Pennsylvania redistricting in 2020 (split from GA-6 topic)

[Torie]

For starters, we don't have to just ignore the issue. Democrats can work to make it law that there is a non-partisan board, or whatever other acceptable un-political group/computer program/something else, that draws the lines for the districts.

At least in states where Democrats have the means, they might do better just to force Republicans to work with them to pass amendments to the state constitutions placing strict regulations on redistricting, and having them campaign for the amendment during the election, that way they are on record in case they try to go back on it later. For instance, in Pennsylvania, Democrats are poised to control legislative redistricting this time around. Republicans can either get on board, or feel the wrath of a savage gerrymander for at least 10 years. That is the better option, imo. I'd rather not continue this tit-for-tat scheming every 10 years (or less even)

But I can certainly sympathize with Griff's sentiment. Based on the past 8 years, it's become clear to me that Republican lawmakers don't really care about fair elections if they think they might lose a little bit of power, so they will screw over Democrats the first chance they get, and push the law as far as it will go to do it. It's hard to make the right moves in an environment like that.

I am surprised that you think the Dems will control redistricting in PA in 2022. How did you arrive at that expectation?

[Torie]

IC. Thanks. In a fair map, the Dems might gain only one seat, PA-7, while the Pubs drop two seats. But if it is a Dem gerrymander, particularly a vicious one, the Dems could pick up another 3 seats over that, wiping out the Philly area Pubs, and creating some snake that picks up Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Reading, with a couple of prongs into Chester and Montco, to grab some Dems that are within reach there.

[Torie]

IC. Thanks. In a fair map, the Dems might gain only one seat, PA-7, while the Pubs drop two seats. But if it is a Dem gerrymander, particularly a vicious one, the Dems could pick up another 3 seats over that, wiping out the Philly area Pubs, and creating some snake that picks up Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Reading, with a couple of prongs into Chester and Montco, to grab some Dems that are within reach there.

Wouldn't Dems also pick up PA-06?  Without that district going out into Lebanon county, and probably having to take in all of Reading, it becomes very tough for any Republican given the trends in Chester and Montgomery.

And then there's PA-08, where Republicans would no longer get to hand pick which parts of Montgomery go into that district.

The answer is no, about PA-06 as the maps play out. Northern Chester plus Berks equals lean Pub. What portion PA-08 gets along the Montco border is chump change. It makes very little difference. If Abington in Montco were along the border it would, but it isn't. Ditto if PA-08 grabs a couple of wards in Philly. In my map using population projections for 2020, PA-08 took the excess population in Montco (a couple of towns), so another CD filled the balance and no more, and one or two wards in Philly. It changed the PVI by about 0.5%. But in a Dem gerrymander, it would be curtains for the GOP in PA-08.

[Torie]

IC. Thanks. In a fair map, the Dems might gain only one seat, PA-7, while the Pubs drop two seats. But if it is a Dem gerrymander, particularly a vicious one, the Dems could pick up another 3 seats over that, wiping out the Philly area Pubs, and creating some snake that picks up Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Reading, with a couple of prongs into Chester and Montco, to grab some Dems that are within reach there.

Wouldn't Dems also pick up PA-06?  Without that district going out into Lebanon county, and probably having to take in all of Reading, it becomes very tough for any Republican given the trends in Chester and Montgomery.

And then there's PA-08, where Republicans would no longer get to hand pick which parts of Montgomery go into that district.

The answer is no, about PA-06 as the maps play out. Northern Chester plus Berks equals lean Pub. What portion PA-08 gets along the Montco border is chump change. It makes very little difference. If Abington in Montco were along the border it would, but it isn't. Ditto if PA-08 grabs a couple of wards in Philly. In my map using population projections for 2020, PA-08 took the excess population in Montco (a couple of towns), so another CD filled the balance and no more, and one or two wards in Philly. It changed the PVI by about 0.5%. But in a Dem gerrymander, it would be curtains for the GOP in PA-08.

Are you saying with 17 districts in 2020 what PA-8 gets from Montgomery is chump change?   After PA loses a district PA-8 will need almost 130k people from either Montgomery or Philly since each district is likely to be 755k each (or something like that), and Bucks is hardly growing and only has 626k currently.  

I don't know how much PA-8 gets from Montgomery now, but it certainly isn't 130k.   That's bound to change the district quite a bit depending on where the new population is drawn from.    It's either go west to Philly/Mont or go north into Allentown,  either option doesn't look good for Republicans.

PA-6 probably would be lean R in a fair map in 2020, but the trend would be toward the Democrats most likely,  unless the map goes from Chester to northern Montgomery into Allentown.

Here is a map I drew a few months ago, based on the census population projections published last year. About half of what Bucks needs is obtained from Montco, and half from Philly. The CD as drawn is about 6/10% more Dem than the existing CD per the 2008 election numbers. Granted in 2016, the portion of Montco in the CD trended to Trump, while the portion in my CD trended to Clinton, so the gap might widen, unless the trend was to Trump in the two Philly wards included in the CD.