Pennsylvania redistricting in 2020 (split from GA-6 topic)

[Mr.Phips]

IC. Thanks. In a fair map, the Dems might gain only one seat, PA-7, while the Pubs drop two seats. But if it is a Dem gerrymander, particularly a vicious one, the Dems could pick up another 3 seats over that, wiping out the Philly area Pubs, and creating some snake that picks up Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Reading, with a couple of prongs into Chester and Montco, to grab some Dems that are within reach there.

Wouldn't Dems also pick up PA-06?  Without that district going out into Lebanon county, and probably having to take in all of Reading, it becomes very tough for any Republican given the trends in Chester and Montgomery.

And then there's PA-08, where Republicans would no longer get to hand pick which parts of Montgomery go into that district.

[Mr.Phips]

IC. Thanks. In a fair map, the Dems might gain only one seat, PA-7, while the Pubs drop two seats. But if it is a Dem gerrymander, particularly a vicious one, the Dems could pick up another 3 seats over that, wiping out the Philly area Pubs, and creating some snake that picks up Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Reading, with a couple of prongs into Chester and Montco, to grab some Dems that are within reach there.

Wouldn't Dems also pick up PA-06?  Without that district going out into Lebanon county, and probably having to take in all of Reading, it becomes very tough for any Republican given the trends in Chester and Montgomery.

And then there's PA-08, where Republicans would no longer get to hand pick which parts of Montgomery go into that district.

The answer is no, about PA-06 as the maps play out. Northern Chester plus Berks equals lean Pub. What portion PA-08 gets along the Montco border is chump change. It makes very little difference. If Abington in Montco were along the border it would, but it isn't. Ditto if PA-08 grabs a couple of wards in Philly. In my map using population projections for 2020, PA-08 took the excess population in Montco (a couple of towns), so another CD filled the balance and no more, and one or two wards in Philly. It changed the PVI by about 0.5%. But in a Dem gerrymander, it would be curtains for the GOP in PA-08.

Actually, what part of Montco that is attached to Bucks in PA-08 does make a difference in such a close district.  Actually, I can think of three elections where it made the difference. It's the difference between the district being a Trump or Hillary district in 2016, the difference between it being a Romney or Obama district in 2012, and most important of all, it made the difference in electing Patrick Murphy in 2006.  Had the district included the piece of northern Montco rather than central Montco, Patrick Murphy would not have been elected in 2006.