Slate: "Will We Ever Have a Woman as President?" (Its Conclusion: Unlikely)

[Mr. Smith]

Ironically it would have been far better for the country had the first black president been a conservative Republican, as we would have had ethnic depolarization. Conservatives would have spent 4-8 years defending and learning to sympathize with a black man, striking a string blow to conservative racism, while a portion of blacks who were conservatively inclined to begin with would have peeled away to the GOP coalition. Both parties' coalitions would have been ethnically diverse, which would have meant neither could have afforded to traffic in the sort of bigotry Trump did. As an added bonus to democratic "Berniecrat" progressives, with conservative minorities exited from the Democratic Party, there would have been no default establishment-backing bloc of minority voters to hold up a candidate like Hillary. Both parties would be pushed towards competing on ideas, rather than ethnic identity. Sadly it did not happen, because good things do not seem to happen these days.

That's only one possibility.

It's equally possible that said black conservative just gets called an Uncle Tom and the ethnic polarization gets worse.

[Beet]

Ironically it would have been far better for the country had the first black president been a conservative Republican, as we would have had ethnic depolarization. Conservatives would have spent 4-8 years defending and learning to sympathize with a black man, striking a string blow to conservative racism, while a portion of blacks who were conservatively inclined to begin with would have peeled away to the GOP coalition. Both parties' coalitions would have been ethnically diverse, which would have meant neither could have afforded to traffic in the sort of bigotry Trump did. As an added bonus to democratic "Berniecrat" progressives, with conservative minorities exited from the Democratic Party, there would have been no default establishment-backing bloc of minority voters to hold up a candidate like Hillary. Both parties would be pushed towards competing on ideas, rather than ethnic identity. Sadly it did not happen, because good things do not seem to happen these days.

That's only one possibility.

It's equally possible that said black conservative just gets called an Uncle Tom and the ethnic polarization gets worse.

Tim Scott gets that sort of flak and he's usually very good at responding. And every time he does, he reminds people that "race" does not equal political alignment and I think that would have been a lesson the whole country desperately needs to hear. Now after Obama, ethnic polarization is worse than ever and most maps predicting the state of affairs in 2050/2070 are little more than maps showing the projected white share of the population in most states.

[DrScholl]

There are plenty of people of both genders who wouldn't vote for a woman for President and it was likely a factor in 2016. In 2008, a woman was on the ticket (only for VP) and there were some sharp swings in the Midwest. Granted, there were other factors then, but I have to wonder if Palin's presence on the Republican ticket didn't have put off some voters because of her gender. Of course, she was a poor VP choice, but it's worth debating if gender played a role in some areas that swung.

[The Mikado]

Ironically it would have been far better for the country had the first black president been a conservative Republican, as we would have had ethnic depolarization. Conservatives would have spent 4-8 years defending and learning to sympathize with a black man or woman, striking a string blow to conservative racism, while a portion of blacks who were conservatively inclined to begin with would have peeled away to the GOP coalition. Both parties' coalitions would have been ethnically diverse, which would have meant neither could have afforded to traffic in the sort of bigotry Trump did. As an added bonus to democratic "Berniecrat" progressives, with conservative minorities exited from the Democratic Party, there would have been no default establishment-backing bloc of minority voters to hold up a candidate like Hillary. Both parties would be pushed towards competing on ideas, rather than ethnic identity. Sadly it did not happen, because good things do not seem to happen these days.

With women the dynamics are completely different, and it would be healthier for the first woman to be a Democrat.

The most likely possible black Republican first president would've been Colin Powell running against Clinton in 1996, and he was always a moderate and would probably have ended up becoming an Indy and leaving the GOP sometime in his term as president.

[Mr. Smith]

There are plenty of people of both genders who wouldn't vote for a woman for President and it was likely a factor in 2016. In 2008, a woman was on the ticket (only for VP) and there were some sharp swings in the Midwest. Granted, there were other factors then, but I have to wonder if Palin's presence on the Republican ticket didn't have put off some voters because of her gender. Of course, she was a poor VP choice, but it's worth debating if gender played a role in some areas that swung.

Counter: I don't see how Ferraro really sank Mondale's chances anymore than they were at.