GA-06 Predictions Thread (June 20)

[MT Treasurer]

Well, I thought it might be time for this.

Anyway, my prediction for now (will probably update it before election day):

51.5% Ossoff (D)
48.5% Handel (R)

Lean D.

It's really not looking good for Handel here.

[hueylong]

Early vote looks good for Ossoff but there are a ton of Republican votes to draw from, including many who did not vote round one. Outcome will largely depend on how effective both campaigns are at getting out the vote. I've heard/read repeatedly that Ossoff has a much better ground game than Handel, and how she's basically devoting her time to fundraising.

I have a feeling a decent amount of the more pro-Trump Republicans who supported candidates like Bob Gray will stay home. I remember reading something from a reporter who was at Gray's party the night of round one. He described how, in a speech full of cheers and applause, when Gray finally endorsed Handel and urged his voters to support her, there were no audible cheers from the audience. They clearly weren't very excited about the prospect. She's definitely distancing herself from Trump while still being careful not to veer too far off in either direction. I wonder how much this neutrality/measured approach will impact her.

[Xing]

Sticking with my prediction of Ossoff winning 52-48, but it's hard to say for sure.

[hueylong]

It would be nothing short of amazing if Ossoff managed to win by 5 points or more. Would be miraculous for Dem morale.

[The Other Castro]

I don't think we can read too much into the early vote one way or the other, but at the end of the day I think Ossoff will win a close race. This should probably finish within 3 points or so either way.

Jon Ossoff - 51%
Karen Handel - 49%

[peterthlee]

Lean D
Ossoff 52-48

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ossoff

[Gass3268]

Ossoff by a 1%

[NewYorkExpress]

Ossoff 53%
Handel 47%

Then again, I was wrong about Quist winning...

[Holmes]

Ossoff 53%
Handel 47%

Then again, I was wrong about Quist winning...

I think that there was just a lot of wishful thinking with MT-AL, and Ossoff will be in such a strong position with early voting that if Handel assaults a reporter before election night, it would actually be campaign ending.

[The Other Castro]

Georgia 6th is not Montana. Both parties knew Gianforte was leading by enough (and wasn't going to lose post-assault), just like both know Georgia is going to be close and that Ossoff maybe has a slight edge.

[Technocracy Timmy]

If Ossof wins this then I'll be hopeful over the idea of Congressman Rohrabacher being defeated come 2018.

[Holmes]

Ossoff 53%
Handel 47%

Then again, I was wrong about Quist winning...

Quist turned out to be an incredibly flawed candidate and Atlas exaggerated the impact of #Assaultgate. Ossoff is a better candidate, has a strong GOTV operation and also outperformed the polling in April. Democratic enthusiasm seems to be very high as well, so I think Lean D is a fair rating at this point.

We're the impacts of the assault overrated, though? How much of the vote was already in by then anyway? Two thirds?

[Heisenberg]

I'd say Ossoff by 1.5%. Anywhere between Handel 0.5 to Ossoff 2.5 is possible, though Handel is not looking good at all.

[Beet]

Quist was running in Montana, which is a different animal. I always thought he was down by 10 until Atlas hype made me change it to 7 (accurate) then the assault to 2 at the last minute. Turns out the DCCC was right. Not to say GA-06 is any less Republican, but it probably is, tbh. This election looks like a 50-50 shot at this point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ossoff 52-48.

[Brittain33]

Ossoff 52-48.

[Confused Democrat]

Handel because nothing ever goes my way.

[KingSweden]

Very narrow Ossoff win

[BuckeyeNut]

Handel because nothing ever goes my way.

[Gass3268]

Handel because nothing ever goes my way.

My gut says this, by brain says Ossoff by 1%.

[Nyvin]

Ossoff 51.5
Handel 48.5

[Hindsight was 2020]

Can we take time to appreciate just how bad a job Handel has done I mean jfc all she is doing is fundraising an filling the airwaves with cringe worthy ads

[Tender Branson]

Ossoff 51.8
Handel 47.7

That's not possible.

[Nyvin]

Ossoff 51.8
Handel 47.7

That's not possible.

oops, you're right.