Argentina Legislative Election 2017

[sb95]

It's remarkable that the "Frente Para la Victoria" (FPV) label has been ruled out. Now the Justicialist and/or Kirchnerist alliances have different names in every district: "Unidad Ciudadana", "Unidad Porteña", "Justicialist Front", etcetera. Is that a symptom of disintegration?

Hi, i'm new in the forum. I think that makes more visible the differences that existed in the kichnerista coalition, especially since the reelection of Cristina where the "left-wing populist" faction gained spaces and protagonism in government. Since they lost in 2015, the more traditional justicialist party, represented mainly by governors, wants to regain power in the party. What i'm trying to say is that power now has moved from what Cristina or the progressive-populist faction wanted to local leaders in the respective provinces. Normally, deputies & senators responds to governors and their demands. However even if the FPV label fades away, the majority of kirchnerists are still in coalition with PJ in the majority of the provinces, they just won't get the top places on the lists that easily anymore. The PJ is divided now with no clear leader, but Cristina retains a strong political capital, she will probably stand in this election and win. In that scenario, she could negotiate a new coalition with PJ for the 2019 elections, although it's going to be quite complicated.

[sb95]

Hi, i'm new in the forum

Hi! Welcome and thanks for the reply. It makes sense. Are you from Argentina?

Yes

[sb95]

First of all, sorry if my english is not understood haha.

As for the patterns, with due caution, I would say that vote may reflect socioeconomic and geographic (rural/urban) cleavages. The poorer sections of the population, as well the peripheral and/or deprived areas supported the Kirchners in previous elections. However, race or ethnicity can hardly be considered a factor per se when you consider the structure of Argentinian demographics. According to official statistics 90% of the population is "white", 8.5% "mestizo" and 1.5% "amerindian".

Basically this. Differences in voting patterns between provinces has to do basically with socioeconomic factors that has existed since the integration of argentine economy to the global economy. As other latin american countries, economies were driven by the export of commodity products, basically one at first called "monocultivo" (e.g. coffee in brazil, sugarcane in cuba, salitre in chile then copper). In the case of Argentina cereals and then meat. The only region suitable for agricultural production of this commodities was the center region (pampas), that explains why european immigration was mainly concentrated there. Very few inmigrants went to other areas (in contrast with North America), specially to the northern provinces. This also happened in Brazil, as you see, european immigration was basically in the south, specially Sao Paulo state, the center of coffee production. The majority of the northern provinces have remained poor since then, in contrast with the more richer provinces in the center region.

Talking about race is problematic, since the national statistics agency (INDEC) has never asked about ethnicity. When you see some research that says that argentinians are 90% european, they are talking about genetics. The majority of the population is either descendant of europeans or has "mixed ethnicity" between european-aboriginal population. That's why there are so many people with "european genes" but doesn't mean that 90% of the population is white. Ethnicity doesn't have the relevance that is has in the US for example, talking sociologically and politically. There is no "white" identitity as someone would say it "exists" in the US. I don't think it's a relevant factor, although it's true that people with darker skin are poorer, and you have more possibilities being white due to racism.

Returning to map. Macri's strongest areas correspond to the cities of Buenos Aires and Córdoba, the Humid Pampa (rural sections of Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, Córdoba and Entre Ríos) and part of the semiarid Cuyo region (Mendoza). It could be said that the PRO has largely replaced the UCR as the party of the urban middle classes. Also, the Humid Pampa is the richest agricultural region of the country.

As i said before, this was and is the richest region of the country, and where the majority of european immigrants settled. Because of being the richest, it also contains the biggest share of middle class voters. Culturally and politically middle class voters tend to be anti-peronist. Historically this regions were very competitive for the UCR. In northern provinces PJ is quite hegemonic, non-peronist parties are more competitive in urban areas, rather than in rural areas. This is paradigmatic maybe for european observers because normally conservative parties dominate in rural areas, and left-wing parties dominate in urban areas. As you see in the map, Macri won in the historical UCR districts (Pampas region, Mendoza + big urban centers in northern provinces).
However, it's difficult to delineate historical elections with current elections in some points due to the destruction of the political party system since 2001. UCR lost it's legitimacy as a party of power, PJ it's divided and politics have become extremely based on the popularity of political figures, rather than ideologies. This explains the Massa phenomenon.

[sb95]

Talking about race is problematic, since the national statistics agency (INDEC) has never asked about ethnicity. When you see some research that says that argentinians are 90% european, they are talking about genetics. The majority of the population is either descendant of europeans or has "mixed ethnicity" between european-aboriginal population. That's why there are so many people with "european genes" but doesn't mean that 90% of the population is white. Ethnicity doesn't have the relevance that is has in the US for example, talking sociologically and politically. There is no "white" identitity as someone would say it "exists" in the US. I don't think it's a relevant factor, although it's true that people with darker skin are poorer, and you have more possibilities being white due to racism.

If its not a factor in Argentina I can understand that and I know that the 'racial classification' involve a lot more blurred lines than that of the United States and that these do not automatically equate to cultural identities. In Peru and Bolivia the Spanish speaking "Mestizos" who vote largely for the right are not much less "indian" genetically than the Indigenous language speaking communities who vote largely for the left but the cultural differences clearly impact voting behaviour.

You mention that in Argentina as elsewhere in Latin America "darker" people are likely to be poorer and "whiter" people more likely to be middle class and it makes me suspect that when in countries like Chile the left speak more of indigenous rights and the right speak more of "nuestra tradición  cristiana e hispánica" that they are making points with appeals to each of the two sides of Hispanic American cultural identity. If that's not an issue in Argentina then that's fine, I was just curious.

Yes, i agree with you. The white argentina myth and the idea that the country was built by european immigrants it's a vision that was constructed by the liberal-conservative regime from the 19th century and it stills persists. That doesn't mean that european immigration it's not  important in our culture, but other components of our culture related to our amerindian roots are somehow invisible due to this idea of a "european country in the south america" which is obviously false. Also Indigenous politics it's not as relevant as in Chile, Peru or Bolivia for example, it's rare to hear politicians talking about this topic. There is no big indigenous political /social movement neither.

[sb95]

Regarding dissident peronists.
San Luis PJ dissidents (Saa brothers, ACF, PJ San Louis) works with FPV this year?
Is Alianza Conoromiso Federal (ACF) dead now?

Yes, the kirchnerist PJ wing in San Luis is now under the Saa Brothers ticket. But this is not a ideological coincidence between them, it's just to not lose power in San Luis. The ex-governor (Poggi) is now going under the Cambiemos ticket and it's very competitive. Also, the provincial government is having a bad relationship with the national government. I read that in exchange of this support, they will finance part of Cristina's campaign in BA province. But maybe is just a rumour.

La Rioja PJ dissidents ( Menem FyL) is also with FPV?But San Juan PJ-dissidents (ACF, PyT) is with Cambien

The PJ dissidents are basically local leaders, of local factions, they are not really organized on federal level, for some of them is more beneficial going with Cambiemos others under FPV. It's not really about ideologies sadly, it's more about not losing their seat or there political power.

[sb95]

But Menem is going with PJ i.e. FV in order to gwtoa out of jail card? Cambienos won in La Rioja 2015?

Sadly Yes. And to the 2 question yes, Cambiemos won in 2015, but the PJ is competitive in La Rioja, we'll see the results.

And the ACF off San Juan and San Luis is dead?

In San Juan i think they were quite irrelevant, his main political figure Basualdo, is now on Cambiemos, he was with Massa before. In San Luis is not dead, they are in government, the thing is that the ACF is not really a party is a coalition of parties, were the PJ is part of.

[sb95]

Regarding dissident peronists.
San Luis PJ dissidents (Saa brothers, ACF, PJ San Louis) works with FPV this year?
Is Alianza Conoromiso Federal (ACF) dead now?

Yes, the kirchnerist PJ wing in San Luis is now under the Saa Brothers ticket. But this is not a ideological coincidence between them, it's just to not lose power in San Luis. The ex-governor (Poggi) is now going under the Cambiemos ticket and it's very competitive. Also, the provincial government is having a bad relationship with the national government. I read that in exchange of this support, they will finance part of Cristina's campaign in BA province. But maybe is just a rumour.

La Rioja PJ dissidents ( Menem FyL) is also with FPV?But San Juan PJ-dissidents (ACF, PyT) is with Cambien

The PJ dissidents are basically local leaders, of local factions, they are not really organized on federal level, for some of them is more beneficial going with Cambiemos others under FPV. It's not really about ideologies sadly, it's more about not losing their seat or there political power.

I've noticed that Party structures in Argentina (as in several other Latin American countries) is very decentralized and federalist. Is there any parties that try to organise along a more centralised nationwide model of political party?

The UCR is more organic as we say in spanish. More centralised nationwide as you said before, but it also has strong political figures that decide the candidates and stuff like in other parties, specially in the more caudillo-style type of provinces. But as you said before, party structures are very decentralized and very weak due to the elections being based on popularity of the candidates rather than ideology

[sb95]

According to Cambiemos (government) they won Entre Rios, Santa Cruz, Mendoza, Buenos Aires City, and Jujuy and they are optimist of their result in Buenos Aires Province. This are all opinions based on exit polls, but no real results until 9:00 pm (in two hours).

[sb95]

I can't post the link, but it's this: resultados.gob.ar/escrutinio/dat01/DDN01999A.htm
For Buenos Aires City -Deputies-: (47,70% of all votes)
Carrio (Cambiemos) - 48,32%
Filmus (UP) - 21,42%
Lousteau (ECO) - 13,27%
Tombolini (1Pais) - 4,09%
Ramal (FIT) - 3,86%
Others - 8,01%

[sb95]

I'm sad to say, but unless Macri massively collapses in next 2 years, CFK presidential chances are very weak. Her only chance is to reunite all of Peronist factions (Massa, De La Sota, Randazzo, Rodriguez Saa brothers). And I'm surprised that historic Partido Intransigente appeared well at Mendoza.

Yeah i don't get what happen in Mendoza with the PI, maybe some social democrat/progressive group of politians revive the party just locally.
About Cristina, yes even if she wins the senate race (which is possible because the 5% of votes that are still to be counted were in the greater buenos aires region where she won by a wide margin), the election is still seen as a defeat. The majority of the polls were giving her a 5/6 percent margin ahead of Bullrich (Cambiemos). Even the goverment thought that they would lose the province of Buenos Aires. Also, Cambiemos won in Santa Cruz Province by a wide margin of almost 25%, which is the "birthplace" of Kirchnerism.
Probably the results of the general election in October won't be much different from this primaries, Cambiemos will win some seats in deputies and in senators, but it will still need to negotiate with the different peronists sectors for the approval of laws. I think that if they repeat this results, this will give the goverment a big impulse to push forward for wider reforms specially regarding taxes, social security and particularly since the brazilian reform, in labor to remain competitive.