The real question is, assuming he wins Nevada, is how much he loses South Carolina by and if he campaigns heavily there.
This. If he wins the first three and doesn't get absolutely blown out in SC, he has a good shot at the nomination. Adding Massachusetts to the Bernie column on Super Tuesday would help him with (hopefully) smaller losses in the south. Illinois and Missouri are also must-wins later in March. Ohio should be within 5. Keeping Arizona close would help demoralize Clinton in April. Winning Connecticut and Kentucky is vital in April. In June, Sanders should be looking at wins in South Dakota, New Mexico, and maybe California. This assumes that Clinton stays in until the end. It doesn't necessarily factor in a bandwagon effect for Sanders, which may or may not occur. Flipping states may not win that many delegates in itself, but it looks good to voters and more delegates could be won because of that.
