Why has North Carolina and Virginia trended Democrat 4 times in a row now?

[Technocracy Timmy]

Since 2004, there have been four states which have trended Democrat consecutively 4 times: California, Washington, Virginia, and North Carolina.

Why have these two states moved more and more to the Democrats? Virginia I can understand with NOVA, but NC is a little bit trickier.

[Technocracy Timmy]

North Carolina barely trended blue in 2016. I think it should be treated differently than virginia.

Yes but only 16 states total trended Dem in 2016 so that's still a pretty significant category for NC to be in. Particularly given that it's trended in one Party's direction 4 times now.

Edit: if VA and NC are different, then what's causing them both to move towards the Democrats? I understand VA has the northern part of their state getting an influx of federal workers but beyond that I'm confused on what's causing the Dem trend in NC.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Because they're educated, and there are things there to do.  Before, they were not educated, and there weren't things there to do.

College educated whites are simply more refined. Minnesota and New Hampshire for example are on their way toward becoming solid D since they're so college educated

[Technocracy Timmy]

Then again, if the parties switch platforms AGAIN and the Democrats become the populist party, maybe VA and NC will trend R again. But for now, South = TREND D and North = TREND R!

If the Democrats usurp the mantel of being the hawkish national security Party (which is quite likely to happen for a myriad of reasons - Bush, Obama, and Trump all being responsible in some part) then wouldn't Virginia and parts of the border South stay Democrat even if the Party became more populist?

[Technocracy Timmy]

Can I ask how you are determining if a state trends one way or another? From 2012 to 2016, the Democrats' share of the vote dropped by 2.2% and the Republican margin of victory increased by 1.6% in North Carolina. I don't see how that is "trending Democratic", so I'm assuming you are measuring this in some other way.

Trends factor in the national swing with how the individual states shifted.

So from 2012-2016 the national popular vote went from Obama +3.86 to Clinton +2.06. The nation as a whole swung 1.8 points Republican.

North Carolina went from Romney +3.66 to Trump+2.04. North Carolina swung only 1.62 points more Republican.

Hence why North Carolina trended Democrat. The state may have swung Republican from 2012-2016, but not to the extent the entire nation did.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Now worries