GA-06 Predictions Thread (June 20)

[The_Doctor]

Maintaining my Ossoff production. Only change is that I had him originally at 51-49% and now after the rough month Republicans have had in May and June (to date) I would say +2 to Ossoff.

Jon Ossoff: 53%
Karen Handel: 47%

Turnout is higher than a normal special.

[The_Doctor]

Maintaining 53-47 Ossoff.

[The_Doctor]

Let me get this straight. No news really emerged in this race but because you all saw a Gandel surge in polling you think she'll win despite trailing all throughout the race?

I could well be wrong but this hitting the panic button is insane.

[The_Doctor]

Let me get this straight. No news really emerged in this race but because you all saw a Gandel surge in polling you think she'll win despite trailing all throughout the race?

I could well be wrong but this hitting the panic button is insane.

I've consistently had Handel ahead.

I'm not talking about you. I'm talking about everyone who flocked here, changed their prediction, despite there being no directly impacting news that dropped that would change the trajectory of the race.¹ We don't even have a Montana type issue here.

What I don't grasp is why people think the Never Trumpers and Reluctant Trumpers who backed Ossoff would suddenly abandon him for Handel

Post Traumatic Trump Disorder is real.

Pretty much. Everyone freaked over Montana, thought it was a game changer, and when Pianaforte won, now everyone's gun shy. It's like that hot stock that didn't pan out and now everyone's looking at Ossoff like he's possibly that stock that didn't work out.

This is insane investor psychology. This is not even if I'm right or wrong.

It's an insane methodology to approach the specials like this. You can't say "Oh, because Montana was blown, GA 06 tightening means it'll be blown too!" You have to evaluate each special election based on the district, the likely swing from the 2016 results and past PVI, and a host of other variables.

IT IS STILL a perfectly reasonable assumption to think 53% based on 1. Georgia's 6th being among the most educated areas in the nation 2. The self-same district contains a large group of voters who has accounted from the 58 - 41% swing from Bush in 2004 in the state to Trump's 50-44% win in 2016.

In particular, it's the very Atlanta suburbs that have accounted for Georgia's march towards the Democratic column. They're powering Georgia's shift.

It's not unreasonable to see Ossoff overperforming his polling again based on these factors. It's why RRH put it as Lean D. It's also why even if Handel wins, it was never unreasonable to say 51-53% Ossoff.

¹Scalise's injury is not this, no. He survived and is likely to survive, and there were no other fatalities.

[The_Doctor]

Was wrong, but I don't think the guess was that bad or the underlying rationale that bad. Polarization is a hell of a drug, and $30 million was a hell of a line to ensure that drug was fed to the electorate. That was the mistake, it seems.