Why has North Carolina and Virginia trended Democrat 4 times in a row now?

[Technocracy Timmy]

Since 2004, there have been four states which have trended Democrat consecutively 4 times: California, Washington, Virginia, and North Carolina.

Why have these two states moved more and more to the Democrats? Virginia I can understand with NOVA, but NC is a little bit trickier.

[Matty]

North Carolina barely trended blue in 2016. I think it should be treated differently than virginia.

[Tekken_Guy]

Didn't Romney flip NC in 2012?

[TDAS04]

Didn't Romney flip NC in 2012?

Yes, but it still trended Democratic.  

North Carolina is still different from Virginia, though.  

[Technocracy Timmy]

North Carolina barely trended blue in 2016. I think it should be treated differently than virginia.

Yes but only 16 states total trended Dem in 2016 so that's still a pretty significant category for NC to be in. Particularly given that it's trended in one Party's direction 4 times now.

Edit: if VA and NC are different, then what's causing them both to move towards the Democrats? I understand VA has the northern part of their state getting an influx of federal workers but beyond that I'm confused on what's causing the Dem trend in NC.

[TDAS04]

North Carolina barely trended blue in 2016. I think it should be treated differently than virginia.

Yes but only 16 states total trended Dem in 2016 so that's still a pretty significant category for NC to be in. Particularly given that it's trended in one Party's direction 4 times now.

Edit: if VA and NC are different, then what's causing them both to move towards the Democrats? I understand VA has the northern part of their state getting an influx of federal workers but beyond that I'm confused on what's causing the Dem trend in NC.

The Research Triangle is growing, and it's one of the most culturally liberal areas of the South. 

[Nyvin]

The entire southern east coast from Atlanta up to DC seems to be developing into a second BosWash area.   The Metros are among the fastest growing in the country and it's increasingly developing a "digital economy".   

South Carolina doesn't have any large metro to drive this change so it's going slower than the other three.

This is distinct from Florida where the main drivers to change are Latino immigration and Retiree migration. 

[100% pro-life no matter what]

North Carolina's "trend" would be statistically insignificant in 2016, and it seems to have stabilized as a roughly R+3 state.  Virginia is a completely different animal, but could see a slight Republican trend when Trump is off the ballot.

[JA]

North Carolina barely trended blue in 2016. I think it should be treated differently than virginia.

Yes but only 16 states total trended Dem in 2016 so that's still a pretty significant category for NC to be in. Particularly given that it's trended in one Party's direction 4 times now.

Edit: if VA and NC are different, then what's causing them both to move towards the Democrats? I understand VA has the northern part of their state getting an influx of federal workers but beyond that I'm confused on what's causing the Dem trend in NC.

The Research Triangle is growing, and it's one of the most culturally liberal areas of the South. 

This, essentially. North Carolina's two major metros are doing are doing a very good job of attracting and retaining investment, millennials, and highly educated and skilled workers. Raleigh-Durham (Research Triangle) has top ranked universities, cities, and suburbs, while remaining considerably more affordable than other "coastal" areas. Charlotte is a leading center for banking and finance, thus it also attract numerous educated and skilled workers. They are both also among the fastest growing metros in the country. Consequently, North Carolina is trending blue (atlas red).

Virginia has moved that way at a faster pace since the NOVA suburbs are exceptionally attractive, there are tons of government workers who live there, the Washington metro is growing rapidly and attracting highly educated workers, and many of those voters were once upper-middle-class Republicans, who have switched over to the Democratic Party.

California is obvious, since its Hispanic population is growing rapidly, it attracts countless young and skilled workers (although that may be slowing due to COL), and many of the upper-middle-class switched to the Democrats similar to what happened in NOVA (see: Orange County). Washington is yet another similar case; Seattle is a rapidly growing hub attracting young, educated workers and this metro dominates the state.

All the metros attracting young, highly educated workers are trending Democratic at consistent and high rates. These places are spread throughout the country, such as Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Denver, Boulder, Fort Collins, Dallas, Austin, Houston, Des Moines, Minneapolis, Madison, Ann Arbor, Grand Rapids, Columbus, Atlanta, Orlando, Charleston, Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, Washington, Philadelphia, New York, and Boston. As young people get priced out of the increasingly expensive coastal metros and more cities make the necessary investments to attract young workers, expect these trends to change as other cities replace some of those on that list.

Based on my extensive research into these trends that are just beginning (since I have been searching for where to apply when I graduate college this year), expect Fargo, Sioux Falls, Omaha, Lincoln, Kansas City, St. Louis, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Lexington, Nashville, Little Rock, Fayetteville (AR), Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Baton Rouge, Columbia, Baltimore, Boise, Greenville, and Knoxville to become the next hot spots. As a result, all of those states could begin to see demographic and political shifts that will manifest over time, similar to what has happened so far in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.

[Del Tachi]

Will be interesting to see if Charlotte and Raleigh/Research Triangle area start to diverge over the next few election cycles.

As pointed out by an earlier poster, Charlotte is a big banking city so most of the young people moving there are recent economics/finance graduates who historically skew more conservative than Millennials as a whole.  Meanwhile, RDU is a big research center so the younger people moving there tend to be engineers/scientists.  Could make for an interesting dynamic in NC in a couple years.

[SingingAnalyst]

North Carolina barely trended blue in 2016. I think it should be treated differently than virginia.

Yes but only 16 states total trended Dem in 2016 so that's still a pretty significant category for NC to be in. Particularly given that it's trended in one Party's direction 4 times now.

Edit: if VA and NC are different, then what's causing them both to move towards the Democrats? I understand VA has the northern part of their state getting an influx of federal workers but beyond that I'm confused on what's causing the Dem trend in NC.

The Research Triangle is growing, and it's one of the most culturally liberal areas of the South. 

This, and most of the conservatives who supported Jesse Helms (R; 1921-2008) four times for Senate are dead or dying. In the 1990 Senate race, there was a sharp age gradient, with younger voters voting for Harvey Gantt (D) and most older ones for Helms. This was a reversal of most age gradients across the country that year.

[Vern]

You guys are forgetting about the Triad, which is also an area that in 2000 went for Bush, but has quickly become a very liberal area.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The realignment among Latinos and Millineals of what were safe red states are now trending Democratic.  And in the 1990's Clinton punished the tobacco farmers with that lawsuit on smoking which voted for Bob Dole.

NC will trend further blue in 2020, when Jason Kander is on the ballot along with Booker and Tillis is a very vulnerable incumbant which leans Democratic along with Gardner and ME at the moment in 2020.

[RINO Tom]

Because they're educated, and there are things there to do.  Before, they were not educated, and there weren't things there to do.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Because they're educated, and there are things there to do.  Before, they were not educated, and there weren't things there to do.

College educated whites are simply more refined. Minnesota and New Hampshire for example are on their way toward becoming solid D since they're so college educated

[Technocracy Timmy]

Then again, if the parties switch platforms AGAIN and the Democrats become the populist party, maybe VA and NC will trend R again. But for now, South = TREND D and North = TREND R!

If the Democrats usurp the mantel of being the hawkish national security Party (which is quite likely to happen for a myriad of reasons - Bush, Obama, and Trump all being responsible in some part) then wouldn't Virginia and parts of the border South stay Democrat even if the Party became more populist?

[JA]

Will be interesting to see if Charlotte and Raleigh/Research Triangle area start to diverge over the next few election cycles.

As pointed out by an earlier poster, Charlotte is a big banking city so most of the young people moving there are recent economics/finance graduates who historically skew more conservative than Millennials as a whole.  Meanwhile, RDU is a big research center so the younger people moving there tend to be engineers/scientists.  Could make for an interesting dynamic in NC in a couple years.

This is a good point. Different sectors of the economy tend to have different political leanings. Banking and finance is certainly the more conservative of these professional fields; same with energy production. In contrast, technology, public and non-profit, and education/research fields tend to be considerably more liberal. I am not quite sure how those in the healthcare sector vote, but I would assume they're largely Democratic.

Interestingly, your theory has some existing evidence to support it. I researched the 2012 and 2016 election results and trends for major metros, and Charlotte did not trend Democratic at nearly the pace Raleigh-Durham did. Excluding third parties, these were the results...

2012: Charlotte (47.7% D), Raleigh (52.4% D), Durham (69.8% D)
2016: Charlotte (47.6% D), Raleigh (55.8% D), Durham (73.5% D)
Trend: Charlotte (0.8% D), Raleigh (4.3% D), Durham (4.6% D)

[President Johnson]

Didn't Obama slightly underperform in California in 2012 compared to 2008?

[Adam Griffin]

Didn't Obama slightly underperform in California in 2012 compared to 2008?

Yes

2012: 60.16-37.07 (D+23.09)
2008: 60.92-36.90 (D+24.02)

But trend is (in this case) a state's swing compared to the national swing. So CA swung to the GOP by 0.93 points, but the nation swung to the GOP by 3.4 points - for a trend of 2.47 points to the Dems in CA.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Both states are becoming more urbanized and more educated, though Virginia is becoming more Democratic faster because of the high density of Federal workers in NoVa. North Carolina is a bit more like Florida in that its population trends are somewhat canceling each other out, though the Dem trend is slightly faster.

[Nyvin]

Didn't Obama slightly underperform in California in 2012 compared to 2008?

I think he underperformed in all 4 of them.  They all still trended Dem though.

[RINO Tom]

Both states are becoming more urbanized and more educated, though Virginia is becoming more Democratic faster because of the high density of Federal workers in NoVa. North Carolina is a bit more like Florida in that it's population trends are somewhat canceling each other out, though the Dem trend is slightly faster.

Educated red avatar using the wrong "its"?!  It can't be.

[Smash255]

Both states have become more diverse, both states have also have fast growing well educated metro areas.  North Carolina's trend in 2016 was only marginal, in part due to GOP trends in more rural parts of the state.  Virginia experienced this as well, but the pure size of its metro population more than outweighed it.

[Nyvin]

...also in regard to Virginia vs North Carolina,  don't forget the Republicans were successful in implementing their voter suppression law in North Carolina for 2016.

[Virginiá]

...also in regard to Virginia vs North Carolina,  don't forget the Republicans were successful in implementing their voter suppression law in North Carolina for 2016.

To be fair, most of the noteworthy restrictions from the 2013 bill were struck down. The biggest factor then became the early voting changes, which Republicans abused to cut locations/hours in many areas with large African American populations. That was only for the first week, though. The rest of early voting saw relatively good plans. Other than that, I suppose the abolishment of straight ticket voting might have hurt some downballot offices. I do often wonder what turnout would have been like had that law not been mostly gutted by the court system.