Pennsylvania redistricting in 2020 (split from GA-6 topic)
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  Pennsylvania redistricting in 2020 (split from GA-6 topic)
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Virginiá
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« on: May 26, 2017, 10:47:56 PM »
« edited: May 29, 2017, 02:02:32 PM by Virginia »

For starters, we don't have to just ignore the issue. Democrats can work to make it law that there is a non-partisan board, or whatever other acceptable un-political group/computer program/something else, that draws the lines for the districts.

At least in states where Democrats have the means, they might do better just to force Republicans to work with them to pass amendments to the state constitutions placing strict regulations on redistricting, and having them campaign for the amendment during the election, that way they are on record in case they try to go back on it later. For instance, in Pennsylvania, Democrats are poised to control legislative redistricting this time around. Republicans can either get on board, or feel the wrath of a savage gerrymander for at least 10 years. That is the better option, imo. I'd rather not continue this tit-for-tat scheming every 10 years (or less even)

But I can certainly sympathize with Griff's sentiment. Based on the past 8 years, it's become clear to me that Republican lawmakers don't really care about fair elections if they think they might lose a little bit of power, so they will screw over Democrats the first chance they get, and push the law as far as it will go to do it. It's hard to make the right moves in an environment like that.

** edit: split from GA-6 special election thread
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Torie
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« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2017, 06:31:22 AM »

For starters, we don't have to just ignore the issue. Democrats can work to make it law that there is a non-partisan board, or whatever other acceptable un-political group/computer program/something else, that draws the lines for the districts.

At least in states where Democrats have the means, they might do better just to force Republicans to work with them to pass amendments to the state constitutions placing strict regulations on redistricting, and having them campaign for the amendment during the election, that way they are on record in case they try to go back on it later. For instance, in Pennsylvania, Democrats are poised to control legislative redistricting this time around. Republicans can either get on board, or feel the wrath of a savage gerrymander for at least 10 years. That is the better option, imo. I'd rather not continue this tit-for-tat scheming every 10 years (or less even)

But I can certainly sympathize with Griff's sentiment. Based on the past 8 years, it's become clear to me that Republican lawmakers don't really care about fair elections if they think they might lose a little bit of power, so they will screw over Democrats the first chance they get, and push the law as far as it will go to do it. It's hard to make the right moves in an environment like that.

I am surprised that you think the Dems will control redistricting in PA in 2022. How did you arrive at that expectation?
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windjammer
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« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2017, 06:54:43 AM »

For starters, we don't have to just ignore the issue. Democrats can work to make it law that there is a non-partisan board, or whatever other acceptable un-political group/computer program/something else, that draws the lines for the districts.

At least in states where Democrats have the means, they might do better just to force Republicans to work with them to pass amendments to the state constitutions placing strict regulations on redistricting, and having them campaign for the amendment during the election, that way they are on record in case they try to go back on it later. For instance, in Pennsylvania, Democrats are poised to control legislative redistricting this time around. Republicans can either get on board, or feel the wrath of a savage gerrymander for at least 10 years. That is the better option, imo. I'd rather not continue this tit-for-tat scheming every 10 years (or less even)

But I can certainly sympathize with Griff's sentiment. Based on the past 8 years, it's become clear to me that Republican lawmakers don't really care about fair elections if they think they might lose a little bit of power, so they will screw over Democrats the first chance they get, and push the law as far as it will go to do it. It's hard to make the right moves in an environment like that.

I am surprised that you think the Dems will control redistricting in PA in 2022. How did you arrive at that expectation?
Torie,
PA democrats will control the redistricting for the state legislatures as it is drawn by a commission where someone appointed by the Supreme Court is the tie breaker. As the PA Supreme Court is controlled by the democrats, yes, they are going to control redistricting for PA for the state legislative legislatures.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2017, 10:10:03 AM »

I am surprised that you think the Dems will control redistricting in PA in 2022. How did you arrive at that expectation?

https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Pennsylvania

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I would presume Democrats could, and will, just refuse to seat a chair. At which point, the heavily Democratic Supreme Court puts in someone who would probably be more likely to go with Democrats on their plan. In fact, the state supreme court could get even more Democratic this year, where 1 seat is up and another 2 (1 D, 1 R) for a retention vote. The seat up is a Republican, so her defeat could leave only 1 Republican to 6 Democratic judges.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2017, 11:26:22 AM »

I am surprised that you think the Dems will control redistricting in PA in 2022. How did you arrive at that expectation?

https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Pennsylvania

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I would presume Democrats could, and will, just refuse to seat a chair. At which point, the heavily Democratic Supreme Court puts in someone who would probably be more likely to go with Democrats on their plan. In fact, the state supreme court could get even more Democratic this year, where 1 seat is up and another 2 (1 D, 1 R) for a retention vote. The seat up is a Republican, so her defeat could leave only 1 Republican to 6 Democratic judges.

It really doesn't matter all that much if the Supreme Court puts in a Dem tie breaker or not....the Democrats win in virtually ANY scenario that isn't completely Republican Controlled.   A neutral map would be  a huge improvement over what's in place now.[/list]
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Torie
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« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2017, 12:50:17 PM »

IC. Thanks. In a fair map, the Dems might gain only one seat, PA-7, while the Pubs drop two seats. But if it is a Dem gerrymander, particularly a vicious one, the Dems could pick up another 3 seats over that, wiping out the Philly area Pubs, and creating some snake that picks up Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Reading, with a couple of prongs into Chester and Montco, to grab some Dems that are within reach there.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2017, 01:03:24 PM »
« Edited: May 27, 2017, 01:12:20 PM by Mr.Phips »

IC. Thanks. In a fair map, the Dems might gain only one seat, PA-7, while the Pubs drop two seats. But if it is a Dem gerrymander, particularly a vicious one, the Dems could pick up another 3 seats over that, wiping out the Philly area Pubs, and creating some snake that picks up Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Reading, with a couple of prongs into Chester and Montco, to grab some Dems that are within reach there.

Wouldn't Dems also pick up PA-06?  Without that district going out into Lebanon county, and probably having to take in all of Reading, it becomes very tough for any Republican given the trends in Chester and Montgomery.

And then there's PA-08, where Republicans would no longer get to hand pick which parts of Montgomery go into that district.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #7 on: May 27, 2017, 01:12:40 PM »

IC. Thanks. In a fair map, the Dems might gain only one seat, PA-7, while the Pubs drop two seats. But if it is a Dem gerrymander, particularly a vicious one, the Dems could pick up another 3 seats over that, wiping out the Philly area Pubs, and creating some snake that picks up Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Reading, with a couple of prongs into Chester and Montco, to grab some Dems that are within reach there.

FTR, this advantage is only for legislative redistricting. The legislature has full control over the Congressional map, subject to gubernatorial veto of course. If I had to guess, I'd say a modestly pro-Dem gerrymander for legislative maps and a neutral Congressional map is likely. That is, unless Republicans suddenly realize how wonderful fair maps are, and try to push gerrymandering reform before 2020.

What would a Democratic legislative gerrymander for the state Senate/House maps look like? Could Democrats get themselves a majority, or at least maps where they frequently have good opportunities to get one?
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Torie
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« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2017, 06:22:44 PM »

IC. Thanks. In a fair map, the Dems might gain only one seat, PA-7, while the Pubs drop two seats. But if it is a Dem gerrymander, particularly a vicious one, the Dems could pick up another 3 seats over that, wiping out the Philly area Pubs, and creating some snake that picks up Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Reading, with a couple of prongs into Chester and Montco, to grab some Dems that are within reach there.

Wouldn't Dems also pick up PA-06?  Without that district going out into Lebanon county, and probably having to take in all of Reading, it becomes very tough for any Republican given the trends in Chester and Montgomery.

And then there's PA-08, where Republicans would no longer get to hand pick which parts of Montgomery go into that district.

The answer is no, about PA-06 as the maps play out. Northern Chester plus Berks equals lean Pub. What portion PA-08 gets along the Montco border is chump change. It makes very little difference. If Abington in Montco were along the border it would, but it isn't. Ditto if PA-08 grabs a couple of wards in Philly. In my map using population projections for 2020, PA-08 took the excess population in Montco (a couple of towns), so another CD filled the balance and no more, and one or two wards in Philly. It changed the PVI by about 0.5%. But in a Dem gerrymander, it would be curtains for the GOP in PA-08.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #9 on: May 29, 2017, 08:34:40 AM »

I realize this is off-topic, but how did PA become gerrymandered for the Republicans in the first place then?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #10 on: May 29, 2017, 10:02:11 AM »

To be clear, assuming that Wolf is reelected (which must have some risk), this is what we're looking at in PA:

  • Legislative redistricting: drawn by a commission that may favor Democrats
  • Congressional redistricting: drawn by incumbent GOP legislature with Democratic governor, or by a court if they can't agree
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #11 on: May 29, 2017, 11:54:02 AM »

IC. Thanks. In a fair map, the Dems might gain only one seat, PA-7, while the Pubs drop two seats. But if it is a Dem gerrymander, particularly a vicious one, the Dems could pick up another 3 seats over that, wiping out the Philly area Pubs, and creating some snake that picks up Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Reading, with a couple of prongs into Chester and Montco, to grab some Dems that are within reach there.

Wouldn't Dems also pick up PA-06?  Without that district going out into Lebanon county, and probably having to take in all of Reading, it becomes very tough for any Republican given the trends in Chester and Montgomery.

And then there's PA-08, where Republicans would no longer get to hand pick which parts of Montgomery go into that district.

The answer is no, about PA-06 as the maps play out. Northern Chester plus Berks equals lean Pub. What portion PA-08 gets along the Montco border is chump change. It makes very little difference. If Abington in Montco were along the border it would, but it isn't. Ditto if PA-08 grabs a couple of wards in Philly. In my map using population projections for 2020, PA-08 took the excess population in Montco (a couple of towns), so another CD filled the balance and no more, and one or two wards in Philly. It changed the PVI by about 0.5%. But in a Dem gerrymander, it would be curtains for the GOP in PA-08.

Actually, what part of Montco that is attached to Bucks in PA-08 does make a difference in such a close district.  Actually, I can think of three elections where it made the difference. It's the difference between the district being a Trump or Hillary district in 2016, the difference between it being a Romney or Obama district in 2012, and most important of all, it made the difference in electing Patrick Murphy in 2006.  Had the district included the piece of northern Montco rather than central Montco, Patrick Murphy would not have been elected in 2006. 
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Nyvin
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« Reply #12 on: May 29, 2017, 01:31:52 PM »

IC. Thanks. In a fair map, the Dems might gain only one seat, PA-7, while the Pubs drop two seats. But if it is a Dem gerrymander, particularly a vicious one, the Dems could pick up another 3 seats over that, wiping out the Philly area Pubs, and creating some snake that picks up Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Reading, with a couple of prongs into Chester and Montco, to grab some Dems that are within reach there.

Wouldn't Dems also pick up PA-06?  Without that district going out into Lebanon county, and probably having to take in all of Reading, it becomes very tough for any Republican given the trends in Chester and Montgomery.

And then there's PA-08, where Republicans would no longer get to hand pick which parts of Montgomery go into that district.

The answer is no, about PA-06 as the maps play out. Northern Chester plus Berks equals lean Pub. What portion PA-08 gets along the Montco border is chump change. It makes very little difference. If Abington in Montco were along the border it would, but it isn't. Ditto if PA-08 grabs a couple of wards in Philly. In my map using population projections for 2020, PA-08 took the excess population in Montco (a couple of towns), so another CD filled the balance and no more, and one or two wards in Philly. It changed the PVI by about 0.5%. But in a Dem gerrymander, it would be curtains for the GOP in PA-08.

Are you saying with 17 districts in 2020 what PA-8 gets from Montgomery is chump change?   After PA loses a district PA-8 will need almost 130k people from either Montgomery or Philly since each district is likely to be 755k each (or something like that), and Bucks is hardly growing and only has 626k currently.   

I don't know how much PA-8 gets from Montgomery now, but it certainly isn't 130k.   That's bound to change the district quite a bit depending on where the new population is drawn from.    It's either go west to Philly/Mont or go north into Allentown,  either option doesn't look good for Republicans.

PA-6 probably would be lean R in a fair map in 2020, but the trend would be toward the Democrats most likely,  unless the map goes from Chester to northern Montgomery into Allentown.

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #13 on: May 29, 2017, 01:53:03 PM »

The PA discussion is interesting, but how about moving it to its own thread?  It has nothing to do with the GA-6 election.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #14 on: May 29, 2017, 02:02:56 PM »

The PA discussion is interesting, but how about moving it to its own thread?  It has nothing to do with the GA-6 election.

Done. Sorry for derailing the thread Tongue
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« Reply #15 on: May 29, 2017, 02:31:06 PM »

So obviously this all hinges on Wolf being elected again, which is by no means a guarantee.  The Question is how good candidates Wagner and Mango are and if the GOP will field anyone else.
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Badger
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« Reply #16 on: May 30, 2017, 02:43:01 AM »

To be clear, assuming that Wolf is reelected (which must have some risk), this is what we're looking at in PA:

  • Legislative redistricting: drawn by a commission that may favor Democrats
  • Congressional redistricting: drawn by incumbent GOP legislature with Democratic governor, or by a court if they can't agree

But....

I am surprised that you think the Dems will control redistricting in PA in 2022. How did you arrive at that expectation?

https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Pennsylvania

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I would presume Democrats could, and will, just refuse to seat a chair. At which point, the heavily Democratic Supreme Court puts in someone who would probably be more likely to go with Democrats on their plan. In fact, the state supreme court could get even more Democratic this year, where 1 seat is up and another 2 (1 D, 1 R) for a retention vote. The seat up is a Republican, so her defeat could leave only 1 Republican to 6 Democratic judges.

Assuming Virgina's correct, which I have no reason to doubt--ever--where does the governor come into play for redistricting wars? [/list]
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Badger
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« Reply #17 on: May 30, 2017, 03:00:14 AM »

IC. Thanks. In a fair map, the Dems might gain only one seat, PA-7, while the Pubs drop two seats. But if it is a Dem gerrymander, particularly a vicious one, the Dems could pick up another 3 seats over that, wiping out the Philly area Pubs, and creating some snake that picks up Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Reading, with a couple of prongs into Chester and Montco, to grab some Dems that are within reach there.

Wouldn't Dems also pick up PA-06?  Without that district going out into Lebanon county, and probably having to take in all of Reading, it becomes very tough for any Republican given the trends in Chester and Montgomery.

And then there's PA-08, where Republicans would no longer get to hand pick which parts of Montgomery go into that district.

The answer is no, about PA-06 as the maps play out. Northern Chester plus Berks equals lean Pub. What portion PA-08 gets along the Montco border is chump change. It makes very little difference. If Abington in Montco were along the border it would, but it isn't. Ditto if PA-08 grabs a couple of wards in Philly. In my map using population projections for 2020, PA-08 took the excess population in Montco (a couple of towns), so another CD filled the balance and no more, and one or two wards in Philly. It changed the PVI by about 0.5%. But in a Dem gerrymander, it would be curtains for the GOP in PA-08.

Do you think there's a realistic chance Democrats could try splitting Pittsburgh and it's inner core suburbs (as opposed to outer-rim Allegheny County) to try making two Democratic leaning seats? If the district lines generally followed the rivers to include Democratic precincts going up to Aliquippa, etc. If one assumes voters will continue voting as they did in 2016 that could be chancy, but....

I suppose it depends on whether Mike Doyle is willing to go along with it and/or retire.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #18 on: May 30, 2017, 07:48:41 AM »

    Assuming Virgina's correct, which I have no reason to doubt--ever--where does the governor come into play for redistricting wars? [/list]

    My memory of PA from past cycles is that all those rules apply to the legislative redistricting but the congressional map is passed as a regular bill which the governor can veto.
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    Torie
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    « Reply #19 on: May 30, 2017, 09:40:14 AM »
    « Edited: May 30, 2017, 12:48:09 PM by Torie »

    IC. Thanks. In a fair map, the Dems might gain only one seat, PA-7, while the Pubs drop two seats. But if it is a Dem gerrymander, particularly a vicious one, the Dems could pick up another 3 seats over that, wiping out the Philly area Pubs, and creating some snake that picks up Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Reading, with a couple of prongs into Chester and Montco, to grab some Dems that are within reach there.

    Wouldn't Dems also pick up PA-06?  Without that district going out into Lebanon county, and probably having to take in all of Reading, it becomes very tough for any Republican given the trends in Chester and Montgomery.

    And then there's PA-08, where Republicans would no longer get to hand pick which parts of Montgomery go into that district.

    The answer is no, about PA-06 as the maps play out. Northern Chester plus Berks equals lean Pub. What portion PA-08 gets along the Montco border is chump change. It makes very little difference. If Abington in Montco were along the border it would, but it isn't. Ditto if PA-08 grabs a couple of wards in Philly. In my map using population projections for 2020, PA-08 took the excess population in Montco (a couple of towns), so another CD filled the balance and no more, and one or two wards in Philly. It changed the PVI by about 0.5%. But in a Dem gerrymander, it would be curtains for the GOP in PA-08.

    Are you saying with 17 districts in 2020 what PA-8 gets from Montgomery is chump change?   After PA loses a district PA-8 will need almost 130k people from either Montgomery or Philly since each district is likely to be 755k each (or something like that), and Bucks is hardly growing and only has 626k currently.  

    I don't know how much PA-8 gets from Montgomery now, but it certainly isn't 130k.   That's bound to change the district quite a bit depending on where the new population is drawn from.    It's either go west to Philly/Mont or go north into Allentown,  either option doesn't look good for Republicans.

    PA-6 probably would be lean R in a fair map in 2020, but the trend would be toward the Democrats most likely,  unless the map goes from Chester to northern Montgomery into Allentown.



    Here is a map I drew a few months ago, based on the census population projections published last year. About half of what Bucks needs is obtained from Montco, and half from Philly. The CD as drawn is about 6/10% more Dem than the existing CD per the 2008 election numbers. Granted in 2016, the portion of Montco in the CD trended to Trump, while the portion in my CD trended to Clinton, so the gap might widen, unless the trend was to Trump in the two Philly wards included in the CD.

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