Could Dave Reichert finally be defeated in 2018?

[Andy Hine]

Hillary Clinton won his district by 3 points in 2016 and has voted for Democratic presidential candidates as of late. Somehow, Reichert survived the 06 and 08 waves. Could this be the election in which he finally loses?

[RI]

Not likely

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Depends on whether the Democrats can recruit a top-tier candidate.  Given how unimpressive his campaign was when he faced DelBene (probably his only strong opponent since 2004), I suspect Reichert is actually a bit of a paper-tiger (albeit a fairly popular one).  He's definitely a much weaker incumbent than his reputation suggests (and before anyone mentions 2006/2008, Brunner was an awful candidate) and I could easily see him losing in a Democratic wave.  However, it'd probably take an A-list recruit.

[Sumner 1868]

There's literally no chance. Half the district is now in hard-right territory (i.e., East of the Cascades) and we still have a small but statistically notable base of RINO Tom-ish voters in much of the Eastside.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Yes. Clinton won in his district by 4 points, and if Democrats can field an A-list candidate they can beat him.

[Andy Hine]

It's also weird that he won by about 6 in 2008, but then only won by 4 in 2010. That tells me that a really strong candidate could maybe beat him in a Democratic wave year.

[Sumner 1868]

It's also weird that he won by about 6 in 2008, but then only won by 4 in 2010. That tells me that a really strong candidate could maybe beat him in a Democratic wave year.

Whole different district back then.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's also weird that he won by about 6 in 2008, but then only won by 4 in 2010. That tells me that a really strong candidate could maybe beat him in a Democratic wave year.

Whole different district back then.

True, but the only time faced a really strong opponent (2010), Reichert ran an absolutely God-awful campaign (to the point that there were rumors he might be suffering from severe brain damage despite being given a clean bill of health IIRC)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GOP nightmare scenario will include his district and Paul Ryan's district

[smoltchanov]

In his old district - surely yes. In his new, which includes considerable conservative territory east of Cascades - rather unlikely. Democrats will need an exceptional candidate, able to get very big majority in King county, for this...

[Sumner 1868]

In his old district - surely yes. In his new, which includes considerable conservative territory east of Cascades - rather unlikely. Democrats will need an exceptional candidate, able to get very big majority in King county, for this...

And after 2010 and 2014 they really don't have that kind of candidate out here.

[publicunofficial]

There's literally no chance. Half the district is now in hard-right territory (i.e., East of the Cascades) and we still have a small but statistically notable base of RINO Tom-ish voters in much of the Eastside.

Kittitas and Chelan are half of the district physically but they're not a big a factor as places like Auburn, Covington, Enumclaw, ect. that all are heavily Republican downballot.



The only elected Democrats in the district are State Sen. Mark Mullet (Issaquah) and State Rep. Pat Sullivan (Covington).

[smoltchanov]

And IIRC - Mullet was only barely reelected in 2016

[Vosem]

An open seat might be Tossup (or even Leans D), but Reichert survived 2006 and 2008 in a more Democratic version of this seat. Unless he's caught napping, he should be fine.

[Mike Thick]

Depends on whether the Democrats can recruit a top-tier candidate.  Given how unimpressive his campaign was when he faced DelBene (probably his only strong opponent since 2004), I suspect Reichert is actually a bit of a paper-tiger (albeit a fairly popular one).  He's definitely a much weaker incumbent than his reputation suggests (and before anyone mentions 2006/2008, Brunner was an awful candidate) and I could easily see him losing in a Democratic wave.  However, it'd probably take an A-list recruit.

Who do you think an A-list candidate for this seat would be?

[KingSweden]

Old lines? He'd already be gone. Now? Beutler is more vulnerable

[Nyvin]

Isn't Trump quite unpopular in Washington?   I think Reichert's rather vulnerable next year.

[Brittain33]

Those two counties east of the Cascades have only 117,000 people, FWIW.

[Xing]

No, most of the Republicans in the district who couldn't vote for Trump will happily vote for him, as will some Democrats.

[krazen1211]

An open seat might be Tossup (or even Leans D), but Reichert survived 2006 and 2008 in a more Democratic version of this seat. Unless he's caught napping, he should be fine.

The old district had Bellevue and I believe Mercer Island in it. No more! That district was overpopulated after the 2010 census by about 130k. The dropped areas are as important than the added areas.

[smoltchanov]

Those two counties east of the Cascades have only 117,000 people, FWIW.

But - extremely important 117.000. Redistricting allowed Republicans to drop areas where Democrats gaind almost every year, and substitute them with reliable Republican territory. Reichert was able to get good percentages in dropped areas before redistricting, and he wins heavily in new territory...

[publicunofficial]

And IIRC - Mullet was only barely reelected in 2016

So were the two Republican incumbents in the same district, FWIW. It's a D-trending seat.

[smoltchanov]

And IIRC - Mullet was only barely reelected in 2016

So were the two Republican incumbents in the same district, FWIW. It's a D-trending seat.

May be. But surely - not by so much and slowly. In adition - Reichert usually piles big majority in Pierce county. Democrats will need enormous margin out of King to beat him. And even in Democratic wave years 2006 and 2008 he was about 50-50 in King..

[LastMcGovernite]

This is a bit goofy, but couldn't Ken Jennings run in that district? He's politically active, his Mormon background could appeal to social conservatives, and he wouldn't have any problems raising publicity.

[Skill and Chance]

It's probably somewhere between the 30th and 35th most likely Democratic pickup.  He could easily lose in a Dem wave.