Is it possible to draw a Republican-leaning House district in Massachusetts?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 28, 2024, 02:39:35 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Is it possible to draw a Republican-leaning House district in Massachusetts?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Is it possible to draw a Republican-leaning House district in Massachusetts?  (Read 1016 times)
The Arizonan
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,562
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 04, 2017, 10:51:07 PM »

Just asking out of curiosity and because it seems doable, at least theoretically.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,791


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 04, 2017, 11:23:56 PM »
« Edited: July 04, 2017, 11:27:20 PM by Oryxslayer »



This district was fashioned almost entirely out of towns Trump won. Never mind that Obama won it by around 7K votes since he had better margins in Rural Massachusetts than in Suburbia when compared to 2016.

Is it feasible? Well, the MA House and Senate are both permanent Democratic Super-majorities, and the governor is rather weak. Massachusetts meanwhile is losing districts over time, meaning that those districts present are going to be pushed more and more into the Boston Metro.

Possible? Yes. Feasible? No.
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,659
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 05, 2017, 08:35:37 AM »



This district was fashioned almost entirely out of towns Trump won. Never mind that Obama won it by around 7K votes since he had better margins in Rural Massachusetts than in Suburbia when compared to 2016.

Is it feasible? Well, the MA House and Senate are both permanent Democratic Super-majorities, and the governor is rather weak. Massachusetts meanwhile is losing districts over time, meaning that those districts present are going to be pushed more and more into the Boston Metro.

Possible? Yes. Feasible? No.

Massachusetts is nowhere near losing any districts anytime in the near future,  at least not until 2040.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,791


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 05, 2017, 09:28:58 AM »


Massachusetts is nowhere near losing any districts anytime in the near future,  at least not until 2040.

Losing districts over time means that the trend line is downwards, not upwards. Yes, it shouldn't anytime soon, but that is the trendline.
Logged
Strudelcutie4427
Singletxguyforfun
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,375
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2017, 07:43:41 PM »



Best I can do are two seats that are Lean R at best, Although the green one  may be more Likely R by this point and the Blue one is probably Lean R
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,633
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 05, 2017, 07:50:51 PM »

Yes, and it's not especially difficult, but it probably would only be done in the extremely unlikely event of Republicans gaining control of the Massachusetts legislature, which would probably mean that the coalitions have shifted in pretty fundamental ways anyway.
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,659
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 05, 2017, 11:15:29 PM »

You have to work the Central district carefully around the bigger cities in the area like Worcester and Springfield, but it's doable with 2016 numbers to make a Republican District.  It's pretty much a Republican gerrymander, and definitely not a "normal" map though.

I don't think the Plymouth district would last that long with the way the trends are as a Republican district,  I imagine after 2020 redistricting that won't be possible anymore.
Logged
At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder
LouisvilleThunder
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,902
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.55, S: 1.74

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 06, 2017, 01:14:50 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2017, 02:28:23 PM by LouisvilleThunder »

I think that Republicans will win big in Massachusetts the next time there is a midterm under a Democratic president. It just doesn't seem logical for these rural districts that are 90%+ white to keep on voting Democrat forever, just like Iowa.
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 06, 2017, 02:16:26 PM »

Logged
Strudelcutie4427
Singletxguyforfun
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,375
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 06, 2017, 03:04:01 PM »


Definitely not there. Those are some of the most liberal suburban towns right on 90 and 95 between Boston and Worcester. Lots of tech workers and other Harvard MIT types out there
Logged
Strudelcutie4427
Singletxguyforfun
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,375
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 06, 2017, 03:06:52 PM »

I think that Republicans will win big in Massachusetts the next time there is a midterm under a Democratic president. It just doesn't seem logical for these rural districts that are 90%+ white to keep on voting Democrat forever, just like Iowa.

The only thing is the rural areas are always locked into a big city/minority bloc somewhere. Like 1 is Springfield/Holyoke. 2 gets Worcester and the hippy parts of the west. 9 gets stuck with New Bedford and Fall River. And 4 has that ridiculous string out of Bristol county up to uber-liberal newton and Brookline
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 06, 2017, 04:03:11 PM »

I think that Republicans will win big in Massachusetts the next time there is a midterm under a Democratic president. It just doesn't seem logical for these rural districts that are 90%+ white to keep on voting Democrat forever, just like Iowa.

Different things make NE whites tick than Midwest/plains ones, though
Logged
At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder
LouisvilleThunder
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,902
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.55, S: 1.74

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 06, 2017, 04:52:17 PM »

The Great Lakes region's rural areas with many Obama-Trump voters are not really redneck or even extremely religious either.
Logged
Strudelcutie4427
Singletxguyforfun
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,375
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 06, 2017, 08:40:33 PM »



Best I can do are two seats that are Lean R at best, Although the green one  may be more Likely R by this point and the Blue one is probably Lean R
I can't seem to get this to work how are you doing it?
If you mean the app, use internet explorer or firefox. It doesnt work on chrome and that confused me for a while haha

If you meant the districts, Since the two i did seal off parts of the state i had to draw a western district first to get the border with the green one, and the same in the south east to get a border for the blue one. Then all i did was wrap in as many marginal/republican leaning towns as i could, small liberal cities like Fitchburg and Southbridge didnt effect it too much. The other one was harder since i had to snake it around Brockton and Stoughton/Sharon to connect the Braintree-Plymouth-Bridgewater part to the places like Foxboro and Walpole without throwing a 70% dem city with 90,000 people into it
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.222 seconds with 12 queries.