If Trump isn't on the ballot in 2020, what is the likelier reason as to why?

[ShadowRocket]

So as stated in the thread title, if Trump really isn't the GOP Presidential nominee in 2020, what is the more likely reason as to why? Does he get successfully impeached or resign from office, or does he pull a LBJ in '68 and simply decides not to run again if it looks like he is heading for certain defeat?

[Mr. Morden]

Write in: If he's not on the ballot in a given state, the most likely reason is that it's a state with a Democratic legislature that passed a law saying that you need to have released your tax returns in order to make it on the ballot:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?;topic=255913.0

[The_Doctor]

Quite honestly, I do not see him on the 2020 ballot.

The big reason is that the Russian scandal has so much smoke and Mueller will definitely indict or convict some people, given that these investigations are never made without the intent to convict someone (given the prestige associated with said investigations).

These scandals make it very hard for me to see Trump breaking through the narrative and being a viable nominee in 2020. If we had known half of what we did today during 2016, Clinton would have won in a massive landslide.

For a lot of reasons, I do not think he will be President in 2020. It's very hard to have a sitting President who is under this cloud of suspicion like this and weakened to the point of foregoing re-election and winning under Pence. Pence is going to benefit from the incumbency factor. The fact is that most people think he fired Comey to obstruct the Russian investigation and with the daily drip weakening his presidency day by day, it just makes re-election that much harder.

There is simply too much baggage weighing him down that wasn't in place in 2016 that makes it hard for him to win a second term. I could be wrong, 3 years is a long time but we'll see.

[Mr. Morden]

Here is a related question to ponder:

If Trump is *not* the nominee next time, what is the probability that he will ever speak at a Republican National Convention ever again (whether in 2020 or any year after)?

[Technocracy Timmy]

Here is a related question to ponder:

If Trump is *not* the nominee next time, what is the probability that he will ever speak at a Republican National Convention ever again (whether in 2020 or any year after)?

0%.

[Oppo]

Here is a related question to ponder:

If Trump is *not* the nominee next time, what is the probability that he will ever speak at a Republican National Convention ever again (whether in 2020 or any year after)?

He might speak at a DNC nominating Gabbard (with Bannon pushing him).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Here is a related question to ponder:

If Trump is *not* the nominee next time, what is the probability that he will ever speak at a Republican National Convention ever again (whether in 2020 or any year after)?

He might speak at a DNC nominating Gabbard (with Bannon pushing him).

No

[This account no longer in use.]

I voted both just because it's an option

[Del Tachi]

I'll go with the second one.

[Inmate Trump]

Maybe he'll change his citizenship to Russian.

[Hammy]

I don't see impeachment as realistically likely--he'd "opt" not to run again. And by that I mean more than likely the party would find some way around denying him the nomination.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With Speaker Pelosi and a divided Senate, odds are that Trump choses not to stand for reelection.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Voted for Impeachment/Resignation, but the likeliest reason is his death. He's an old man. Otherwise, he'll run, because he can't help Make America Great Again!

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

needs an option for dead/incapacitated. dude is unhealthy as all hells

[LabourJersey]

I'd say there is a 1% chance of impeachment but a higher chance of resignation or death than people think. Statistically presidents have a 20% chance of dying in office--I'd say thats much higher for an older, unhealthy and hated president like Trump. I would give it a 20% he doesn't make it to Nov. 2020.

Overall I'd say it's probably a 40% chance he's not on the ballot, between resignation (3-4%?) and voluntary refusal to run (15%?)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump ethics will be enough for the Dems to win in 2018 and 2020, without impeachment. Just, like Clinton, he is innocent until proven guilty. But, it will be a factor in the elections.  Dems would rather have Trump on the ballot than Pence, in 2020 for Nancy Pelosi to be Speaker and Booker to be prez.

[user12345]

With his obesity, age, refusal to exercise and the stress of the Presidency, I could forsee him dying of natural causes before 2020.

[pbrower2a]

Possibilities from most likely to least likely:

1. reasons of health (including removal for such)
2. death in office
3. resignation in disgrace
4. resignation in recognition of failure (most likely, loss of one or both of the Houses of Congress and the realization that he cannot function as President under the circumstances)
5. impeachment and removal
6. defeat in the Republican primary
7. being kidnapped by space aliens

1 and 2 -- actuarial. He is over 70 and has bad health habits.
3 -- one or more deeds of his will be seen as grossly illegal, with  Republicans insisting that he resign
4 -- will he see himself as a failure as President for non-achievements?
5 -- This will take Republicans and Democrats in an unlikely act of bipartisanship
6 -- hasn't happened since the 1850s.
7 -- strictly for purposes of comparison, as I don't believe that such can happen.
6 --

[Illiniwek]

I really don't understand how he could want to sign up for 4 more years of this. But once he starts doing his Nuremburg-style rallies again he won't want to stop. So I think he would have to get removed before he removes himself.