be fair, that's probably the best news for Paul Ryan in awhile.

10-25 is about right, this early in the campaign.  However, the battlegrounds are in states Dems are likely to pick up gubernatorial chambers in: FL, IL, VA(Comstock), NV, NM, CO, MI, PA and NJ and Mnt will be in the Democratic column when Tester wins reelection.  In WI, Iowa and OH, Dems can offset governor chamber losses with Baldwin and Sherrod Brown winning and Blum will definately lose.

[McGovernForPrez]

I said 30-40. I figure I'm being on the conservative side, given my expectations. Nixon lost 48 seats during Watergate. Trump is messing with healthcare which is inherently the type of thing which causes large waves. The American middle class really cares about their healthcare, and Obamacare is currently polling well above water. Even if the AHCA fails we could see a 1994 style wave. The economy is a big wild card but there's a chance it shows cracks in the facade by 2018, employment wise Trump has nowhere to go but down. Given these three combined factors I think the minimum number of seats we could see flipped is around the high 20's and low 30's.

[Virginiá]

My thoughts on this keep changing so often because this administration is constantly producing more and more scandal.

I think ~15 seats (give or take) at minimum is appropriate right now, but I'm betting 25 - 35 will be the final tally (probably on the lower end). I do not think it had to be this bad, but on top of Trump's growing Russia/corruption scandals, Republicans are pushing big, unpopular changes on very contentious issues (healthcare), along with a host of smaller issues that are bound to selectively tick off various groups of people, and this will have repercussions. Further, we have been seeing an undeniably massive surge of energy on the left, and Trump's stumbles are really driving candidate recruitment and fundraising through the roof. It's a perfect storm in the making.

We're only months into this presidency and we are already seeing signs of a wave. Imagine how things will be 15 months from now? Yes, it could get better for Republicans, but so far it has only been getting worse, and generally presidents tend to lose popularity over the years. Trump does not seem like an exception to that. His growing unpopularity, the unpopular policies and weekly - almost daily scandals will continue to damage the GOP brand going into 2018. If we slide into any sort of recession before the midterm elections, I could easily see even more dramatic losses for the GOP.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My thoughts on this keep changing so often because this administration is constantly producing more and more scandal.

I think ~15 seats (give or take) and 25 will be the number on Nov, 2018
 
Due to the Latino vote in states like FL, NV, CO, IL, NJ, NM and TX where they will reaffirm the Hillary districts where she won and gubernatorial mansion pickups. 

[politicallefty]

Right now, I'll say 40-45 seats. We're at the end of a gerrymander cycle and the President's party is unpopular. If there's a law of American politics I believe in, it is that the President's party will suffer during a midterm. That's assuming his approval ratings are at least in the mid-30s or above. If he's below that, the losses are going to be far more severe.

[Sir Mohamed]

Hard to predict. I'm sure we will pick up some seats but I'm not sure whether it will be enough to regain a majority. I guess something between 10 and 25 seats. Maybe 30, but not much more. Gun to my head? I'll say 13. As much as I would like it, as of now, I doubt it will be a 2006/2010 style wave.

However, Dems probably win the PV nationally.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Dems don't win the House it will be a disappointment, Dems should do everything they can to win a House Majority.

[Webnicz]

I see a lot of posters saying "this will not be a reverse 2010"

Lets please keep in mind that 2018 does not have to be a "reverse 2010" size wave in order for dems to retake the house, the have doesn't even have to be half the size.

[Beet]

I see a lot of posters saying "this will not be a reverse 2010"

Lets please keep in mind that 2018 does not have to be a "reverse 2010" size wave in order for dems to retake the house, the have doesn't even have to be half the size.

No, it would have to be bigger. In 2006, the Dems had to win the popular vote by 7.7% to win a bare majority assuming a uniform swing, now it's 11.5%.