Pennsylvania redistricting in 2020 (split from GA-6 topic)

[Badger]

To be clear, assuming that Wolf is reelected (which must have some risk), this is what we're looking at in PA:

• Legislative redistricting: drawn by a commission that may favor Democrats
• Congressional redistricting: drawn by incumbent GOP legislature with Democratic governor, or by a court if they can't agree

But....

I am surprised that you think the Dems will control redistricting in PA in 2022. How did you arrive at that expectation?

https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Pennsylvania

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I would presume Democrats could, and will, just refuse to seat a chair. At which point, the heavily Democratic Supreme Court puts in someone who would probably be more likely to go with Democrats on their plan. In fact, the state supreme court could get even more Democratic this year, where 1 seat is up and another 2 (1 D, 1 R) for a retention vote. The seat up is a Republican, so her defeat could leave only 1 Republican to 6 Democratic judges.

Assuming Virgina's correct, which I have no reason to doubt--ever--where does the governor come into play for redistricting wars? [/list]

[Badger]

IC. Thanks. In a fair map, the Dems might gain only one seat, PA-7, while the Pubs drop two seats. But if it is a Dem gerrymander, particularly a vicious one, the Dems could pick up another 3 seats over that, wiping out the Philly area Pubs, and creating some snake that picks up Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Reading, with a couple of prongs into Chester and Montco, to grab some Dems that are within reach there.

Wouldn't Dems also pick up PA-06?  Without that district going out into Lebanon county, and probably having to take in all of Reading, it becomes very tough for any Republican given the trends in Chester and Montgomery.

And then there's PA-08, where Republicans would no longer get to hand pick which parts of Montgomery go into that district.

The answer is no, about PA-06 as the maps play out. Northern Chester plus Berks equals lean Pub. What portion PA-08 gets along the Montco border is chump change. It makes very little difference. If Abington in Montco were along the border it would, but it isn't. Ditto if PA-08 grabs a couple of wards in Philly. In my map using population projections for 2020, PA-08 took the excess population in Montco (a couple of towns), so another CD filled the balance and no more, and one or two wards in Philly. It changed the PVI by about 0.5%. But in a Dem gerrymander, it would be curtains for the GOP in PA-08.

Do you think there's a realistic chance Democrats could try splitting Pittsburgh and it's inner core suburbs (as opposed to outer-rim Allegheny County) to try making two Democratic leaning seats? If the district lines generally followed the rivers to include Democratic precincts going up to Aliquippa, etc. If one assumes voters will continue voting as they did in 2016 that could be chancy, but....

I suppose it depends on whether Mike Doyle is willing to go along with it and/or retire.