Population Growth Patterns in Metro Areas, 2000-16
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 01:10:31 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Population Growth Patterns in Metro Areas, 2000-16
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5
Author Topic: Population Growth Patterns in Metro Areas, 2000-16  (Read 11165 times)
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 29, 2017, 11:30:47 PM »
« edited: July 05, 2017, 07:57:13 PM by cinyc »

Now that I have the population estimate data for 2000-16 in a readable format, I can make gifs of the growth patterns in metro areas.  First, the greater NYC Metro Area:



Note how there was an exodus from the Inner suburbs until around 2008, followed by an exodus from the exurbs in the 2010s.

What metro should I make next?

Edited to add: Fixed projection.

Links to other metro maps:
2    Los Angeles
3    Chicago
4    Dallas-Fort Worth
5    Houston
6    Washington, DC
7    Philadelphia
8    Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach
9    Atlanta
10    Boston
11    San Francisco-Oakland
12    Phoenix
13    Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario (For now, see Los Angeles)
14    Detroit
15    Seattle
16    Minneapolis-St. Paul
17    San Diego
18    Tampa-St. Petersburg (See Central Florida)
19    Denver
20    St. Louis
21    Baltimore (See Washington, DC)
22    Charlotte
23    Orlando (See Central Florida)
24    San Antonio
25    Portland, OR
26    Pittsburgh
27    Sacramento
28    Cincinnati
29    Las Vegas
30    Kansas City
31    Austin
32    Cleveland
33    Columbus
34    Indianapolis
35    San Jose (See San Francisco)
36    Nashville
37    Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News
38    Providence
39    Milwaukee (See Southeast Wisconsin)
40    Jacksonville, FL
41    Oklahoma City
42    Memphis
43    Raleigh
44    Louisville/Jefferson County
45    Richmond
46    New Orleans
47    Hartford
48    Salt Lake City
49    Birmingham
50    Buffalo
51    Rochester, NY
52    Grand Rapids, MI
53    Tucson, AZ
--------
55    Tulsa, OK (See Northwest Arkansas/Tulsa)
86    Madison, WI (See Southeast Wisconsin)
97 Durham-Chapel Hill
105    Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO (See Northwest Arkansas/Tulsa)

The top 53 metros have a population greater than 1,000,000.  I'm going to try to map them all, eventually.
Logged
jimrtex
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,828
Marshall Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 30, 2017, 12:40:12 AM »

Now that I have the population estimate data for 2000-16 in a readable format, I can make gifs of the growth patterns in metro areas.  First, the greater NYC Metro Area:



Note how there was an exodus from the Inner suburbs until around 2008, followed by an exodus from the exurbs in the 2010s.

What metro should I make next?

The Nassau-Suffolk line is interesting. Also the Poconos. Is that people families moving out, or adult children moving away, as happened in Nassau in the 70s (there was the huge influx following WWII, and then 15-25 years later all the children were grown. The adults were still around 50-60, so not ready to vacate their homes, and there wasn't yet infill of apartments. The children who formed families had to move out to Suffolk. Those without, could move to NYC, or wherever they ended up for college, or North Carolina, Florida, etc. where they met a mate from somewhere else.

Is there something odd about the projection? It seems a bit stretched east-west.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 30, 2017, 12:57:33 AM »
« Edited: May 30, 2017, 01:06:09 AM by cinyc »

The Nassau-Suffolk line is interesting. Also the Poconos. Is that people families moving out, or adult children moving away, as happened in Nassau in the 70s (there was the huge influx following WWII, and then 15-25 years later all the children were grown. The adults were still around 50-60, so not ready to vacate their homes, and there wasn't yet infill of apartments. The children who formed families had to move out to Suffolk. Those without, could move to NYC, or wherever they ended up for college, or North Carolina, Florida, etc. where they met a mate from somewhere else.

It's a combination of people not moving to the NYC exurbs, like the Poconos, any more, some older Poconos residents moving to the sunbelt, and probably some adult children moving away.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

There might be.  I used the census default projection on QGIS without reprojecting it to Albers Conic or whatever.  It's NAD 83 (EPSG:4269).  But Long Island is really long, which might make it look like it's stretched (plus, my water file leads to more water than there really is being shown, which probably makes Long Island seem longer than it really is.  

What projection should I be using?  Albers makes things conic, so stuff isn't oriented the way you normally see it on a map.
Logged
SoLongAtlas
VirginiaModerate
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,219
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 30, 2017, 07:41:24 AM »

Great stuff. If you could do the DC-NoVA-Metro area next that would be awesome.
Logged
jimrtex
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,828
Marshall Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 30, 2017, 09:16:51 AM »


Is there something odd about the projection? It seems a bit stretched east-west.

There might be.  I used the census default projection on QGIS without reprojecting it to Albers Conic or whatever.  It's NAD 83 (EPSG:4269).  But Long Island is really long, which might make it look like it's stretched (plus, my water file leads to more water than there really is being shown, which probably makes Long Island seem longer than it really is.  

What projection should I be using?  Albers makes things conic, so stuff isn't oriented the way you normally see it on a map.
NAD 83 is Latitude/Longitude so at NYC (roughly 40N), North/South is shortened by cos(40 degrees) or 0.76.

I notice it in the northern border of New Jersey and in diagonally oriented squarish towns, which become more diamond shaped.

There is something called False Mercator which QGIS switches to when display a Google satellite layer. I think this has something to do with the tiling of the Google images. For small areas you don't have to worry about area distortion. If you were interested in comparing the size of different metro areas (Miami v Boston) you might want to switch to more localized coordinate systems.
Logged
Seattle
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 786
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 30, 2017, 12:04:28 PM »

Would love to see the Seattle metro area. Awesome map!

Not a metro area, but western ND would be cool to see.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 30, 2017, 12:06:24 PM »

Great stuff. If you could do the DC-NoVA-Metro area next that would be awesome.

I will, after I fix the NYC Metro gif to a better projection (NAD 83 (HARN): Long Island looks better than what I have). 

Unfortunately, you're going to lose a lot of the granularity south of the Mason-Dixon Line and west of the Mississippi, though, since those states don't have MCDs that census provides data for, and there are no yearly estimates for fictional areas like CDPs, which replace MCDs there.
Logged
jimrtex
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,828
Marshall Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 30, 2017, 12:23:28 PM »

Great stuff. If you could do the DC-NoVA-Metro area next that would be awesome.

I will, after I fix the NYC Metro gif to a better projection (NAD 83 (HARN): Long Island looks better than what I have). 

Unfortunately, you're going to lose a lot of the granularity south of the Mason-Dixon Line and west of the Mississippi, though, since those states don't have MCDs that census provides data for, and there are no yearly estimates for fictional areas like CDPs, which replace MCDs there.

You could conceivably use ACS estimates for census tracts or block groups. You would have to use the five-year estimates, but could use 2011-2015 for 2013; 2010-2014 for 2012, etc.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 30, 2017, 01:13:26 PM »

Great stuff. If you could do the DC-NoVA-Metro area next that would be awesome.

I will, after I fix the NYC Metro gif to a better projection (NAD 83 (HARN): Long Island looks better than what I have). 

Unfortunately, you're going to lose a lot of the granularity south of the Mason-Dixon Line and west of the Mississippi, though, since those states don't have MCDs that census provides data for, and there are no yearly estimates for fictional areas like CDPs, which replace MCDs there.

You could conceivably use ACS estimates for census tracts or block groups. You would have to use the five-year estimates, but could use 2011-2015 for 2013; 2010-2014 for 2012, etc.

That would be a lot more work - and the files are so large that they might crash QGIS and my computer.  I'll look into it, though.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 30, 2017, 02:07:15 PM »

DC Metro:



Yes, the granularity isn't great.  The district itself and Arlington, VA started picking up population in earnest around 2005-06.
Logged
Ban my account ffs!
snowguy716
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,632
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 30, 2017, 03:06:14 PM »

Excellent work Cinyc. 
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 30, 2017, 03:34:25 PM »
« Edited: May 30, 2017, 03:42:11 PM by cinyc »

Metro Seattle:


Again, the granularity isn't so great, but at least it's better than DC.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 30, 2017, 06:25:06 PM »

Chicagoland:

Logged
libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,610
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 30, 2017, 06:34:41 PM »

I'm not surprised at the southern portion of Lake County, Indiana.  The growth in recent years has been insane.
Logged
SoLongAtlas
VirginiaModerate
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,219
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 31, 2017, 08:56:12 AM »

Great work on the DC-NoVA one. It looks like the trend is rapidly declining growth patterns but it doesn't show on 95 lol. Probably more stabilization and migration to others areas, esp in the tech sector. Fed/military/mil contractor rate is about the same here.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: May 31, 2017, 09:17:17 AM »

Fantastic maps. What is the theory as to why the population increases in the NYC exurbs stopped, and then reversed, around 2010? 

There is this serious proposal that is getting traction in Congress to levy a carbon charge, which then goes back to the residents pro rata, so that those who use less carbon make money, and those who use a lot lose money. It is a carbon fuel severance charge when the carbon fuel is extracted from the earth in the US (there is some sort of carbon unit amount that is calculated), or with respect to imported goods in an amount based on the amount of carbon fuel to fabricate them. The tax increases annually, slowly getting higher and higher and higher, in 15 cent increments annually (that would be the amount approximately per gallon of gasoline). If that comes down the pike, over time, the exurbs will really take a hit, assuming folks living there on average have longer commutes. Places like Montana won't do well either, unless remote rural areas get some relief from the regime.

Both conservative and liberal economists like this proposal, because it is market driven, and does not give any money to the government net. Rather it creates an incentive for consumers to use less carbon, as they make substitutions in the basket of goods that they purchase.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: May 31, 2017, 06:48:27 PM »

Fantastic maps. What is the theory as to why the population increases in the NYC exurbs stopped, and then reversed, around 2010?

High gas prices and the housing bust probably hurt the NYC exurbs the most.  NYC's exurbs are more far-flung than most other cities', making commuting costs even to suburban edge cities like Morristown and White Plains a factor when deciding where to live.  It's one thing to commute 20 or 30 minutes to work from Victor to Rochester, New York, and another to commute 90 minutes or more from the Poconos or Mid-Hudson Valley to NYC.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: June 01, 2017, 07:30:23 PM »

At jimrtex's suggestion, I'm testing out some population change maps using the 5-year ACS dataset.  Unfortunately, these datasets don't go back as far as the yearly population estimates.  Since they're 5-year estimates, I'm referring to the datasets by the most recent year - e.g. the most recent 2011-15 dataset is c2013.

First, the DC Metro by place, including CDPs:


This goes back to c.2007, but I think the c2007 (2005-2009) 5 year estimate used the 2000 Census codes, which I didn't update, so I threw out the c2007-08 map. 

Note that I deliberately left the county remainders out of the map because I have no reliable way to calculate the county remainder population.  Earlier versions of the ACS doesn't appear to break down CDP/Town data by county for CDPs/Towns that cross county lines.

Second, the DC Metro by ZIP code:


Unfortunately, this data only goes back 4 years.  Note that the color saturation is higher, likely due to larger MoEs.

I also tried my hand at a c2012-13 change map by Block Group.  There was way too much information, and because MoEs were high, saturation levels were even worse than the Zip Code map.  I can post a map of one of the metros for those years if anyone is interested in what they look like.  But it's a TMI mess.

Does anyone want to see any other maps?
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: June 01, 2017, 07:52:07 PM »

Southern Wisconsin (Milwaukee & Madison) would be awesome!
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: June 01, 2017, 10:03:42 PM »
« Edited: June 01, 2017, 10:09:57 PM by cinyc »

Southern Wisconsin (Milwaukee & Madison) would be awesome!

Southeastern Wisconsin:

Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: June 01, 2017, 10:09:33 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2017, 01:21:14 AM by cinyc »

Metro Detroit:



Is it me, or does there seem to be more variation in the 2000-10 data than the 2011-16 data for the outer areas of SE Michigan and SE Wisconsin?  Does Census revise the population estimates after the census to reflect the next Census or something?  Or is Census just estimating things by county in the smaller jurisdictions until the 2020 census?

Edited to add:

Metro Detroit doesn't include Monroe County (though the CSA does).  It does include Lapeer and St. Clair, to the north.  Here's a new map showing those two counties.  It also has the benefit of showing Flint:

Logged
Hydera
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,545


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: June 01, 2017, 10:17:38 PM »

Fantastic maps. What is the theory as to why the population increases in the NYC exurbs stopped, and then reversed, around 2010?

High gas prices and the housing bust probably hurt the NYC exurbs the most.  NYC's exurbs are more far-flung than most other cities', making commuting costs even to suburban edge cities like Morristown and White Plains a factor when deciding where to live.  It's one thing to commute 20 or 30 minutes to work from Victor to Rochester, New York, and another to commute 90 minutes or more from the Poconos or Mid-Hudson Valley to NYC.



Also real estate in NYC and its surrounding suburbs is cheaper than the exurbs. Which probably led to that Post-2008 crash change in population growth.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: June 01, 2017, 10:39:11 PM »

Also real estate in NYC and its surrounding suburbs is cheaper than the exurbs. Which probably led to that Post-2008 crash change in population growth.

It probably depends on what exurb and where in NYC.  Manhattan south of 96th Street, most of Brooklyn, and much of the inner suburban New York Counties (Westchester, Nassau, Bergen, and the nicer parts of Union and Essex) are very expensive.   The Bronx and the crappier parts of the inner suburban counties are less expensive - and growing a bit by infill.  But the infill tends to be apartments, not single family homes, which are out of reach for your average New Yorker in the close-in suburbs unless you move to a city or town with crappy schools.

There are still ads on TV for people to get more house for less in the Poconos.  Just 90 minutes by bus from NYC.  Just.  On a good day.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: June 02, 2017, 12:24:41 AM »

Boston:

Logged
jimrtex
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,828
Marshall Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: June 02, 2017, 09:17:32 AM »

Southern Wisconsin (Milwaukee & Madison) would be awesome!

Southeastern Wisconsin:


It appears that the Census Bureau is making estimates at the county level, and then distributing that among the towns and cities within the counties.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.057 seconds with 12 queries.