VA/NJ Gubernatorial Primary Prediction Thread

[heatcharger]

So the NJ gubernatorial primary is tomorrow, and it's been mostly a snoozefest compared to the VA primaries. That being said, here are my predictions:

NJ: D Primary

Murphy 53%
Wisniewski 25%
Johnson 12%
Others 10%

NJ: R Primary

Guadagno 49%
Ciattarelli 38%
Others 13%

Okay so now to the important stuff next week in Virginia. In recent days I've been growing sour on Northam's chances as I think Perriello is making meaningful inroads not only in NoVA but also the AA community down South. He's been expanding outside his comfort zone and has been running good ads. If that's truly the case, I think that seriously narrows Northam's path to victory. Meanwhile, Gillespie has the GOP nomination locked up. Unless I see some big polling shift in the next week, I'm going with this:


VA: D Primary

Perriello 51%
Northam 49%

VA: R Primary

Gillespie 54%
Stewart 27%
Wagner 19%

I'm gonna make some makeshift predictions in the Lt. Gov races as well, but these could be way off:

VA-LG: D Primary

Fairfax 41%
Rossi 30%
Platt 29%

VA-LG: R Primary

Reeves 38%
Vogel 33%
Davis 29%

Next Tuesday is going to be one of the more interesting election nights in Virginia. As usual, Fairfax County will report at a glacial pace compared to the rest of the state, though the presidential primary last year got counted pretty fast. The thing is, the Northam-Perriello race isn't going to be like a GE where when the Democrat takes the lead, it's over. Both candidates are very competitive in NoVA, so the lead might go back and forth if the election is as close as I envision.

Anyways, make predictions y'all.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

NJ: D Primary
Murphy 59%
Wisniewski 20%
Johnson 15%
Others 6%


NJ: R Primary
Guadagno 51%
Ciattarelli 40%
Others 9%

VA: D Primary

Northam  53%
Perriello 47%

VA: R Primary

Gillespie 57%
Stewart 25%
Wagner 18%

[MT Treasurer]

NJ: D Primary
Murphy 54%
Wisniewski 21%
Johnson 19%
Others 6%


NJ: R Primary
Guadagno 51%
Ciattarelli 39%
Others 10%

VA: D Primary

Northam 55%
Perriello 45%

VA: R Primary

Gillespie 55%
Stewart 25%
Wagner 20%

[The Other Castro]

NJ
Murphy 49%
Johnson 22%
Wisniewski 20%
Others 9%

Guadagno 55%
Ciattarelli 33%
Others 12%

VA
Northam 54%
Perriello 46%

Gillespie 54%
Stewart 24%
Wagner 22%

[Suburbia]

New Jersey

New Jersey Democrats:
Murphy 50%
Johnson 23%
Wisniewski 10%
Brennan 7%
Lesniak 7%

New Jersey Republicans:
Guadagno 52%
Ciattarelli 40%
Others 9%

Watch out for Hirsh Singh, he could be a rising star in the NJGOP, he is a diverse man in a old, white, WASPY Northeastern party.

http://singhfornewjersey.com/
I'll post VA predictions this weekend.

[LabourJersey]

New Jersey

New Jersey Democrats:
Murphy 52%
Johnson 33%
Wisniewski 20%
Brennan 11%
Lesniak 7%
Others 5%

New Jersey Republicans:
Guadagno 52%
Ciattarelli 40%
Singh 10%
Rogers 4%
Rullo 3%
Others 2%

I'll post VA predictions this weekend.

Bronz your totals add up to 128% and 111%, respectively.

[Kevin]

VA Democratic Primary
Perriello-51%
Northam-47/48%

VA Republican Primary
Gillespie-51%
Stewart-20%
Wagner-10%

Dem LG
Fairfax-42%
Platt-36%
Rossi-11%

GOP LG
Vogel-42%
Reeves-30%
Davis-17%

Haven't really been following  Jersey so can't comment there.

Although in VA there has been a strong request for Democratic absentee ballots.
http://wjla.com/news/local/absentee-ballot-requests-for-va-democratic-primary-twice-as-high-as-for-gop

[Suburbia]

New Jersey

New Jersey Democrats:
Murphy 52%
Johnson 33%
Wisniewski 20%
Brennan 11%
Lesniak 7%
Others 5%

New Jersey Republicans:
Guadagno 52%
Ciattarelli 40%
Singh 10%
Rogers 4%
Rullo 3%
Others 2%

I'll post VA predictions this weekend.

Bronz your totals add up to 128% and 111%, respectively.

Sorry, I'm not so great in math. I'll fix it.

[SoLongAtlas]

NJ
Murphy above 50%

VA
Northam by high single digits. Perriello is a good guy but fairly unknown, Northam has incumbency and is well known along the shore and NoVA. Perriello's central base, VA-5 has low turnout and is mostly rural, except for Charlottesville, he won't max out C'Ville imo.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Northam  52%
Perriello   48%

Gillespie  45%
Stewart   32%
Wagner   23%

[heatcharger]

My county map prediction:



Fairfax will put Perriello over the top by the end of the night.

[Alabama_Indy10]

VA: D Primary
Northam - 53%
Perriello - 47%

VA: R Primary
Gillespie - 56%
Stewart - 24%
Wagner - 20%

[PragmaticPopulist]

My county map prediction:



Fairfax will put Perriello over the top by the end of the night.

I'd think Loudoun would be friendlier territory for Perriello and Fairfax would be better for Northam. Fairfax is almost completely suburban, while Loudoun has a rural western portion.

[GlobeSoc]

My county map prediction:



Fairfax will put Perriello over the top by the end of the night.

I think that Perriello is quite a bit stronger in rural black areas and a small bit weaker in NoVa, but a narrrow(51%-54%) Perriello win seems right.

[heatcharger]

My county map prediction:



Fairfax will put Perriello over the top by the end of the night.

I'd think Loudoun would be friendlier territory for Perriello and Fairfax would be better for Northam. Fairfax is almost completely suburban, while Loudoun has a rural western portion.

Yeah, my Fairfax and Loudoun guesses are purely based on anecdotal evidence, and they both could go either way. My Clinton-supporting mom and her friend told me they were voting for Perriello while I saw some Northam yard signs when I drove through Ashburn recently. I feel like the mega-wealthy and more proportionally Indian and Korean that live in Eastern Loudoun and the Great Falls area will go more towards Northam, while the young professional crowd that's in and around Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, etc. will go to Perriello.

[Suburbia]

Virginia Democrats:

Northam 52%
Perriello 46%


Virginia Republicans:

Ed Gillespie 51%
Corey Stewart 33%
Frank Wagner 19%

[Xing]

Murphy and Guadagno will win landslide victories in their respective primaries. I haven't been following that race closely enough to make a more detailed prediction.

VA Dem primary
Northam - 53%
Periello - 47%

VA Rep primary
Gillespie - 54%
Stewart - 26%
Wagner - 20%

[PragmaticPopulist]

Murphy and Guadagno will win landslide victories in their respective primaries. I haven't been following that race closely enough to make a more detailed prediction.

NJ primaries already happened. Here are the results.

[JMT]

VA Gubernatorial Primary:

Republican:
Gillespie:  52%
Stewart:  36%
Wagner:  12%

Democrat:
Perriello: 51.5%
Northam: 48.5%

[heatcharger]

VA: R Primary

Gillespie 54%
Stewart 27%
Wagner 19%

Gonna adjust this based on the abysmal turnout in areas Gillespie should be running up the score:

Gillespie 48%
Stewart 39%
Wagner 13%

[Xing]

Murphy and Guadagno will win landslide victories in their respective primaries. I haven't been following that race closely enough to make a more detailed prediction.

NJ primaries already happened. Here are the results.

Well, I guess that shows just how closely I followed that race...

Anyway, I'm gonna change my prediction very slightly.

VA D
Northam - 52%
Periello - 48%

VA R
Gillespie - 49%
Stewart - 33%
Wagner - 18%

[Wells]

D
Northam 50.2%
Perriello 49.8%

R
Gillespie 45%
Stewart 39%
Wagner 16%

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Northam  52%
Perriello   48%

Gillespie  45%
Stewart   32%
Wagner   23%

geographically:

Northam will win by big margins in Hampton Roads and Eastern Shore, and win Richmond. Perriello will win Central VA and Shenandoah. Southside will be close overall, more Perriello as you move West.  Perriello will win SW for the most part, though with a few counties for Northam (ironically very possibly the ones he lost in the primary 4 years ago, now that he is the establishment candidate).  As for NOVA, I'll leave that to the comments of those most familiar with the area.

Wagner will win Norfolk and VA Beach, and otherwise do decently in Hampton Roads. Stewart will do best in Southside VA, and some other random places. Gillespie will win elsewhere for the most part.