Argentina Legislative Election 2017

[FredLindq]

Regarding dissident peronists.
San Luis PJ dissidents (Saa brothers, ACF, PJ San Louis) works with FPV this year?
La Rioja PJ dissidents ( Menem FyL) is also with FPV?
But San Juan PJ-dissidents (ACF, PyT) is with Cambien

Is Alianza Conoromiso Federal (ACF) dead now?

[FredLindq]

But Menem is going with PJ i.e. FV in order to gwtoa out of jail card? Cambienos won in La Rioja 2015?

And the ACF off San Juan and San Luis is dead?

[FredLindq]

So there are five peronist lists in Buenos Aires province?
Unidad Ciudadana , FPV Kirchernists and Compromiso Federal
•Frente Justicialista, the other Kirchnerista Coalition. Formed by the Partido Justicialista (i.e. the Peronist Party) -but without any real support from most PJ/FPV mayors-, and a bunch of small irrelevant and unknown parties.
            -One list for the primaries will be led by Florencio Randazzo, another by some random dude who works for Ishii (Ishi is a mayor of a Grand Buenos Aires)
•1País. The Massa-Stolbizer (who will both run in one list for the Senate race) alliance, formed by Massa's Frente Renovador, two progressive parties (whoare not a formal part of the coalition), Stolbizer's GEN.
•Frente Unión Federal, a coalition of two small Peronist parties
•Frente Unión por la Justicia Social, formed by non-kirchnerista Peronist parties Celeste y Blanco (the party that ran De Narvaez's campaign in 2011) and Propuesta Federal para el Cambio (an old name of Pro's wing in the Province)

[FredLindq]

Or 6.
Because
•Cambiemos, formed by Pro (Macro's party), UCR,  CC-ARI (Carrió), FE (a small dissident Peronist party led by a labor union leader) i.e. som dissident Peronist elements

What are the opinion polls saying for BA???

[FredLindq]

So 2 senate seats to UC and 1 to Cambieos or 1Pais?

Is it possible to see wich candidates on the Cambienos list that are from UCR, PRO, ARI etc? The same for 1Pais? UNA, GEN etc

[FredLindq]

Thanks!

Do you have this info regarding the senate elections in the other seven provinces?

[FredLindq]

Why is the elections in the Buenos Aires province so close in the senate election but not in the diputados elections? Is Christina so popular??

[FredLindq]

Opinion poll for Cordoba by MyF. Gives UPC (UNA) 29.9%, Juntos por Cordoba (Cambienos) 29.0%, Frente Cordoba Cidudans (FPV) 3.9%.

In 2015 Cambienos got 49.8%, UPC 21.1 % and FPV 18.1%

[FredLindq]

Two new polls for the senate election i Buenos Aires (region)
Axonier
28 June-2 July
1605 interviews
Buenos Aires Province, Senate race
Cristina Kirchner - Jorge Taiana (Unidad Ciudadana) 34,8%
Esteban Bullrich-Gladys González (Cambiemos) 33,2%
Sergio Massa-Margarita Stolbizer (1Pais) 17,7%
Florencio Randazzo-Florencia Casamiquela(Frente Justicialista) 4,6%
Néstor Pitrola - Andrea Datri (FIT) 2,2%

Synopis
1-2 July
1057 interviews
Buenos Aires Province, Senate race
Cristina Kirchner - Jorge Taiana (Unidad Ciudadana) 32,5%
Esteban Bullrich-Gladys González (Cambiemos) 30,1%
Sergio Massa-Margarita Stolbizer (1Pais) 18,0%
Florencio Randazzo-Florencia Casamiquela(Frente Justicialista) 5,6%
Néstor Pitrola - Andrea Datri (FIT) 4,2%

It seems like it will be a very close election between Kirchner and her Unidad Ciudana and Bullrich and Cambiemos. Either Unidad Ciudana gets tow seats and Cambiemos ine or vice versa.

Sergio Massa and his 1Pais seems to be to far away from the main contesters.

[FredLindq]

But for the dpiutados race in Buenos airAs (province) Cambiemos seems to be cruising to victory.

Mangement and Fit
July
Buenos Aires Province, Diputados race
Ocana (Cambiemos) 38,0%
Vallejos (Unidad Ciudadana) 28,3%
Sola (1Pais) 10,4%
Del Cano (FIT) 5,3%
Bucca (Frente Justicialista) 4,0%

[FredLindq]

Also in Buenos Aires City diputados race Vamos Juntos (Cambiemos without UCR) is cruising to victory.You should consider that Evolución is mainly UCR and should be considered part of Cambiemos in the parliament.

Buenos Aires City, diputados race
Mangement and Fit
26 June-3 July
750 interviews
Vamos Juntos Carrió 37,9%
Unidad Porteña Filmus 16,8%
Evolución Lousteau 14,6%
Autodeterminación y Libertad Zamora 6,6%
Avancemos hacia un País Mejor Tombolini 6,5%
Izquierda al Frente Bodart 2,4%
Frente de Izquierda Ramal 2,3%

[FredLindq]

This was a setback for the Justicialist front then or?

Since:
Chaco
Candidatos a Diputados Nacionales
25 de octubre de 2015

Electores Hábiles   864.891      
% de Votantes   77,28      
Partidos / Alianzas Electorales
ALIANZA FRENTE PARA LA VICTORIAa   343.023   53,75   2
ALIANZA CAMBIEMOSb   179.386   28,11   1
ALIANZA UNIDOS POR UNA NUEVA ALTERNATIVAc   92.247   14,46   
DEL OBRERO   12.778   2,00   
ALIANZA PROGRESISTASd   7.845   1,23   
PARTIDO CIUDADANOS A GOBERNAR   2.864   0,45

[FredLindq]

Regarding the two groups in parliament The Justicialista and
The Peronismo para la Victoria. What differs them from FPV and from Massa's peronists?!

[FredLindq]

My projection for the senate elections
PJ-FPV/UC
8 (Includes 2 FUJ from San Luis could be seen as federal peronists Saa Compromiso Federal )
Wins in Buenos Aires, Formosa and San Luis
Second in Juyjuy and Santa Cruz
A loss of 6
 
FPV-allies
CS (FRC) 2
Wins Missiones
No change

Federal Peronism
2 FT (San Juan)
Wins San Luis
No change

1 FJ (LyD, Menem La Rioja),
second in La Rioja
No change

Cambiemos 11
UCR 7,
wins Juyjuy, La Rioja and Santa Cruz
Second in Formosa
Gains 4

PRO 2,
Sgainsecpnd in Buenos Aires and Missiones
Gains  2

PyT (Compromiso San Juan, Ex. PJ) 1,
Second in San Juan
no change

Avanzar (Ex. Compromiso Federal San Luis, Ex. PJ),
Second in San Luis
Gains 1

UNA (Massas federal peronists) 0, no change

Progresistas 0, a loss off 1

Left, FTI-TS, 0 no change

In total
FPV and allies 34
PJ-FPV/UC 29
CS (FRC) FPV-allied 2
FC FPV-allied 2
FP (In reality FC) 1

Cambiemos 25
UCR 12
FCyS, in reality UCR 1
PRO 8
FP-CC-ARI 1
Avanazar (could beens seen as federal peronists) 1
PyT (could be seen as federal peronits)  1
Santa Fe Federal (could beens seen as federal peronists) 1

UNA (Massas federal peronists) 4
MPN 2
UPC 1
CST 1

Federal Peronists 6
Compromiso Federal 2
PJ La Pampa 2
Just 8 October 1
LyD 1

Progresistas 0

Left 0

Others 3
MPF 1
Proyecto Sur 1
Pares, Ex. FPV 1

[FredLindq]

My projection for the diputados elections
PJ-FPV/UC 29
Including 3 AFJ in Sant Fe were i think the Kirchenistas win the primary and 2 from San Juan that could be seen as federal peronists
A loss of 1
 
FPV-allies 5
CS (FRC) 2
No change

FCyS 3
No change

Federal Peronism 16
From Corrientes, Entre Rios, Juyjuy, La Pampa, La Rioja, Mendoza, Tucuman, Salta, and San Luis.

Cambiemos 53
A gain off 14


UNA (Massas federal peronists) 17
A loss off 4

Progresistas 1
Socialist 1
A loss off 6

Left 6
FTI-TS 5
A gain off 1

Others
JSRV (Rio Negro) 1
A gain off 1

[FredLindq]

According to how La Nacions has divided the peronists in Kirchenistas and PJ my predction is:
Kirchenistas 25
Buenos Aires FC, Catamarca and Nequen FUC, Chubut, Rio Negro, and Santa Cruz FPV, Formosa AFPV, Salta FCpV, San Luis FUJ, Santa Fe FJ, Tirrea del Fuego FCyS

PJ non Kirchenistas 20
City of Buenos Aires UP, Catamarca FJPV , Chaco CMM, Corrientes JPM, Entre Rios SER, Juyjuj and Tucuman FJ, La Pama PJ-LP, La Rioja FJR, Mendoza FSM, Salta FUyR, San Juan FT

[FredLindq]

Results PASO
Senate elections
Buenos Aires
Cambiemos 34,2%
UC 34,1
F1Pais 15,6
FJ 5,9
FIT 3,4
My prediction was a won for UC with Camb second. Lets see how this ends in the real elections

Formosa
FPV 54,5%
Cambiemos 35,6
PO (left) 2,3
My prediction FPV win Camb second. Was right.

Juyjuy
Cambiemos 36,3%
FJ 30,5
FR (UNA) 13,3
FIT 11,3
My prediction Camb win and FJ second. Was right. However thought FCV stood there and not FJ so federal peronist second not Kirchenistas

La Rioja
FJ (Menem) 44,6%
Cambiemos 36,1
MNG (Kirchenistas) 7,0
FIT 2,5
My prediction Camb win and FJ second. Was wrong. However Menem has been banned from standing so leta see how this ends.

Missiones
CS 41,0%
Cambiemos 28,6
PAS (Kirchenistas) 11,5
My prediction CS win and Camb second. Was right.

San Juan
FT 49,1%
Cambiemos 30,4
1Pais (UNA) 6,5
My prediction FT win and Camb second. Was right.

San Luis
Cambiemos 57,5%
FUJ 38,5
FIT 1,8

My prediction FUJ win and Camb second. Was wrong. Underestimated the ex governor ex Peronist now Avsnzar.

Santa Cruz
Cambiemos 45,9%
FPV 28,5
FIT 7,7

My prediction Camb win and FPV second. Was right.

In total
Cambiemos 12
PJ/FPV/UC Kirchenistas 5
Kirchenista allies 2
PJ/Peronista federal 5

[FredLindq]

Results PASO
Diputados elections
Cambiemos 59
A gain off 20

PJ/UC/FPV Kirchenistas 27
Buenos Aires FC, Catamarca and Nequen FUC, Chubut, Rio Negro, and Santa Cruz FPV, Cordoba FCC, Formosa AFPV, San Luis FUJ, Santa Fe FJ, Tirrea del Fuego FCyS
A loss off 3

PJ non Kirchenistas 23
Buenos Aires FJ, City of Buenos Aires UP, Catamarca FJPV , Chaco CMM, Corrientes JPM, Entre Rios SER, Juyjuj and Tucuman FJ, La Pama PJ-LP, La Rioja FJR, Mendoza FSM, Salta FUyR, San Juan FT
 
FPV-allies 5
CS (FRC) 2
No change

FCyS 3
No change

UNA (Massas federal peronism) 12
A loss off 9

Progresistas 1
Socialists  1
A loss off 6

Left 0
FTI-TS 0
A loss off 5

Others 0
JSRV (Rio Negro) 0 but is close