WI-01: Ryan to face credible Democratic opponent (WSJ)
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  WI-01: Ryan to face credible Democratic opponent (WSJ)
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Author Topic: WI-01: Ryan to face credible Democratic opponent (WSJ)  (Read 4296 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: June 02, 2017, 07:37:41 AM »

https://www.wsj.com/article_email/wisconsin-hopeful-seeks-to-tie-speaker-paul-ryan-to-donald-trump-1496395980-lMyQjAxMTE3MDA2MjYwOTIzWj/
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #1 on: June 02, 2017, 08:27:45 AM »

This is hype af. It's pretty much 50/50 district at the presidential level so in a strong wave year this could be good. There was some polling done showing WI-01 being fairly unhappy with Ryan.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: June 02, 2017, 08:30:16 AM »

It could get close, but it would take an incredibly massive wave for Ryan to lose with how WI-01 is drawn. Too much Waukesha County and not enough Rock County
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mvd10
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« Reply #3 on: June 02, 2017, 09:07:17 AM »

Ryan won 65-30 in 2016. Trump also won the district 53-41. I don't think Ryan is going to lose his seat. I can see him just resigning if he loses the speakership which is possible.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #4 on: June 02, 2017, 09:32:33 AM »

It could get close, but it would take an incredibly massive wave for Ryan to lose with how WI-01 is drawn. Too much Waukesha County and not enough Rock County

Shhhh, don't ruin their dreams that it's a 50/50 district.
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Orser67
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« Reply #5 on: June 02, 2017, 09:51:51 AM »

It would take a 1994- or 2010-level wave, but I don't think we can rule out a wave of that size.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: June 02, 2017, 10:33:26 AM »

It would take a 1994- or 2010-level wave, but I don't think we can rule out a wave of that size.

I hope Dems can defeat Ryan, I want the House so badly.
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Figueira
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« Reply #7 on: June 02, 2017, 02:34:11 PM »

I can't say that Ryan is likely to lose, but I'm glad he's being targeted.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #8 on: June 02, 2017, 04:29:08 PM »

I always suspected Ryan wasn't 100% safe. Obama won the previous version of it in 2008, and came within 5 percent of winning the current version in 2012. I've heard conflicting stories about how people there view Ryan, but it will probably take a significant wave to topple him.
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Pericles
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« Reply #9 on: June 02, 2017, 04:34:20 PM »

I still think Ryan is pretty safe, but it would be really cool if in a big Democratic wave Ryan lost his own seat. When was the last time something like that happened?
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #10 on: June 02, 2017, 04:35:11 PM »

Spoiler alert: Paul Ryan wins
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #11 on: June 02, 2017, 04:48:45 PM »

Has Paul Ryan's austerity stopped him bringing back pork barrel spending to his district Byrd or McConnell style? Being able to bring back the pork is always good for a few extra points in a race. Everyone hates wasteful spending, unless it benefits their district.
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kyc0705
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« Reply #12 on: June 02, 2017, 05:40:33 PM »

I still think Ryan is pretty safe, but it would be really cool if in a big Democratic wave Ryan lost his own seat. When was the last time something like that happened?

It's been almost a quarter-century since there was a swing big enough to knock out the speaker.
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #13 on: June 02, 2017, 09:32:49 PM »

E N D O R S E D
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Figueira
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« Reply #14 on: June 02, 2017, 10:56:37 PM »

I still think Ryan is pretty safe, but it would be really cool if in a big Democratic wave Ryan lost his own seat. When was the last time something like that happened?

It's been almost a quarter-century since there was a swing big enough to knock out the speaker.

Foley's district was in Eastern Washington. Why was that even Democratic in the first place?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: June 03, 2017, 12:43:56 AM »

It all depends on if the Dems are really gonna try to go after Walker. Is gonna sway this district.  Dems  shouldn't give up on WI, because it gonna be key to winning the electoral college in 2020. I want Walker,  Rauner defeated.  As well as Ryan.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #16 on: June 04, 2017, 10:28:49 AM »

Ryan's not really in any danger of losing, but a candidate who can hold him to a 7-10 point race and keep Ryan pinned down rather than raising money/campaigning for vulnerable GOPers around the country would be beneficial all on its own.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #17 on: June 04, 2017, 10:49:24 AM »

Ryan won 65-30 in 2016. Trump also won the district 53-41. I don't think Ryan is going to lose his seat. I can see him just resigning if he loses the speakership which is possible.

Ryan also only won by 10 points in 2012 against a who cares candidate. I can definitely recognize that beating Ryan would mean Democrats have already won the House and then some, but it doesn't hurt that Dems have a credible candidate for once.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #18 on: June 04, 2017, 01:19:25 PM »

Ryan could lose in a wave, because that seat is not 100% safe.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #19 on: June 04, 2017, 02:34:04 PM »

Ryan is not going to lose and this is not a "50/50 district".
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Badger
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« Reply #20 on: June 04, 2017, 04:07:06 PM »

I still think Ryan is pretty safe, but it would be really cool if in a big Democratic wave Ryan lost his own seat. When was the last time something like that happened?

It's been almost a quarter-century since there was a swing big enough to knock out the speaker.

Foley's district was in Eastern Washington. Why was that even Democratic in the first place?

Spokane. Plus the red state-blue state divide was just beginning when he lost.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #21 on: June 05, 2017, 06:25:25 AM »

Ryan won 65-30 in 2016. Trump also won the district 53-41. I don't think Ryan is going to lose his seat. I can see him just resigning if he loses the speakership which is possible.

Ryan also only won by 10 points in 2012 against a who cares candidate. I can definitely recognize that beating Ryan would mean Democrats have already won the House and then some, but it doesn't hurt that Dems have a credible candidate for once.

Zerban was a very popular and well liked person from the Kenosha (think it was county) board. He has support outside of traditional Democrats. Outside of Ryan's first two elections it was the only time he faced a serious challenger. It was also a perfect storm in the Preaidenrial election that he was on. Then in two years against the same candidate he went back to his normal domination. In summation, he's not losing.
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NeverAgain
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« Reply #22 on: June 05, 2017, 11:12:26 AM »

If this guy gets over 40, I will be shocked.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #23 on: June 05, 2017, 11:23:59 AM »

Ryan's not really in any danger of losing, but a candidate who can hold him to a 7-10 point race and keep Ryan pinned down rather than raising money/campaigning for vulnerable GOPers around the country would be beneficial all on its own.

This is a very good point. Though I'm skeptical even a "credible" candidate can pull it off.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #24 on: June 05, 2017, 12:11:43 PM »

https://ballotpedia.org/Alabama%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_elections,_2014
https://ballotpedia.org/Alabama%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2016

If there is any member of the House who could (unintentionally) end up replicating this effect...
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