Why has North Carolina and Virginia trended Democrat 4 times in a row now?
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  Why has North Carolina and Virginia trended Democrat 4 times in a row now?
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Author Topic: Why has North Carolina and Virginia trended Democrat 4 times in a row now?  (Read 3327 times)
Vern
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« Reply #25 on: June 04, 2017, 12:23:20 PM »

...also in regard to Virginia vs North Carolina,  don't forget the Republicans were successful in implementing their voter suppression law in North Carolina for 2016.

To be fair, most of the noteworthy restrictions from the 2013 bill were struck down. The biggest factor then became the early voting changes, which Republicans abused to cut locations/hours in many areas with large African American populations. That was only for the first week, though. The rest of early voting saw relatively good plans. Other than that, I suppose the abolishment of straight ticket voting might have hurt some downballot offices. I do often wonder what turnout would have been like had that law not been mostly gutted by the court system.

You also have to remember in 2016 a lot of the eastern NC areas(where there is a high black population) were hit hard by Hurricane Matthew a few weeks before the elections.
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hopper
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« Reply #26 on: June 04, 2017, 01:41:29 PM »

it was really by age that decided Black Turnout in NC according to a graph I saw from Nate Silver's website once. Blacks under 45 yes turnout went down but age 45 and up Black Turnout was nearly the same as 2012.

Just from a recent historical standpoint Black% make-up of NC's Presidential Electorate:

2004: 26%(source NYT exit poll from 2012.)
2008: 23%(NYT exit poll 2012)
2012: 23%(NYT exit poll 2012)
2016: 20% (CNN exit poll 2016)

Another interesting fact is the Black overall make-up of NC's population has stayed stable at 22% since the 1970 Census.

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Young Conservative
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« Reply #27 on: July 05, 2017, 10:17:40 PM »

North Carolina has stabilized. I do not see it becoming Virginia.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #28 on: July 08, 2017, 05:36:49 PM »

Can I ask how you are determining if a state trends one way or another? From 2012 to 2016, the Democrats' share of the vote dropped by 2.2% and the Republican margin of victory increased by 1.6% in North Carolina. I don't see how that is "trending Democratic", so I'm assuming you are measuring this in some other way.
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hopper
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« Reply #29 on: July 08, 2017, 05:44:20 PM »

NC still trended Dem in 2016 but very very lightly.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #30 on: July 08, 2017, 05:52:44 PM »

Can I ask how you are determining if a state trends one way or another? From 2012 to 2016, the Democrats' share of the vote dropped by 2.2% and the Republican margin of victory increased by 1.6% in North Carolina. I don't see how that is "trending Democratic", so I'm assuming you are measuring this in some other way.

Trends factor in the national swing with how the individual states shifted.

So from 2012-2016 the national popular vote went from Obama +3.86 to Clinton +2.06. The nation as a whole swung 1.8 points Republican.

North Carolina went from Romney +3.66 to Trump+2.04. North Carolina swung only 1.62 points more Republican.

Hence why North Carolina trended Democrat. The state may have swung Republican from 2012-2016, but not to the extent the entire nation did.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #31 on: July 08, 2017, 05:57:54 PM »

Can I ask how you are determining if a state trends one way or another? From 2012 to 2016, the Democrats' share of the vote dropped by 2.2% and the Republican margin of victory increased by 1.6% in North Carolina. I don't see how that is "trending Democratic", so I'm assuming you are measuring this in some other way.

Trends factor in the national swing with how the individual states shifted.

So from 2012-2016 the national popular vote went from Obama +3.86 to Clinton +2.06. The nation as a whole swung 1.8 points Republican.

North Carolina went from Romney +3.66 to Trump+2.04. North Carolina swung only 1.62 points more Republican.

Hence why North Carolina trended Democrat. The state may have swung Republican from 2012-2016, but not to the extent the entire nation did.

Ah, yes, I should've know, I've seen this methodology before. Thank you.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #32 on: July 08, 2017, 06:00:28 PM »

Now worries Tongue
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Sumner 1868
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« Reply #33 on: July 08, 2017, 06:19:15 PM »

It's still lean Republican.
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super6646
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« Reply #34 on: July 17, 2017, 04:53:57 PM »

But the trend was so insignificant, it almost doesn't matter. NC in my opinion is just too much out of reach for democrats. Obama BARELY won in 2008, and the state has slowly started snapping back to the GOP. While it will never be as republican as it was in 2004, I think it is a GOP leaning state (just like Virginia is a Democrat leaning state).
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #35 on: July 18, 2017, 02:07:56 PM »

But the trend was so insignificant, it almost doesn't matter. NC in my opinion is just too much out of reach for democrats. Obama BARELY won in 2008, and the state has slowly started snapping back to the GOP. While it will never be as republican as it was in 2004, I think it is a GOP leaning state (just like Virginia is a Democrat leaning state).

Obama won Indiana by a greater margin than NC, and in 2012 he did almost nothing there and still barely lost it.

Also, hard to forget about the fire-bombing that did no favors, and Hurricane Matthew did a number on Election Day turnout.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #36 on: July 18, 2017, 02:23:36 PM »

But the trend was so insignificant, it almost doesn't matter. NC in my opinion is just too much out of reach for democrats. Obama BARELY won in 2008, and the state has slowly started snapping back to the GOP. While it will never be as republican as it was in 2004, I think it is a GOP leaning state (just like Virginia is a Democrat leaning state).

It's not really snapping back. Obama did very well in 2008, and thus he did better in North Carolina. He did worse in 2012, so he did worse in NC. Ditto for Clinton. Otherwise, nothing has really changed. Even though the state's leftwards shift has stalled out, the overall movement of the state is still not looking favorable to Republicans long-term. Not unless something changes about the preferences of the growing parts of the electorate.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #37 on: July 19, 2017, 04:07:15 PM »

- Fast growing metros
- Diversifying
- Liberal millennials reaching voting age
- Older conservatives dying
- Migration from northern states
- Growing education levels
- Big universities
- HB2
- People being turned off by Trump
- Bernie moving people leftward
- Affluent and educated whites flipping R to D
- Women moving leftward

It's the same trend you see in all the sun belt states, i.e. GA, AZ, CA, CO, TX.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #38 on: July 20, 2017, 12:56:34 PM »

Unless I'm calculating something incorrectly, didn't NC trend Republican from 2012 to 2016? Using NYT results, Obama won nationally by 2.8 and lost NC by 2.2 in 2012 (R+5.0). Clinton won nationally by 2.1 and lost NC by 3.6 (R+5.7).

Is it just a discrepancy between the source of results?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #39 on: July 20, 2017, 01:02:23 PM »

Unless I'm calculating something incorrectly, didn't NC trend Republican from 2012 to 2016? Using NYT results, Obama won nationally by 2.8 and lost NC by 2.2 in 2012 (R+5.0). Clinton won nationally by 2.1 and lost NC by 3.6 (R+5.7).

Is it just a discrepancy between the source of results?

You were already talking about this just 6 or 7 posts ago lol. TT explained it, unless you're rethinking it?
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #40 on: July 20, 2017, 01:06:02 PM »

Unless I'm calculating something incorrectly, didn't NC trend Republican from 2012 to 2016? Using NYT results, Obama won nationally by 2.8 and lost NC by 2.2 in 2012 (R+5.0). Clinton won nationally by 2.1 and lost NC by 3.6 (R+5.7).

Is it just a discrepancy between the source of results?

You were already talking about this just 6 or 7 posts ago lol. TT explained it, unless you're rethinking it?

No, I understand the methodology (which is what I was asking for clarification on before). However, the numbers he had used are significantly different from NYT 2012 results. Apparently NYT shows Obama with a lead ~1% smaller than most other sources, which is what was now confusing me, because if you use NYT numbers, NC did not trend Democratic from '12 to '16.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #41 on: July 20, 2017, 01:15:06 PM »

No, I understand the methodology (which is what I was asking for clarification on before). However, the numbers he had used are significantly different from NYT 2012 results. Apparently NYT shows Obama with a lead ~1% smaller than most other sources, which is what was now confusing me, because if you use NYT numbers, NC did not trend Democratic from '12 to '16.

Oh I see, fair enough. Why not use the FEC's and NC SBOE's official results?

http://er.ncsbe.gov/

+

https://transition.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2016/2016presgeresults.pdf
https://transition.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2012/2012presgeresults.pdf
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GGSETTER
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« Reply #42 on: July 20, 2017, 02:47:15 PM »

The entire southern east coast from Atlanta up to DC seems to be developing into a second BosWash area.   The Metros are among the fastest growing in the country and it's increasingly developing a "digital economy".   

South Carolina doesn't have any large metro to drive this change so it's going slower than the other three.

This is distinct from Florida where the main drivers to change are Latino immigration and Retiree migration. 


Except Virginia and Georgia were the only 2 Southern States that didn't get Redder in 2016. Every other state kim Florida and North Carolina got more Red so......
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GGSETTER
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« Reply #43 on: July 20, 2017, 04:22:44 PM »

NC still trended Dem in 2016 but very very lightly.

Are you sure? I don't believe it did.
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cvparty
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« Reply #44 on: July 20, 2017, 04:31:52 PM »

NC still trended Dem in 2016 but very very lightly.

Are you sure? I don't believe it did.
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ view with the "trend" tab
and here are the calculations:
2012: NC +2.04%, US -3.86%, lean +5.90%)
2016: NC +3.66%, US -2.09%, lean +5.75%)
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cvparty
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« Reply #45 on: July 20, 2017, 04:41:36 PM »

Unless I'm calculating something incorrectly, didn't NC trend Republican from 2012 to 2016? Using NYT results, Obama won nationally by 2.8 and lost NC by 2.2 in 2012 (R+5.0). Clinton won nationally by 2.1 and lost NC by 3.6 (R+5.7).

Is it just a discrepancy between the source of results?
does the New York Times really have Obama's margin as 2.8%? it's more like 3.8%
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #46 on: July 20, 2017, 07:04:05 PM »

Unless I'm calculating something incorrectly, didn't NC trend Republican from 2012 to 2016? Using NYT results, Obama won nationally by 2.8 and lost NC by 2.2 in 2012 (R+5.0). Clinton won nationally by 2.1 and lost NC by 3.6 (R+5.7).

Is it just a discrepancy between the source of results?
does the New York Times really have Obama's margin as 2.8%? it's more like 3.8%

Yes. NYT has Obama with ~62 million votes and Romney with ~59 million, while virtually every other source has Obama with ~65 million and Romney with ~60 million.
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GGSETTER
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« Reply #47 on: July 20, 2017, 07:14:05 PM »

Both states are becoming more urbanized and more educated, though Virginia is becoming more Democratic faster because of the high density of Federal workers in NoVa. North Carolina is a bit more like Florida in that its population trends are somewhat canceling each other out, though the Dem trend is slightly faster.

Florida is becoming more and more Republican and has been doing so for years.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #48 on: July 20, 2017, 07:55:29 PM »

Florida is becoming more and more Republican and has been doing so for years.

Florida's trends are a lot less conclusive than some people may think. The exploding Hispanic population (which includes a changing Cuban electorate that is also shrinking as a share of Hispanics) and the growth of Millennials, both heavily Democratic groups is somewhat counterbalanced by a heavily Republican senior population that receives a constant influx of older people. Boomers will keep the older age groups leaning Republican for years yet but once they are gone, it's unlikely Republicans can rely on old people anymore as reliable votes.

It is not clear yet what the Democratic share of the white vote in FL will be in the future, either. 32% is pretty low for a Democrat in FL, so based on historical patterns its more likely to stabilize somewhere higher, but you never know. What is known is that a 5% shift of whites to the Republican still only barely allowed them to carry the state.

Florida will remain close for the near future, but Republican efforts to lock it down will depend on making big inroads with minorities and driving up their white share to Georgia-like levels, which is probably not going to happen.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #49 on: July 20, 2017, 09:00:24 PM »

Both states are becoming more urbanized and more educated, though Virginia is becoming more Democratic faster because of the high density of Federal workers in NoVa. North Carolina is a bit more like Florida in that its population trends are somewhat canceling each other out, though the Dem trend is slightly faster.

Florida is becoming more and more Republican and has been doing so for years.

Obama won Florida twice...and from 2012 to 2016 Florida's PVI went from R+3 to R+2.   

I'm not saying it's trending Dem,  but the political future of Florida is impossible to predict.
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