MN-08: Nolan won't run for Governor, will defend seat

[GeorgiaModerate]

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Trump won this district 54-39; Obama won 52-46 in 2012. 

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This district will likely flip the moment he retires, but at least dems have it until 2020 now.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Smart move. I like him and I wouldn't want to see him get lost in a crowded governor's race.

[Dr. MB]

I like the guy. While he would make a good Governor, it's important to prevent a Trump-type from winning his seat.

[Skill and Chance]

This was a smart choice for him and for Minnesota Dems in general.  If he ran for governor, the seat would be gone (probably even more gone than MN-01 is because at least Rochester is trending Dem there) and he would probably just split the rural and moderate vote with Walz and let a far left some dude through the primary.

[Nyvin]

He's a lot more left-leaning than Colin Peterson (by quite a big margin...) and he's quite popular in his area,  so this is definitely a win for the Dems.   

[Mr.Phips]

This was a smart choice for him and for Minnesota Dems in general.  If he ran for governor, the seat would be gone (probably even more gone than MN-01 is because at least Rochester is trending Dem there) and he would probably just split the rural and moderate vote with Walz and let a far left some dude through the primary.

If Trump's margin in MN-08 is the new norm, then Dems are in big trouble going forward at the statewide level in Minnesota.

[Lachi]

I don't see this seat flipping now.

[Skill and Chance]

This was a smart choice for him and for Minnesota Dems in general.  If he ran for governor, the seat would be gone (probably even more gone than MN-01 is because at least Rochester is trending Dem there) and he would probably just split the rural and moderate vote with Walz and let a far left some dude through the primary.

If Trump's margin in MN-08 is the new norm, then Dems are in big trouble going forward at the statewide level in Minnesota.

In the long run, yes.  But Clinton still won statewide and there is probably some more swing left in MN-03 and possibly MN-02 to counteract what is happening in the outstate for a couple more cycles.    

[Badger]

This was a smart choice for him and for Minnesota Dems in general.  If he ran for governor, the seat would be gone (probably even more gone than MN-01 is because at least Rochester is trending Dem there) and he would probably just split the rural and moderate vote with Walz and let a far left some dude through the primary.

If Trump's margin in MN-08 is the new norm, then Dems are in big trouble going forward at the statewide level in Minnesota.

That is a humongous if

[BuckeyeNut]

Tossup/Tilt D.

Wrong. Starts at Lean D, at least.

[krazen1211]

This was a smart choice for him and for Minnesota Dems in general.  If he ran for governor, the seat would be gone (probably even more gone than MN-01 is because at least Rochester is trending Dem there) and he would probably just split the rural and moderate vote with Walz and let a far left some dude through the primary.

If Trump's margin in MN-08 is the new norm, then Dems are in big trouble going forward at the statewide level in Minnesota.

In the long run, yes.  But Clinton still won statewide and there is probably some more swing left in MN-03 and possibly MN-02 to counteract what is happening in the outstate for a couple more cycles.    

MN-02 swung towards Trump, so I suspect that the GOP will be ok there. One of these districts is due to be dissolved, but that will strengthen the Republican performance in the outstate districts.

[BuckeyeNut]

Tossup/Tilt D.

Wrong. Starts at Lean D, at least.

There is generally no "right" or "wrong" when it comes to ratings, especially at this point in time. I'm not surprised that we disagree here (like always), but let's not argue about this.

Nolan starts out as slightly favored, but this race is definitely winnable for Republicans with the right candidate (granted, a big if here). It's probably similar to the Wisconsin Senate race.

I'll concede the former, but Nolan is himself, exceptional. Yes, he won the last election by a point, but he won with 9% of the vote in '12. If Mills runs again and it turns out to be yet another Republican year, he could go down, but I'd expect something more like a 4-point win ATM.

As Badger said, there's a big "if" at play.

[Heisenberg]

I don't even think Mills is the right kind of Republican for this seat. I think someone who's more blue collar (mold of Lou Barletta) needs to run to win this seat back for the GOP.

[NeverAgain]

My dad was good friends with him, and I know him semi-personally, and as much as I would love to him be Governor (he'd be great, by the way), I worry about the vulnerbility of the seat without him in it. He'll continue to make the 8th Proud, though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This was a smart choice for him and for Minnesota Dems in general.  If he ran for governor, the seat would be gone (probably even more gone than MN-01 is because at least Rochester is trending Dem there) and he would probably just split the rural and moderate vote with Walz and let a far left some dude through the primary.

Uh, Chris Coleman or Rebecca Otto are not "far left" by any definition of the term. Tina Liebling is to the left of both, but she's actually from Walz's district.

[publicunofficial]

I don't even think Mills is the right kind of Republican for this seat. I think someone who's more blue collar (mold of Lou Barletta) needs to run to win this seat back for the GOP.

I don't think Stewart Mills is the right kind of Republican for any seat IMO.

[Devils30]

If the Dems hold the Gov and win the legislature in 2018-20, I expect them to combine the reddest parts of MN-7 and 8 when MN loses a seat. If Dems pick up MN 2,3 in the next two cycles I certainly expect them to take parts of MN-4 and 5 and move them into 2,3 to strengthen whoever wins in 2018 or 2020.