GA-06 Predictions Thread (June 20)

[I’m not Stu]

Well, I thought it might be time for this.

Anyway, my prediction for now (will probably update it before election day):

51.5% Ossoff (D)
48.5% Handel (R)

Lean D.

It's really not looking good for Handel here.

I think Handel wins.

[I’m not Stu]

Ossoff by .5, but he's no where near as big a favorite as the 70% in the poll suggests. MT-AL indicates to me that these red districts are just tough for the Democrats, polls or no.

Quist was not a good candidate and the body slam news broke out too late in the campaign for it to skew results at all.

KS-04 was an impressive swing but a bridge to far for Democrats to overcome. But that race proves some points that Midwestern districts may be easier for Democrats, especially ones with high single digit R PVI's.

Early voting before the body slam also hurt Quist's chance.

[I’m not Stu]

It's R+6. I would guess Handel wins with about 52%.