Pennsylvania redistricting in 2020 (split from GA-6 topic)

[Nyvin]

I am surprised that you think the Dems will control redistricting in PA in 2022. How did you arrive at that expectation?

https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Pennsylvania

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I would presume Democrats could, and will, just refuse to seat a chair. At which point, the heavily Democratic Supreme Court puts in someone who would probably be more likely to go with Democrats on their plan. In fact, the state supreme court could get even more Democratic this year, where 1 seat is up and another 2 (1 D, 1 R) for a retention vote. The seat up is a Republican, so her defeat could leave only 1 Republican to 6 Democratic judges.

It really doesn't matter all that much if the Supreme Court puts in a Dem tie breaker or not....the Democrats win in virtually ANY scenario that isn't completely Republican Controlled.   A neutral map would be  a huge improvement over what's in place now.[/list]

[Nyvin]

IC. Thanks. In a fair map, the Dems might gain only one seat, PA-7, while the Pubs drop two seats. But if it is a Dem gerrymander, particularly a vicious one, the Dems could pick up another 3 seats over that, wiping out the Philly area Pubs, and creating some snake that picks up Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Reading, with a couple of prongs into Chester and Montco, to grab some Dems that are within reach there.

Wouldn't Dems also pick up PA-06?  Without that district going out into Lebanon county, and probably having to take in all of Reading, it becomes very tough for any Republican given the trends in Chester and Montgomery.

And then there's PA-08, where Republicans would no longer get to hand pick which parts of Montgomery go into that district.

The answer is no, about PA-06 as the maps play out. Northern Chester plus Berks equals lean Pub. What portion PA-08 gets along the Montco border is chump change. It makes very little difference. If Abington in Montco were along the border it would, but it isn't. Ditto if PA-08 grabs a couple of wards in Philly. In my map using population projections for 2020, PA-08 took the excess population in Montco (a couple of towns), so another CD filled the balance and no more, and one or two wards in Philly. It changed the PVI by about 0.5%. But in a Dem gerrymander, it would be curtains for the GOP in PA-08.

Are you saying with 17 districts in 2020 what PA-8 gets from Montgomery is chump change?   After PA loses a district PA-8 will need almost 130k people from either Montgomery or Philly since each district is likely to be 755k each (or something like that), and Bucks is hardly growing and only has 626k currently.   

I don't know how much PA-8 gets from Montgomery now, but it certainly isn't 130k.   That's bound to change the district quite a bit depending on where the new population is drawn from.    It's either go west to Philly/Mont or go north into Allentown,  either option doesn't look good for Republicans.

PA-6 probably would be lean R in a fair map in 2020, but the trend would be toward the Democrats most likely,  unless the map goes from Chester to northern Montgomery into Allentown.