Cube root congressional districts

[DPKdebator]

Let's try to make a collaborative Congress using cube root congressional districts. Each state as many CDs as shown on this map:

(credit to Bacon King for making this)




I'll start with Massachusetts:

My goal was to make CDs that are similar geopolitically.

MA-01 (dark blue) - 68% white, 20% Hispanic, 8% black; 73% Obama - 25% McCain. Comprised of two Democratic strongholds, the Berkshires and Springfield. Definitely Safe D.

MA-02 (dark green) - 83% white, 7% Hispanic, 4% Asian; 61% Obama - 37% McCain. Mostly comprised of Democratic towns in Franklin County, Amherst, a few Republican towns in northwestern Worcester County, Fitchburg, and the Marlboroughs. Probably Safe D, but not as strong as many other districts.

MA-03 (purple) - 91% W, 5% H; 52% Obama - 46% McCain. Made up of Springfield suburbs and interior Worcester County, two of the state's most Republican regions. Probably the most pro-Trump CD of the bunch, since unlike its eastern cousin it swung greatly Republican in 2016. This district can probably be considered Safe R.

MA-04 (red) - 73% W, 12% H, 7% A, 5% B; 63% Obama - 37% McCain. This CD contains Worcester and Framingham plus their vicinities. Not the most Democratic Boston satellite area, but it has to major population centers so it's definitely Safe D.

MA-05 (yellow) - 89% W, 3% each B, H, and A; 54% Obama - 44% McCain. This CD is made up of southern Boston suburbs from Dedham to Attleboro, plus Taunton. Most of the time, a Democrat would have an easy time winning here, but a Republican could definitely make it competitive in a wave year (in 2012, Romney either won or got >40% everywhere besides Taunton and Sharon), so this district is Likely D.

MA-06 (teal) - 85% W, 6% H; 63% Obama - 35% McCain. Comprised of the Portuguese areas of southern Bristol, the southern end of Plymouth County, the western Cape, and the islands. Ancestrally Democratic, but Trump would've done a lot better here than Mitt Romney since the huge swings among densely populated Bristol areas, despite this it's still Safe D.

MA-07 (gray) - 93% W, 2% H; 53% Obama - 46% McCain. Made up of the ancestrally Republican South Shore (minus more Democratic Hull and Braintree) and all but the western end of the Cape. Very much so a Romney Republican region (Trump would flop here) since the latte liberal tip of the Cape is greatly outnumbered by Plymouth towns, so this one is Likely R.

MA-08 (periwinkle) - 68% W, 14% B, 8% A; 59% Obama - 40% McCain. Comprised of the Brockton and Quincy areas plus half of Hyde Park. This CD has a large black population and two cities, easily making it Safe D.

MA-09 (sky blue) - 73% W, 10% A, 7% each B and H (fun fact: there is a difference of 14 people between the black and Hispanic population in this CD); 71% Obama - 28% McCain. Comprised of the western rim of Boston and extends to Millis. Contains much of Southern Boston plus Newton and Braintree have large Jewish populations, so it's an obvious Safe D.

MA-10 (magenta) - 68% W, 12% A, 9% H, 8% B; 78% Obama - 20% McCain. Comprised of Brighton-Allston, part of downtown Boston, Cambridge, Somerville, and a few other northern satellite cities. Packed with with so many college kids and latte liberals it's not funny, and this is the most Democratic CD in the state- Safe D.

MA-11 (lime green) - 42% W, 24% H, 22% B; 78% Obama - 21% McCain. Comprised of inner Boston, and the rest of Suffolk County. Only majority-minority CD, and this status makes it Safe D.

MA-12 (cornflower blue) - 83% W, 8% A; 57% Obama - 41% McCain. Made up of a bunch of outer-ring northern suburbs, which are much more Democratic than the southern ones. Not slam-dunk Democratic, but Republicans would have a hard time winning here, so outside of a wave it's Safe D.

MA-13 (tan) - 67% W, 21% H; 58% Obama - 41% McCain. Made up of NH border towns plus Lawrence and Lowell. Despite having two big cities, it could be somewhat competitive, so it's Likely D.

MA-14 (gold) - 82% W, 10% H; 60% Obama - 38% McCain. Comprised of the North Shore, plus some urban satellites of Boston. Oddly, it's got less major cities than MA-13, yet it's more Democratic, and it's probably Safe D.

So, there are 12 Democratic-leaning districts and 2 Republican-leaning districts.

[JerryArkansas]

A quick map I did of Arkansas


The three district that I'll note are the 1st, 2nd, and 4th

The 1st was a 54.5% McCain win, while Trump was able to increase it to just over 60%.

The 2nd was a rare Obama district, going to him by just .2%, and Clinton was able to increase the margin to over 2.5%.

The 4th was a 56.4% win for McCain, and interestingly Trump was only able to get that up to 58.9% last year.

[publicunofficial]

Did some simple ones:

Delaware:

1st is an ultra Safe D seat. Nearly 70% Obama. The 2nd only narrowly went for Obama in 2008, and  was a Romney/Trump seat after that. Likely/Safe R.

Hawaii:


The 3rd district (Purple) contains all the non-Oahu islands as well as Oahu's north shore. The 1st (blue) contains all of Honolulu and it's immediate suburbs. The rest of Oahu, from Pearl Harbor to Kailua, is in the 2nd. The 1st and 3rd are over 70% Obama, while the 2nd is only 65% Obama.

Montana:


The western district went for Obama by a hair in 2008, and has been carried by Jon Tester, Steve Bullock, ect in their victories. Very competitive. The eastern district is much more Republican leaning.

North Dakota:


The eastern district went narrowly for Obama in 2008, but given the trends in the Dakotas both seats would probably be Safe R.

South Dakota:


The blue district is slightly to the left of the state as a whole, but not by much. Safe R for both.


I'll try to do a Washington one but it will almost certainly be an ugly map.

[Miles]

CD1
TRUMP - 65.0%
CLINTON - 27.8%

JUSTICE - 46.0%
COLE - 43.9%

CD2
TRUMP - 69.5%
CLINTON - 24.8%

COLE - 49.3%
JUSTICE - 41.9%

CD3
TRUMP - 65.0%
CLINTON - 29.0%

JUSTICE - 54.9%
COLE - 36.4%

CD4
TRUMP - 72.5%
CLINTON - 22.5%

JUSTICE - 53.9%
COLE - 39.4%

[Miles]

CD1 - 64/35 Obama, SAFE D (50.7% BVAP)
CD2 - 60/40 McCain, SAFE R
CD3 - 57/42 M, SAFE R
CD4 - 56/44 M, SAFE R
CD5 - 53/46 M, TILT/LEAN R, though McIntyre would have won this.
CD6 - 58/41 O, SAFE D
CD7 - 57/42 M, SAFE R
CD8 - 55/44 O, LIKELY D
CD9 - 59/40 O, SAFE D
CD10 - 70/29 O, SAFE D
CD11- 51/48 M, LEAN R, Richard Moore could maybe hold it for the Dems.
CD12 - 61/38 O, SAFE D
CD13 - 50/49 O, TOSSUP, can see this seat flipping D in Pres years, R in midterms.
CD14 - 64/35 M, SAFE R
CD15 - 54/45 M, SAFE R, though HRC likely improved a lot here.
CD16 - 62/37 M, SAFE R
CD17 - 78/22 O, SAFE D
CD18 - 59/40 M, SAFE R
CD19 - 64/35 M, SAFE R
CD20 - 59/40 M SAFE R
CD21 - 50/48.5 O, TOSSUP, but Shuler wouldn't have retired.

[publicunofficial]

Oregon:



1 (Blue) - 57/40 McCain - Safe R
2 (Green) - 80/17 Obama - Safe D
3 (Purple) - 52/44 McCain - Safe R
4 (Red) - 62/35 Obama - Safe D
5 (Yellow) - 49/48 Obama - Likely R
6 (Cyan) - 54/43 Obama - Likely D (Heavy pro-Trump swing here)
7 (Grey) - 53/45 Obama - Lean D
8 (Black) - 68/29 Obama - Safe D


Alaska:


1 (Blue) - 60/37 McCain
2 (Green) - 59/38 McCain

[Lachi]

Oklahoma:

1: McCain 72.8-27.2
2: Obama 50.5-49.5
3: McCain 69.8-30.2
4: McCain 66.1-33.9
5: McCain 69.2-30.8
6: McCain 58.2-41.8
7: McCain 70-30
8: McCain 67.9-32.1

All would probably be safe R nowdays

CONNECTICUT

1: Obama 58.3-41.1
2: Obama 60.1-39.1
3: Obama 51.9-46.6
4: Obama 66.1-32.8
5: Obama 71.6-27.3
6: Obama 60.0-38.8
7: Obama 58.7-39.8
8: Obama 60.5-38.2
Anyone have any objections to the maps?

Also, how can I make this program run more smoothly, seriously, I can't load anything bigger than South Carolina before it starts to crap itself.

[publicunofficial]

Also, how can I make this program run more smoothly, seriously, I can't load anything bigger than South Carolina before it starts to crap itself.

Putting the map setting on "blank" and sliding the opacity slider all the way to the right kind of helps. Other than that, get a better computer.

[publicunofficial]

Kansas:


Obama and Clinton both carried the Kansas City based district. It's not super safe D but I doubt any Republican wins it. The green and teal districts went narrowly for McCain, Dems might have won the recent special election in the Wichita seat. All other districts were over 60% Republican.

Nebraska:


The Omaha seat is Lean/Likely D. The Lincoln seat is 52/48 McCain, could fall in a wave. The red seat was over 60% McCain, and the purple seat over 70% McCain.

[Gass3268]

Oklahoma:

1: McCain 72.8-27.2
2: Obama 50.5-49.5
3: McCain 69.8-30.2
4: McCain 66.1-33.9
5: McCain 69.2-30.8
6: McCain 58.2-41.8
7: McCain 70-30
8: McCain 67.9-32.1

All would probably be safe R nowdays

CONNECTICUT

1: Obama 58.3-41.1
2: Obama 60.1-39.1
3: Obama 51.9-46.6
4: Obama 66.1-32.8
5: Obama 71.6-27.3
6: Obama 60.0-38.8
7: Obama 58.7-39.8
8: Obama 60.5-38.2
Anyone have any objections to the maps?

Also, how can I make this program run more smoothly, seriously, I can't load anything bigger than South Carolina before it starts to crap itself.

That OKC district would/could definitely elect a Democrat.

[publicunofficial]

Nevada:



All four Vegas districts are over 55% Obama. The Reno district went 54/43 Obama in 2008, would probably be a competitive toss-up district. The green district is Safe R.

Idaho:


1 (Blue) - 61/36 McCain
2 (Green) - 54/43 McCain
3 (Purple) - 69/27 McCain

[publicunofficial]

Finally did a Washington map that turned out decent looking.




1 (Bellevue/Bothell) - 64/34 Obama Safe D
2 (Seattle) - 84/13 Obama Safe D
3 (Kent/Federal Way) - 63/34 Obama Safe D
4 (Spokane) - 48.8/48.7 Obama (300 vote difference) Lean R
5 (Tri-Cities) - 59/38 McCain Safe R
6 (Shoreline/Edmonds) - 73/24 Safe D
7 (Auburn/Issaquah) - 54/43 Obama Lean D
8 (Tacoma) - 57/40 Obama Safe D
9 (Olympia) - 56/41 Obama Safe D
10 (Kitsap/Olympic Peninsulas) - 55/42 Obama Likely D
11 (Bellingham/Mount Vernon) - 55/42 Obama Likely
12 (Yakima/Aberdeen) - 49/48 McCain Likely R
13 (Everett) - 56/41 Obama Safe D
14 (Vancouver) - 51/46 Obama Toss-Up
15 (Wenatchee/Moses Lake) - 56/41 McCain Safe R

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

1: Swing/Lean D
2: Swing
3: Likely D
4: Safe D
5: Safe D
6: Safe R
7: Likely D for Peterson, Lean R otherwise
8: Safe D
9: Safe R
10: Lean R
11: Safe R
12: Likely/Safe R
My guesses anyway.

[Hoosier_Nick]

How do you guys make these? I went to http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/launchapp.html since I figured this is where it is, and it told me to download some application, which I did. But it still says I need to download it. Is that even where you guys are making these?

[Miles]

^ Make sure you open it in a non-Chrome browser.


If I had a free hand at LA. 10 seats could be split 5-5:



1) 52/46 MCCAIN, 54/46 DEM. Should elect a Democrat; Landrieu likely carried it in 2014.
2) 71/27 OBAMA, 75/25 DEM. Just over 50% BVAP.
3) 76/22 MCCAIN, 70/30 REP
4) 77/21 MCCAIN, 70/30 REP
5) 58/41 OBAMA, 61/39 DEM, Plurality BVAP, 47.6% to 45.8% white.
6) 50/48 OBAMA, 55/45 DEM, Good for a Blue Dog, or a black Dem like Sanford Bishop. 51% white, 45% black VAP. Could shore this up a few points by going into Alexandria.
7) 68/30 MCCAIN, 64/36 REP
8 ) 66/32 MCCAIN, 61/38 REP
9) 73/26 MCCAIN, 69/31 REP
10) 54.6/44.5 MCCAIN, 50.6/49.4 REP, Republicans are favored, but not completely safe.

[Miles]

VA - I tried to be pretty fair:

[Starpaul20]

Here's a 19-seat New Jersey. No township splits:


Close up of South Jersey:


Close up of North Jersey:


2008 Prez numbers:

(I didn't use any partisan numbers when drawing if you're wondering).

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

[Adam Griffin]

12 districts carried by McCain and 9 districts carried by Obama; 15 districts with avg GOP majorities and 6 with avg DEM majorities.

Trump carried 11 and Clinton carried 10. Clinton picks up CD19 and holds CD9 by roughly the same margin as '08. CD10 would be really close (even closer than '08) but some back-of-the-napkin calculations suggest Clinton still ekes out a win of about a quarter-to-a-half point.

Five 48-54% BVAP districts (CDs 6, 14, 15, 16 & 18); a sixth (CD 17) is 45.8% BVAP compared to 42.2% WVAP but is likely a bit blacker as of today.

CDs 9 & 10 (two of the three with Obama wins but avg GOP majorities) would be very tight fights and might lean by default to the GOP, but still very competitive. CD20 drawn over that area today would be pretty safely D at the congressional level during presidential years but competitive in midterms (ground zero for Latino/Asian low-propensity voters). It wouldn't surprise me if Clinton carried it by more than 20 points.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Just as a reference, I've colored the states that have a map done for them now or only have one CD in red:

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

[DPKdebator]

Here's Maine:

(sorry the image is zoomed, if I tried to show the whole thing the borders looked funny)

ME-01 (blue): 63-35.3 Obama-McCain. This CD includes coastal York, Cumberland, and Saghadoc Counties, an area which includes Portland. Basically North Massachusetts, so Safe D.

ME-02 (green): 53.2-44.7 Obama-McCain. This CD includes Maine's interior lands, and the largest city is Bangor. Pretty analogous to the current ME-02, and is definitely Trump's strongest CD (certainly doing better since his strongest counties are part of it). Probably Safe R (except in a wave year).

ME-03 (purple): 56.4-41.6 Obama-McCain. This CD spreads from Lewiston and Auburn to the eastern Canadian border, and includes the capital of Augusta. This would be an ancestrally Democratic CD (Washington County, which is ancestrally Republican, has a very small population) that Trump would do very well in, and could probably vote Republican in a congressional election. Tossup.

Also, updated the reference map:

[Gass3268]

Just as a reference, I've colored the states that have a map done for them now or only have one CD in red:

This map would probably be illegal. There would probably need to be at least 2, maybe 3 African America opportunity districts.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This map would probably be illegal. There would probably need to be at least 2, maybe 3 African America opportunity districts.

Where would I realistically get a second plurality AA district?