Pennsylvania redistricting in 2020 (split from GA-6 topic)

[Virginiá]

For starters, we don't have to just ignore the issue. Democrats can work to make it law that there is a non-partisan board, or whatever other acceptable un-political group/computer program/something else, that draws the lines for the districts.

At least in states where Democrats have the means, they might do better just to force Republicans to work with them to pass amendments to the state constitutions placing strict regulations on redistricting, and having them campaign for the amendment during the election, that way they are on record in case they try to go back on it later. For instance, in Pennsylvania, Democrats are poised to control legislative redistricting this time around. Republicans can either get on board, or feel the wrath of a savage gerrymander for at least 10 years. That is the better option, imo. I'd rather not continue this tit-for-tat scheming every 10 years (or less even)

But I can certainly sympathize with Griff's sentiment. Based on the past 8 years, it's become clear to me that Republican lawmakers don't really care about fair elections if they think they might lose a little bit of power, so they will screw over Democrats the first chance they get, and push the law as far as it will go to do it. It's hard to make the right moves in an environment like that.

** edit: split from GA-6 special election thread

[Virginiá]

I am surprised that you think the Dems will control redistricting in PA in 2022. How did you arrive at that expectation?

https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Pennsylvania

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I would presume Democrats could, and will, just refuse to seat a chair. At which point, the heavily Democratic Supreme Court puts in someone who would probably be more likely to go with Democrats on their plan. In fact, the state supreme court could get even more Democratic this year, where 1 seat is up and another 2 (1 D, 1 R) for a retention vote. The seat up is a Republican, so her defeat could leave only 1 Republican to 6 Democratic judges.

[Virginiá]

IC. Thanks. In a fair map, the Dems might gain only one seat, PA-7, while the Pubs drop two seats. But if it is a Dem gerrymander, particularly a vicious one, the Dems could pick up another 3 seats over that, wiping out the Philly area Pubs, and creating some snake that picks up Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Reading, with a couple of prongs into Chester and Montco, to grab some Dems that are within reach there.

FTR, this advantage is only for legislative redistricting. The legislature has full control over the Congressional map, subject to gubernatorial veto of course. If I had to guess, I'd say a modestly pro-Dem gerrymander for legislative maps and a neutral Congressional map is likely. That is, unless Republicans suddenly realize how wonderful fair maps are, and try to push gerrymandering reform before 2020.

What would a Democratic legislative gerrymander for the state Senate/House maps look like? Could Democrats get themselves a majority, or at least maps where they frequently have good opportunities to get one?

[Virginiá]

The PA discussion is interesting, but how about moving it to its own thread?  It has nothing to do with the GA-6 election.

Done. Sorry for derailing the thread