GA-06 Predictions Thread (June 20)

[Cactus Jack]

I will have to make a last minute change here because the shooting will deliver this election to Handel ...

Alright, seriously, why on Earth do people actually believe this narrative? It's inexplicable and frankly sick.

[Tender Branson]

I will have to make a last minute change here because the shooting will deliver this election to Handel ...

Alright, seriously, why on Earth do people actually believe this narrative? It's inexplicable and frankly sick.

Because it will likely drive many Handel-voters to the polls who previously said to themselves they were not voting.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I will have to make a last minute change here because the shooting will deliver this election to Handel ...

Alright, seriously, why on Earth do people actually believe this narrative? It's inexplicable and frankly sick.

Because it will likely drive many Handel-voters to the polls who previously said to themselves they were not voting.

If Ossoff was going to win solely because of grumpy conservative jfern-like people sitting on their hands, then he almost certainly would've been a one-term rental anyway.

LOL at the idea that I'm a conservative who will suddenly vote Republican because of some shooting.

[Pericles]

Ossoff will win and it won't be that close, he'll get 51% or more.

[BuckeyeNut]

Handel by as much as 3%.

If you set your expectations low, they're always exceeded!

[Sir Mohamed]

I don't like to say it, but I have a feeling Handel will win.

✓ Karen Handel: 51.8%
Jon Ossoff: 48.2%

[Devout Centrist]

Gonna be bold and say decisive, but not huge, Ossoff victory

[kyc0705]

I will have to make a last minute change here because the shooting will deliver this election to Handel

[Devout Centrist]

I will have to make a last minute change here because the shooting will deliver this election to Handel.

Just like how Manchester delivered the Conservatives a win on June 8th

[VPH]

Ossoff - 50.3%
Handel - 49.7%

Handel - 51%
Ossoff - 49%

[The_Doctor]

Let me get this straight. No news really emerged in this race but because you all saw a Gandel surge in polling you think she'll win despite trailing all throughout the race?

I could well be wrong but this hitting the panic button is insane.

[kyc0705]

Ossoff 51, Handel 49.

It's a margin-of-error race, but if Handel pulls it off, it's certainly not going to be because Steve Scalise got shot.

[libertpaulian]

I will have to make a last minute change here because the shooting will deliver this election to Handel.

Just like how Manchester delivered the Conservatives a win on June 8th

Political culture is different between that of Europe and the USA.

[Progressive]

Ossoff   50.4%
Handel 49.6%

[Xing]

Let me get this straight. No news really emerged in this race but because you all saw a Gandel surge in polling you think she'll win despite trailing all throughout the race?

I could well be wrong but this hitting the panic button is insane.

Post Traumatic Trump Disorder is real.

[Mr. Smith]

Let me get this straight. No news really emerged in this race but because you all saw a Gandel surge in polling you think she'll win despite trailing all throughout the race?

I could well be wrong but this hitting the panic button is insane.

I've consistently had Handel ahead.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Ossoff 51
Handel 49

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, my prediction for now (will probably update it before election day):

51.5% Ossoff (D)
48.5% Handel (R)

Lean D.

Same prediction here. That being said, I have had a gut feeling for the past few days that we are going to be shocked tonight in some way, shape, or form...

[Gass3268]

I've switched my prediction back and forth today, but I'm now thinking a narrow Ossoff win, probably in recount territory.

Ossoff 50.3%
Handel 49.7%

[OneJ]

50.4% - Ossoff
49.6% - Handel

[Crumpets]

Going with my gut and saying Ossoff. The only Democrat who consistantly led in polls as much as he has and lost that I can think of is Kay Hagen, and 2017 does not feel like 2014.

Ossoff 50.3
Handel 49.7

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

50.4% - Ossoff
49.6% - Handel

[Mr. Smith]

Ossof Handel around 50.5-51%

I think this is gonna be my final prediction. I'm a little more comfortable again with being generous to Ossoff.

[SATW]

Handel: 51.3%
Ossoff: 48.7%

[The_Doctor]

Let me get this straight. No news really emerged in this race but because you all saw a Gandel surge in polling you think she'll win despite trailing all throughout the race?

I could well be wrong but this hitting the panic button is insane.

I've consistently had Handel ahead.

I'm not talking about you. I'm talking about everyone who flocked here, changed their prediction, despite there being no directly impacting news that dropped that would change the trajectory of the race.¹ We don't even have a Montana type issue here.

What I don't grasp is why people think the Never Trumpers and Reluctant Trumpers who backed Ossoff would suddenly abandon him for Handel

Post Traumatic Trump Disorder is real.

Pretty much. Everyone freaked over Montana, thought it was a game changer, and when Pianaforte won, now everyone's gun shy. It's like that hot stock that didn't pan out and now everyone's looking at Ossoff like he's possibly that stock that didn't work out.

This is insane investor psychology. This is not even if I'm right or wrong.

It's an insane methodology to approach the specials like this. You can't say "Oh, because Montana was blown, GA 06 tightening means it'll be blown too!" You have to evaluate each special election based on the district, the likely swing from the 2016 results and past PVI, and a host of other variables.

IT IS STILL a perfectly reasonable assumption to think 53% based on 1. Georgia's 6th being among the most educated areas in the nation 2. The self-same district contains a large group of voters who has accounted from the 58 - 41% swing from Bush in 2004 in the state to Trump's 50-44% win in 2016.

In particular, it's the very Atlanta suburbs that have accounted for Georgia's march towards the Democratic column. They're powering Georgia's shift.

It's not unreasonable to see Ossoff overperforming his polling again based on these factors. It's why RRH put it as Lean D. It's also why even if Handel wins, it was never unreasonable to say 51-53% Ossoff.

¹Scalise's injury is not this, no. He survived and is likely to survive, and there were no other fatalities.