Where will the four biggest states stand politically in 2040?

[libertpaulian]

Assuming current trends continue?

CA- Titanium D
TX- Tilt R, maybe even Tossup
FL- Tossup/Tilt R
NY- Likely D

[Kingpoleon]

CA: Tilt D(Asians and whites trending Republican)
FL: Tossup(Young Cuban-Americans emigrate back to democratic Cuba)
NY: Lean D(Jews trend R)
TX: Lean D(Hispanics liberalize, young moderates help keep it close to Tossup)

[Skill and Chance]

CA- Likely to Safe D (NorCal might drift toward the center long term due to Bernienomics and/or a Southern religious left movement gaining influence)
TX- Lean D
NY- Lean D
FL- Lean R

Bonus:

IL: Lean R
PA: Likely R
GA: Likely D
NC: Toss Up

[Technocracy Timmy]

I'm changing my answer to this on second thought:

CA - Dem
FL - Tossup
NY - Tossup
TX - Dem

[Virginiá]

I'm changing my answer to this on second thought:

CA - Dem
FL - Tossup
NY - Tossup
TX - Dem

In over 20 years, most of the old people moving to FL would not be as Republican as the current older people, so combined with over a generation's worth of Hispanic population growth and the ascendancy of FL Millennials, wouldn't that be enough to move Florida to at least some variation of leans Democratic? Right now the GOP has some counterweights to ongoing pro-Democratic trends, but those won't hold up forever.

Plus, I wonder about climate change as well. Florida will be impacted quite a bit by that, and it could cause an exodus of people from the state as water levels rise and hurricanes become more of an issue. I'm just not sure when that begins to have noticeable impacts. It could possibly take up to 2 or more generations.

[Technocracy Timmy]

^ Florida is a very weird state. I have no idea where it'll trend so I figured that it's likely that we'll see them stay somewhat of a tossup. Trump caused Texas and California to trend for the Democratic Party pretty strongly whereas Florida trended towards the Republican Party in 2016. And Florida has trended in favor of the GOP in 3/4 of the last elections.

[TheSaint250]

^ Florida is a very weird state. I have no idea where it'll trend so I figured that it's likely that we'll see them stay somewhat of a tossup. Trump caused Texas and California to trend for the Democratic Party pretty strongly whereas Florida trended towards the Republican Party in 2016. And Florida has trended in favor of the GOP in 3/4 of the last elections.

Obviously, minority growth will be the major factor in how the state leans.  It just depends on whether the GOP can win more minority votes or not and if northerners continue to vote as they do or even more so in favor of Republicans.

I have to agree with you, though. FL is a weird state politically.

[PragmaticPopulist]

CA - Safe D; unless Rs somehow make inroads in Hispanics and/or white college-educated voters, CA is going sharp D in the future

TX- Lean R to Tossup; by 2024, I can see Texas at least being lean R, if not a Tossup. Suburbs took a shift toward Democrats in 2016, and with Trump being the face of the GOP, I don't think that will revert.

NY - Safe D; While upstate did take a decidedly right turn in 2016, voters there seem to be quite elastic. Also, upstate's population is in decline, while the NYC area is increasing. Unless the GOP makes inroads into NYCs suburbs, I don't see it happening.

FL - Tossup; It's really hard to see where Florida will be, since it's population is always changing, effectively canceling out partisan trends. I'm tempted to say lean D due to an increasing Cuban population that leans D, but that's what I thought in 2016, so I have say a pure tossup.

[SoLongAtlas]

CA - D
FL - Tossup
NY - D
TX - Tossup