2008 without the recession

[DPKdebator]

What would the map have looked like in 2008 without the Great Recession? Obama would obviously still win, but it would definitely be closer, something like this:

298 D - 240 R

[TheSaint250]

What would the map have looked like in 2008 without the Great Recession? Obama would obviously still win, but it would definitely be closer, something like this:

298 D - 240 R

I'd say Colorado goes for McCain as well.

[Mr.Phips]

What would the map have looked like in 2008 without the Great Recession? Obama would obviously still win, but it would definitely be closer, something like this:

298 D - 240 R

I'd say Colorado goes for McCain as well.

I'd go with Ohio before Colorado.  Obama carried Colorado by almost 10 points.

[Arbitrage1980]

What would the map have looked like in 2008 without the Great Recession? Obama would obviously still win, but it would definitely be closer, something like this:

298 D - 240 R

This is the exact map I had. Obama and McCain were virtually tied before the Lehman bankruptcy. Of course, Obama would have won due to the fundamentals favoring the Democrats and his superiority as a politician, but McCain would have held onto the traditional red states that he ended up losing. VA probably would have been super tight, with McCain winning it by 1-2 points.

[Lord Admirale]

Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)/Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) - 316 EV
Senator John McCain (R-AZ)/Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) - 222 EV

[The Govanah Jake]

Obama: 298
McCain: 240

Obama would still win of course. It was a democratic year and with 8 years of a unpopular bush presidency, people would want change. It would be closer without the Great Recession though. In the west he does better in all the West Coast states and gets Obama below 60% in California. In Montana it is still closer then usually but he is able to get 53-45 or something like that their with a better economy and a probably a less visible Write in Paul campaign. In the Rocky Mountain states he would do better however would narrowly lose Colorado to Obama in something like a 49-47/48 margin due to increase hispanic turnout and urban turnout from 2004. In the Deep south he would do better. In Louisiana decrease black turnout and urban turnout from a less severe economy is able to put McCain slightly over 60% their. In Georgia the same thing happens and even though its closer then usually and Obama still massively wins Atlanta and its closer suburbs he still loses the state in a 53/54- 44/45% margin. In Florida with no recession he doesn't due so badly in Miami and its county (Where he got 41% from Bush's 46%) and the urban areas and less of a black turnout in the north is enough for bush to hold up enough of the bush coalition to take Florida in a Very tight Margin. In North Carolina again all of these things happens however it is much closer then usally taking the state from 56-43% in 2004 to something like 51/52-47/48%. Virginia is the tricky one. Even though its true that McCain was leading mostly pre Great Recession, it was still close and Obama being Obama and 2008 being 2008 meant he would do better there with increase black turnout and increased margins in NOVA. I think in the end he would be able to avoid NOVA by doing a little better in the south and in Virginia Beach and in central Virginia probably narrowly flipping some counties and is able to squeak out a slim victory perhaps not being decided for some time. In the Mid West and the Rust belt he is able to do better but is still crushed in most of these states with Obama getting upper digit margins in Michigan and Iowa and a upper 50s percentage in Illinois. Minnesota is closer then usually like it was in the real 2008 election probably with some relation to the republican convention their and Obama may only get something like 52/53-44/45% their to McCain but still improving on Kerry. In Ohio McCain does better but Obama is able to score a 1-2 point victory their. In the North East he does better in all of them but nothing significant changes or flips. The most significant out of them would probably be New Hampshire with its closer margin and victory for Obama.

[dw93]

Obama/Biden 316 EV
McCain/Palin 222 EV

Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Ohio are the deciding states. I see Florida flipping before Colorado as Florida was/is a swing state, where Colorado and Virginia were reliably republican pre 2008. The Financial Crisis would most likely hit in 2009 or 2010 at the latest. If it hits in 2009, or in 2008 between election day and inauguration day, Obama still has a chance at a second term. If it happens in 2010, 2012 in this timeline is 1980 all over again.

[dw93]

Obama: 298
McCain: 240

Obama would still win of course. It was a democratic year and with 8 years of a unpopular bush presidency, people would want change. It would be closer without the Great Recession though. In the west he does better in all the West Coast states and gets Obama below 60% in California. In Montana it is still closer then usually but he is able to get 53-45 or something like that their with a better economy and a probably a less visible Write in Paul campaign. In the Rocky Mountain states he would do better however would narrowly lose Colorado to Obama in something like a 49-47/48 margin due to increase hispanic turnout and urban turnout from 2004. In the Deep south he would do better. In Louisiana decrease black turnout and urban turnout from a less severe economy is able to put McCain slightly over 60% their. In Georgia the same thing happens and even though its closer then usually and Obama still massively wins Atlanta and its closer suburbs he still loses the state in a 53/54- 44/45% margin. In Florida with no recession he doesn't due so badly in Miami and its county (Where he got 41% from Bush's 46%) and the urban areas and less of a black turnout in the north is enough for bush to hold up enough of the bush coalition to take Florida in a Very tight Margin. In North Carolina again all of these things happens however it is much closer then usally taking the state from 56-43% in 2004 to something like 51/52-47/48%. Virginia is the tricky one. Even though its true that McCain was leading mostly pre Great Recession, it was still close and Obama being Obama and 2008 being 2008 meant he would do better there with increase black turnout and increased margins in NOVA. I think in the end he would be able to avoid NOVA by doing a little better in the south and in Virginia Beach and in central Virginia probably narrowly flipping some counties and is able to squeak out a slim victory perhaps not being decided for some time. In the Mid West and the Rust belt he is able to do better but is still crushed in most of these states with Obama getting upper digit margins in Michigan and Iowa and a upper 50s percentage in Illinois. Minnesota is closer then usually like it was in the real 2008 election probably with some relation to the republican convention their and Obama may only get something like 52/53-44/45% their to McCain but still improving on Kerry. In Ohio McCain does better but Obama is able to score a 1-2 point victory their. In the North East he does better in all of them but nothing significant changes or flips. The most significant out of them would probably be New Hampshire with its closer margin and victory for Obama.

This, but flip Ohio.  There's also a substantial chance that McCain would win the PV, although I think Obama still wins it by 1% or so. 

I think Obama still wins Ohio. Bush did worse there in 2004 than he did in 2000, as a swing of around 100K votes in Ohio that year would've made Kerry President. Why, after Bush's disaster of a second term, would Ohio go even more Republican?