How did Mecklenberg County, NC (Charlotte) become so liberal?
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  How did Mecklenberg County, NC (Charlotte) become so liberal?
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Author Topic: How did Mecklenberg County, NC (Charlotte) become so liberal?  (Read 2265 times)
Arbitrage1980
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« on: May 30, 2017, 11:35:29 AM »

W Bush won it in 2000, and lost it by a few points in 2004. But beginning in 2008, the Democrats have been winning it by huge margins. Hillary won it by around 30 points this past election. What's going on? I know Charlotte has exploded population wise, so is it due to liberal northerners moving in?
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #1 on: May 30, 2017, 12:10:11 PM »

I'll start by saying I know nothing about this county, but this is something people need to consider:

Let's consider a hypothetical county that is 80% White in the year 2000, and the only options on the ballot are Democrat or Republican. 

Let's say in 2000, George W. Bush wins 58% of the White vote there and 25% of the minority vote, making it about average for what Republicans are getting now.  Bush would win the county with 51.4% of the vote to Gore's 48.6%.

If you fast forward to 2008, and Whites and minorities vote literally EXACTLY the same, but the county is now 75% White and 25% minority, Obama would have won the county with 50.25% of the vote to McCain's 49.75%.  If by 2016 the trend continued and the county was 70% White and 30% minority and voting patterns stayed the same, Hillary would have won 51.9%-48.1%.

We cannot assume that a county switching its voting patterns is due to the TYPES of voters we associate(d) with that county changing their political preferences.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #2 on: May 30, 2017, 12:42:49 PM »

I always thought it was strange that Mecklenberg is more Democratic (by a significant amount) than Wake.   Just looking at the Demographics and population you'd think Wake would be the Democratic stronghold and Meck would just be a lean Dem county, but they're both becoming Dem strongholds.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #3 on: May 30, 2017, 03:38:43 PM »

I'll start by saying I know nothing about this county, but this is something people need to consider:

Let's consider a hypothetical county that is 80% White in the year 2000, and the only options on the ballot are Democrat or Republican. 

Let's say in 2000, George W. Bush wins 58% of the White vote there and 25% of the minority vote, making it about average for what Republicans are getting now.  Bush would win the county with 51.4% of the vote to Gore's 48.6%.

If you fast forward to 2008, and Whites and minorities vote literally EXACTLY the same, but the county is now 75% White and 25% minority, Obama would have won the county with 50.25% of the vote to McCain's 49.75%.  If by 2016 the trend continued and the county was 70% White and 30% minority and voting patterns stayed the same, Hillary would have won 51.9%-48.1%.

We cannot assume that a county switching its voting patterns is due to the TYPES of voters we associate(d) with that county changing their political preferences.

This is exactly what happened in Georgia, by the way, between 2004 and 2016.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #4 on: May 30, 2017, 06:27:06 PM »
« Edited: May 30, 2017, 06:29:45 PM by Fmr. Pres. Griffin »

The difference in margin between 2000 & 2016 is 33 points (between 2000 & 2012 is 25 points), so let's break as much of it down as we can:

1) Racial demographic shifts - Between 2000 and 2010, Mecklenburg went from being around 60% non-Hispanic white to being 45% non-Hispanic white. Factoring in the shifts among white and non-white residents while maintaining identical levels of support over that time period produces a swing of 7 points in favor of Democrats.

2) White demographic shifts - I'm not entirely sure how to calculate this, but over a 10-year period, roughly 50,000 whites older whites would have died in Mecklenburg. Considering that there is almost an identical number of raw whites in the county in 2010 as there were in 2000 (~415,000), they've been replaced by a combination of births and (mostly) influx of white professionals from outside the state. If we assume that the whites who passed on were 75% Republican in 2000 and the whites who replaced them would've been 50/50, between 2000-2010, this would produce an average swing of 6 points in favor of Democrats.

3) Actual campaign infrastructure - While NC was still largely Democratic at the state level during the Bush years - and even had a Democratic Senator - the kinds of investments that come with presidential campaigns are above/beyond anything that would likely come from the state or local level. Considering Mecklenburg specifically was heavily-targeted by multiple presidential campaigns, this produces a swing of 3-6 points in favor of Democrats*.

2008-12 Only:

  • 4) Improvements in non-white support - While we accounted for the increase in the share of non-white voters above, we also have to account for the increase in support for Democrats (at least for 08/12, as 16 looked a lot like 00/04). Assuming that non-white voters' support of Democrats swung by 15 points between 2000-2012 (say, from around 77% to 85%), this produces a swing of 5 points in favor of Democrats.

2016 Only:

  • 5) The standard suburban swings of '16 - In southern metropolitan areas like Mecklenburg, we saw massive swings to Clinton compared to 2012. While Charlotte is an urban area, Mecklenburg has plenty of suburbanesque areas in it as well. In similar metro areas (Dallas, Atlanta, etc), we saw some pretty consistent swings of around 15 points in favor of Democrats.


This accounts for a 21-24 point swing in favor of Democrats from 2000-2012 (scenarios 1-4) and a 31-34 point swing in favor of Democrats from 2000-2016 (scenarios 1-3 & 5)
.

That's right on par with Clinton's 30-point win in the county in 2016 and Obama's wins of 24 and 22 points in 08/12.

* According to conventional political wisdom, a good groundgame/field op improves a candidate's performance by "3 points" - I always forget if that's a 3-point improvement in candidate's margin or 3-point improvement in candidate's share of the vote, hence the range
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TDAS04
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« Reply #5 on: June 03, 2017, 01:04:40 PM »

I always thought it was strange that Mecklenberg is more Democratic (by a significant amount) than Wake.   Just looking at the Demographics and population you'd think Wake would be the Democratic stronghold and Meck would just be a lean Dem county, but they're both becoming Dem strongholds.

I think Mecklenburg is more Democratic than Wake because Charlotte contains a larger share of Mecklenburg's population (79.8%) than Raleigh's share of Wake's (44.8%).  Raleigh is probably more liberal than Charlotte.
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Smash255
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« Reply #6 on: June 03, 2017, 08:44:21 PM »

My parents retired to the area, (Indian Land in Lancaster, less than 1/2 mile from the border).  Mecklenberg has become more diverse and also seen significant growth.  Much of the growth is from northern transplants, which are considerably less Republican than whites in Mecklenberg than in 2000.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #7 on: June 03, 2017, 10:46:33 PM »

The difference in margin between 2000 & 2016 is 33 points (between 2000 & 2012 is 25 points), so let's break as much of it down as we can:

1) Racial demographic shifts - Between 2000 and 2010, Mecklenburg went from being around 60% non-Hispanic white to being 45% non-Hispanic white. Factoring in the shifts among white and non-white residents while maintaining identical levels of support over that time period produces a swing of 7 points in favor of Democrats.

2) White demographic shifts - I'm not entirely sure how to calculate this, but over a 10-year period, roughly 50,000 whites older whites would have died in Mecklenburg. Considering that there is almost an identical number of raw whites in the county in 2010 as there were in 2000 (~415,000), they've been replaced by a combination of births and (mostly) influx of white professionals from outside the state. If we assume that the whites who passed on were 75% Republican in 2000 and the whites who replaced them would've been 50/50, between 2000-2010, this would produce an average swing of 6 points in favor of Democrats.

3) Actual campaign infrastructure - While NC was still largely Democratic at the state level during the Bush years - and even had a Democratic Senator - the kinds of investments that come with presidential campaigns are above/beyond anything that would likely come from the state or local level. Considering Mecklenburg specifically was heavily-targeted by multiple presidential campaigns, this produces a swing of 3-6 points in favor of Democrats*.

2008-12 Only:

  • 4) Improvements in non-white support - While we accounted for the increase in the share of non-white voters above, we also have to account for the increase in support for Democrats (at least for 08/12, as 16 looked a lot like 00/04). Assuming that non-white voters' support of Democrats swung by 15 points between 2000-2012 (say, from around 77% to 85%), this produces a swing of 5 points in favor of Democrats.

2016 Only:

  • 5) The standard suburban swings of '16 - In southern metropolitan areas like Mecklenburg, we saw massive swings to Clinton compared to 2012. While Charlotte is an urban area, Mecklenburg has plenty of suburbanesque areas in it as well. In similar metro areas (Dallas, Atlanta, etc), we saw some pretty consistent swings of around 15 points in favor of Democrats.


This accounts for a 21-24 point swing in favor of Democrats from 2000-2012 (scenarios 1-4) and a 31-34 point swing in favor of Democrats from 2000-2016 (scenarios 1-3 & 5)
.

That's right on par with Clinton's 30-point win in the county in 2016 and Obama's wins of 24 and 22 points in 08/12.

* According to conventional political wisdom, a good groundgame/field op improves a candidate's performance by "3 points" - I always forget if that's a 3-point improvement in candidate's margin or 3-point improvement in candidate's share of the vote, hence the range

Thanks President Griffin for an extremely detailed explanation and analysis....

Do you have any particular data on the wealthiest parts of County, so maybe we can pull some precinct results and look at the '12 > '16 shift, since there's another thread where many of us were pulling up detailed precinct level data on the Obama '12/ Clinton '16 swings, and the fascinating thing is that it looks like there was something like a 15-20% swing regardless of regions of the country, Metro Area, nor traditional Party affiliation....

Now, I believe that I managed to locate a comprehensive precinct level dump that includes NC in 2000, so there might be some data to pull on that part of your post, as opposed to Macro-Level County Demographic shifts.....
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hopper
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« Reply #8 on: June 04, 2017, 01:09:00 AM »

Demographics of Mecklenburg, NC:

2000:

64% White
28% Black
  6% Hispanic or Latino
  3% Asian
  3% Two or More Races

2010:

51% Non-Hispanic White
31% Black
12% Hispanic
  5% Asian
  3% Two or More Races

2015:

48% Non-Hispanic White
32% Black
13% Hispanic
  6% Asian
  2% Two or More Races
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hopper
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« Reply #9 on: June 04, 2017, 01:52:55 AM »

According to Pres Griffin and Reaganate's prescient maps Mecklenburg County is going Dem because of Non-Whites:

Mecklenburg Whites: 50-45% Trump
Mecklenburg Non-Whites: 87-9% Hillary

On a separate note the counties that border Mecklenburg County that trended Dem: Union(voted for Trump 63-33%), Carbarrus( Trump 58-39%.) Counties that border Mecklenburg County that trended R: Gaston(voted for Trump 64-32%),  Lincoln(Trump 72-25%), Iredell County(Trump 66-30%.)
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #10 on: June 04, 2017, 07:18:46 PM »

Demographics of Mecklenburg, NC:

2000:

64% White
28% Black
  6% Hispanic or Latino
  3% Asian
  3% Two or More Races

2010:

51% Non-Hispanic White
31% Black
12% Hispanic
  5% Asian
  3% Two or More Races

2015:

48% Non-Hispanic White
32% Black
13% Hispanic
  6% Asian
  2% Two or More Races

Had no idea the demographics changed that rapidly. That explains most of the GOP's decline there. Trump did however lose 28 precincts in Mecklenburg that voted for Romney. These are affluent white areas that normally vote GOP. Trump's weakness with college whites definitely concerns me.
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nclib
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« Reply #11 on: June 12, 2017, 09:54:12 PM »

I always thought it was strange that Mecklenberg is more Democratic (by a significant amount) than Wake.   Just looking at the Demographics and population you'd think Wake would be the Democratic stronghold and Meck would just be a lean Dem county, but they're both becoming Dem strongholds.

I think Mecklenburg is more Democratic than Wake because Charlotte contains a larger share of Mecklenburg's population (79.8%) than Raleigh's share of Wake's (44.8%).  Raleigh is probably more liberal than Charlotte.

Living in Chapel Hill, and having lived in Raleigh, both those points make sense. Locally, Charlotte is thought of as being pretty conservative, even if the recent numbers (Pres. and Amendment One in 2012) haven't confirmed that. Certainly the Triangle as a whole is way more liberal than the Charlotte metro, though Orange and Durham are part of that. Still, Raleigh appears to be more liberal than Charlotte.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #12 on: June 13, 2017, 10:12:52 AM »

Demographics of Mecklenburg, NC:

2000:

64% White
28% Black
  6% Hispanic or Latino
  3% Asian
  3% Two or More Races

2010:

51% Non-Hispanic White
31% Black
12% Hispanic
  5% Asian
  3% Two or More Races

2015:

48% Non-Hispanic White
32% Black
13% Hispanic
  6% Asian
  2% Two or More Races

Had no idea the demographics changed that rapidly. That explains most of the GOP's decline there. Trump did however lose 28 precincts in Mecklenburg that voted for Romney. These are affluent white areas that normally vote GOP. Trump's weakness with college whites definitely concerns me.

MOST political change is from demographic change.  Affluent Whites moving away from Trump is just icing on a cake.
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